The original field of 16 drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs will be officially cut in half after Sunday.
The final hurdle to make it into the Round of 8 is the Charlotte Roval, which in a very short time has become one of the most chaotic races of the year. In the current grid of 12 drivers, just one has already secured themselves in the next round. That would be Denny Hamlin, who locked up a bid by virtue of his win at Las Vegas.
The Roval now is the battleground to determine which seven other drivers will join him, with four having their seasons ended. Here is where each of those 11 stand entering today.
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All scenarios are in the event of no new winner.
Controlling Their Own Destiny
No. 5 Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports (22 points above cutoff)
Larson, who had a much larger gap entering Talladega, saw north of 40 points of it go up in smoke at Talledega. The driver of the No. 5 car got nailed on the driver’s side door in an incident where he was simply a victim of circumstance. In fact, Larson has a worse average finish at Talledega (24.5) than he does at any other track where he has more than one start. His two-race sample size at the Charlotte Roval is not much to go off of, but it is worth noting his results there are not spectacular either.
What inspires some confidence, on the other hand, is Larson’s road course results this year. How about four top-threes, a pair of wins, and an average finish of 8.83 for the dirt track kid? While his gap could have been much more manageable than it is right now, Larson should still be fine for today. To guarantee that he moves on, he needs to secure 34 points.
No. 22 Joey Logano – Team Penske (21 points above cutoff)
Logano has had a very good start to this round of the postseason despite not winning. The Connecticut native was running third at the time the Talledega race was called due to rain, which helps his cause. What also helps out is picking up 23 stage points. Logano has also never finished outside the top-10 at the Roval, either, which inspires confidence. Like Larson, Logano’s road to the next round is in his control, needing 35 points to guarantee he moves on.
No. 2 Brad Keselowski – Team Penske (21 points above cutoff)
Keselowski enters today in the exact same situation as his aforementioned teammate. Just like Logano, Keselowski has also done a great job racking up stage points along the way (33 in total). The 2012 Cup Champion probably would not tell you that Charlotte Roval is his absolute best track. With that said, however, averaging an 18th at a track as chaotic as the Roval could be worse, especially considering that average is being held back by a 31st in 2018.
No. 19 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing (20 points above cutoff)
Truex enters today after a run similar to the previous two drivers. A pair of solid results at Las Vegas and Talladega put him on a good path to the next round. As for his previous results at the Roval, he has finished seventh in both of his last two runs there, in addition to being precisely one Jimmie Johnson going for the kill on the last lap away from winning the first-ever running of the race.
It is safe to say there is some optimism with the No. 19 car for this weekend. An old friend of that program, Cole Pearn, is even coming on as the second spotter, which bodes well. For Truex Jr. to secure his spot in the Round of 8, he needs 36 points.
No. 12 Ryan Blaney – Team Penske (15 points above cutoff)
Next up is the first-ever winner of the Charlotte Roval in the Cup Series. Being only 15 points above the cutoff feels slightly concerning, but then you remember Blaney has raked at the Roval. It is his best track in terms of average finish with multiple starts (4.67), a win, and no finishes worse than eighth. Despite a 15th and fifth along with 12 stage points, Blaney will need to find some more of that Roval magic to move on. 41 points would guarantee that he does just that.
No. 9 Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports (Nine points above cutoff)
Bad news: the defending Cup Series champion is only nine points safe from being eliminated in the second round. Significantly better news: Elliott is really, really good at the Roval. He has won this race in each of the last two years and finished sixth in the inaugural race. So, in short, it may seem less than ideal on paper, but Elliott is in a great spot today. If he can steer clear of trouble, it feels like the floor for a finish is 10th. However, there is that whole Kevin Harvick thing, so if you are a No. 9 fan, keep that in mind. To outright clinch, Elliott needs 47 points.
No. 18 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing (Nine points above cutoff)
Busch could represent the top surprise elimination pick today, although his results this postseason would lead you to the contrary. Outside of a third-place run two weeks ago in Vegas, Busch has just two top-10s in addition to a triad of finishes outside the top-20 at Darlington, Bristol, and Talledega. It also doesn’t help out his case to move on that he has a whopping zero finishes at the Roval better than 30th. So, needless to say, Rowdy Nation has ample reason to be in panic mode. In any event, however, his clinching scenario is the same as Elliott’s: 47 points.
Roval Underdogs
No. 4 Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Hass Racing (Nine points below cutoff)
Despite starting out the postseason with five straight top-10s, a lack of wins and playoff points may do Harvick in at the end of the day. The good news is that he has a struggling Busch in front of him and not even double-digit points at that. Harvick has done well in the past at the Roval, which also helps. However, in the event that he does not advance, maybe the “have your worst season in a decade” strategy should be tossed aside.
No. 20 Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing (22 points below cutoff)
Bell is not quite at the mark where he absolutely needs a win but realistically would probably need one to move on today. That would not be a complete shock as Bell won the Daytona Road Course race all the way back in January. What likely did him in was a finish at Las Vegas two laps down in 24th. Again, it is not a win-or-go-home situation, but it may as well be today.
No. 24 William Byron – Hendrick Motorsports (44 points below cutoff)
The final two drivers have both had a miserable time in Round 2, Byron less so than Bowman. The driver of the No. 24 needs an absolute miracle to move on today. Even if he were to win both stages and finish top-five, it still may not even matter. A win is Byron’s easiest path forward, but he has been good-not-great at the Roval in the past, averaging a little over a 15th.
No. 48 Alex Bowman – Hendrick Motorsports (52 points below cutoff)
It is a shame that Bowman is in this spot as he feels like a driver who can move through the cracks and win the whole thing. To cut to the chase, it is as close to win-or-go-home as it can get without entirely being so. He can make it in with help, of course, but Bowman will likely need an unrealistic amount of it today. More bizarre things have happened before, so do not count him out just yet.
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