Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | January 3rd, 2020
The 2019 NFL regular season is over and now just 12 teams remain in the chase for a Super Bowl trophy. Wild Card weekend starts tomorrow and we have four games over the next two days, where it’s simple: win or go home! Many betters have already put money down on futures bets for conference champions and Super Bowl winners. However, let’s not miss out on the great action in this weekend’s games.
To recap last week, both guys had a good week. Mike went 10-6 ATS but just 1-2 on his favorite bets as Miles Sanders left the game with an ankle injury and failed to score a touchdown. Meanwhile, Gio went 8-8 ATS and 2-1 on his favorite bets as the Ravens won outright, blowing out the Steelers despite sitting several starters including Lamar Jackson and didn’t need the two points. In total, Mike went 11-8 (57.9% hit rate) while Gio went 10-9 (52.6% hit rate) on their 19 bets from last week. However, neither of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do this week.
Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
|
Mike |
Game |
Gio |
|
Bills +3 |
Bills +3 at Texans |
Bills +3 |
|
Titans +5 |
Titans +5 at Patriots |
Patriots -5 |
|
Saints -8 |
Vikings +8 at Saints |
Vikings +8 |
|
Eagles +2 |
Seahawks -2 at Eagles |
Eagles +2 |
Favorite Spread Bet
Mike – Saints -8 vs Vikings (-110)
There are four contenders in the NFC. The Saints are one, the Vikings aren’t. Coming off two straight postseasons with a heartbreaking loss, including the Minneapolis Miracle in 2018, the Saints won’t come out of the gate flat Sunday. They want their revenge on the Vikings and there is a reason why this number keeps growing. Despite being the three seed in the NFC, the Saints finished tied for the best record in the conference. The Vikings have no chance in this game, regardless if Dalvin Cook is healthy or not, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Saints will by 14. If you are feeling risky, take the Saints -13.5 on the alternative line at +175.
Gio – Eagles +2 vs Seahawks (-109)
Don’t let the fact that the Eagles had a rocky path to this playoff spot make you think that this will be a cakewalk for the Seahawks. The Seahawks play a lot of close, one-score games that are won in the fourth quarter. They won’t pull away early, leaving the Eagles in it until the end. Carson Wentz is starting his first career playoff game and will want to prove himself. The Eagles are going to pull off the upset in Philly.
Favorite Over/Under Bet
Mike – Titans at Patriots over 7.5 in the first quarter (-113)
I love these bets cause rarely is there just one score in the first quarter. The Patriots’ defense hasn’t been the same in the second half of the season. They gave up an average of just 7.6 points per game in the first half of the season compared to 20.5 in the season half. Meanwhile, the Titans are averaging 30.4 points per game in the 10 games Ryan Tannehill has started this season. The Titans don’t have an elite defense and despite their recent struggles, the Patriots should be able to score a few times. All you need is a touchdown and a field goal to cash this bet. The Titans might score 10 points in the first quarter by themselves.
Gio – Seahawks at Eagles over 7.5 in the first quarter (-118)
The Eagles’ weak secondary paired with the playmaking ability of Wentz should provide more than 7.5 points in the first quarter. As Mike said, there is rarely just a single score in a quarter and I’m willing to bet the same in this game. I don’t expect this to be a very high-scoring game by the end, but it shouldn’t be to hard to eclipse this point total in the first quarter.
Favorite Prop Bet
Mike – Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+180)
Just as a reminder, this bet only cashes if Allen scores a rushing or receiving touchdown, passing touchdowns don’t count. However, Allen scored nine rushing touchdowns this season, first among quarterbacks and eighth overall, seven of which came on the road. The Texans will get back J.J. Watt for this game but all that means is Allen might have to scramble for a first down in the red zone and end up with a touchdown. At almost 2-1 odds, this is a bet I can’t pass up.
Gio – A.J. Brown to score a touchdown (+175)
Brown has nine total touchdowns this season and four in his last four games. He has been that guy for Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans’ offense. I’m unsure if he’ll draw Stephon Gilmore or Jonathan Jones in coverage, but he should be able to out-speed both of them. He makes big plays happen, as you can see when you look at his 20.2 yards per reception. This game won’t be easy for the Patriots, as Brown and Derrick Henry have been on fire lately and will create trouble for the Patriots’ defense.
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