Week 15 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | December 14th, 2019

With three weeks to go in the 2019 NFL season, a few teams have locked in a playoff spot while a few more can clinch a playoff berth with a win this weekend. There are six games this weekend where both teams are mathematically still involved in the playoff picture, either fighting for a first-round bye, division title, or a wild-card spot. This includes the Sunday night game between the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, where both teams enter the weekend in the two wild-card spots in the AFC playoff picture. With so many critical games this weekend, expect a lot of entertaining games with close outcomes.

To recap last week, Gio missed the week with a personal emergency but is back this week. Mike had a solid week, going 8-6-1 ATS, 8-7 on the over/unders, and 2-1 on his favorite bets. He missed going 3-0 on his favorite bets as the Jacksonville Jaguars appear to have quit on their head coach and got blown out by the Los Angeles Chargers. In total, Mike went 18-14-1 (56.1% hit hate) last week.

So let’s see how the guys do this week. Remember neither of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the game so let’s see how we do in week 15. Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Rams -1.5 at Cowboys (-110)

The only time the Cowboys were underdogs this season, before this week, was against the Patriots a few weeks back, where they were 5.5 point underdogs and only lost by four points. Meanwhile, as the favorite, the Rams have covered the spread in five of their last six games, including three straight. This game means much more to the Rams than the Cowboys. The Rams need to win this game as they are in a tight race for a wild card spot with the Vikings (the Rams currently one game back) while the Cowboys know the battle for the NFC title will be determined next week when they face the Eagles. I expect the Rams to come out aggressive and easily cover the 1.5 points.

Gio – Patriots -9 at Bengals

Just because the Patriots’ offense has struggled lately, does not mean that they should only be nine point favorites over the worst team in football. The Bengals don’t do anything particularly well on either side of the ball. Their defense will get torched by the Patriots and their offense will get swallowed up. I don’t see the Bengals being able to compete even a little bit in this game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are out with a vengeance.

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Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Bengals team total under 15.5 (-105)

Despite giving up 23 or more points in three of their last four games (all losses), the Patriots’ defense has held teams to just 12.9 points per game this season. That total is 3.4 points less than the second-best scoring defense in the league. Meanwhile, the Bengals score just 15.2 points per game, the second-fewest in the league. No matter which way you cut and slice it, there is no way the Bengals score 16 points on the Patriots. With “Spygate 2.0” hanging over their heads, the Patriots will be more motivated than normal to put a beat down from start to finish on the Bengals. The Patriots defense should bounce back this week and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals score more than seven points in this game.

Gio – Patriots at Bengals under 41

Just because I think they’re going to win by more than nine, does not mean that I think that the game will be collectively high scoring. As Mike said, the Bengals should by no means but up 16 points on the Patriots. The Patriots will have their way with the Bengals defense though. The final score will be somewhere around 27-6 in favor of the Patriots, of course.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Ian Thomas to score a touchdown (+300)

Thomas will start his second game in a row as Greg Olsen has been ruled out with a concussion. Last week, Thomas had 10 targets, second-best on the team, only behind Christian McCaffrey. The 10 targets were easily a season-high for Thomas and he had the only touchdown for the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have given up 11 touchdowns to tight ends this season, third-most in the league, including two over the last three weeks. At +300 to score at any time, I will happily take those odds.

Gio – Chris Carson scores two touchdowns (+325)

With Rashaad Penny out, Carson should have ample opportunities to touch the football. The Panthers are a bottom-five team in football in rushing defense which is another factor that favors Carson. He should have at least 20 carries and I’ll say five catches out of the backfield. I say he totals 23 carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns with five catches for 34 yards. Let’s see how close I am.

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