With the NBA lottery fully complete, some NFL fans have contemplated a lottery system for the draft.
The answer to this theoretical scenario is a simple no.
As a whole, the idea of an NFL draft lottery scratches the surface of moronic. From a basic math perspective, the purpose of the lottery fails miserably in the NFL. In the NBA and NHL, only a handful of players contribute to the outcome of a game. Teams with the best individual player win the majority of games, and stars are magnified due to the lack of other players on the court/ice with them at that time.
For the NBA, one LeBron James is worth a minimum of 20 wins and a playoff series. For the NHL, one Sidney Crosby is worth countless points and playoff wins.
In the NFL, this exaggerated value is simply a myth.
No matter the talent of one specific player, a team requires a variety of high-level players in order to even sniff the playoffs. Tanking in the traditional NBA style is pointless in the NFL because no one player can have that great of an impact. Purely from the number of snaps a player is on the field, no offensive or defensive player will play significantly more than 50 percent of all snaps. In the NBA, a star player would play offense and defense for more than 75 percent of the contest, including most of (if not all) of the fourth quarter.
Therefore, the inklings of an NFL draft lottery serve no purpose. Tanking is not a viable strategy in the NFL. Even the most impactful players, namely quarterbacks, are not free playoff runs. The likes of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees all have tremendous support staffs from the head coach to the front office to the players they share the field with. All four teams are littered with stars on both sides of the ball, and the quarterbacks could not have nearly enough success if they did not have stud pass catchers, great backfields, or elite defensive talent.
Football is the definition of a team game, and one person cannot have a gigantic impact on the course of a game on a consistent basis. For every game-winning play a star quarterback has made, he has needed his defense to either set him up or close the deal in the ensuing drives. For every do-or-die touchdown drive, there are plenty of crucial kicks made by people who were out of the league just months earlier or later. The NFL does not lend itself to tanking or to importance on just one player. From a logical perspective, the lottery is a terrible idea.
With that said, the monetization of an NFL draft lottery would haul in truckloads of cash for the NFL. If the NFL wishes to steal even more money from fans and supporters, a lottery could be useful. Despite failing from a logical standpoint, the NFL could pursue a lottery system just for financial gain. It would serve no purpose for competitive balance or for tanking protection, but the NFL would certainly cash in on another spectacle.
In all seriousness, an NFL draft lottery would not add anything to the sport besides some extra cash in the NFL’s wallet.
