Welcome back to another edition of Cash Game Plays. This season has been wacky and wild, but we are rolling along as strong as ever. The clock is ticking, and we have lineups to set before this massive 13-game slate kicks off. Let’s buckle down and see what we have.
The cash game article’s goal is to outline some safe plays while also providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point is for us to make some money.
Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That should go without saying but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis. Cash Games are basically H2Hs, 50/50s, and Double-Ups. The amount of winnings might be limited but have a higher probability of hitting.
Everyone wants to know how many points a guy scored and not necessarily the route that took them there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are the NFL DFS Cash Game Plays for Week 14.
As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite options. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with that lock emoji will be fixtures in my main lineup.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DK, $9,100 FD)
Remember when people were talking about Rodgers falling off? How ridiculous does that sound after seeing what he’s been doing this year? Rodgers is averaging 282.9 passing yards and three touchdowns per game this season. He gets a dream matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are fourth-worst in pass DVOA (23.88 percent). The Packers have the highest implied team total on the board. If you can afford Rodgers, he’s a great play this week.
Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK, $7,900 FD)
Attacking the Jacksonville Jaguars with a running back will be the popular move, but they are maybe even worse against opposing passing attacks. They sit second-worst in pass DVOA (25.57 percent) and have allowed the fourth-most DK points to the position. Ever since taking over as the Titans quarterback, he’s been efficient. This season, he has a 106.5 quarterback rating and has 26 touchdowns to only five interceptions. If you want to save a little salary, Tannehill is a fine pivot away from Rodgers.
Before we get busy with the running back selections, it’s important to note that the absence of Myles Gaskin completely changed the slate this week. Before the news broke that he was out, Gaskin would be one of my top running back picks.
Derrick Henry ($8,700 DK, $9,600 FD)
Henry should get plenty of carries as he normally does. The big bruiser has one of the highest odds to score a touchdown on the slate if you are looking at player props odds. The Titans are favored by 7.5 points, and the Jaguars are 23rd in rush DVOA (-3.4 percent). They also allow the fourth-most DK points per game to the position (29.1). DK sportsbook has Henry’s rushing yards Over/Under set at 107.5. If you want to spend up for him, I can’t and won’t argue with you even if his passing game volume lowers his floor.
James Robinson ($7,500 DK, $8,000 FD)
At this point, Robinson has to be considered a weekly lineup staple. We are in Week 14, and Robinson has yet to produce less than double-digit DK points in any game this season. His usage continues to be remarkable, averaging over 21 touches per game. Even if the game goes sideways and the Jacksonville Jaguars wind up in a negative game script, Robinson should get targeted out of the backfield. He’s had six targets in each of the last two games, and he ranks sixth in the NFL in targets among all running backs.
David Montgomery ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD) – 🔒
Monty is getting great matchup after great matchup. Last week, it was the Detroit Lions, where he put up 27.1 DK points. In Week 12, it was the Green Bay Packers, where he scored 28.3 DK points. This time, he gets to face the Houston Texans, allowing the second-most DK points per game to opposing running backs and rank 27th in rush DVOA. I have no reason to believe Monty can’t have another good game in this spot with another top-three matchup.
J.D. McKissic ($4,900 DK, $5,300 FD)
Antonio Gibson will not play because of a toe injury. Alex Smith loves dumping off passes to his running backs, and McKissic should be on the field for over 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. The San Francisco 49ers allow the fewest DK points per game to opposing tight ends. Many people will be rostering Logan Thomas, but I think that could be the wrong Washington Football Team chalk player to own. Expect McKissic to get plenty of targets, as he’s currently the second-most targeted running back in the NFL behind only Alvin Kamara.
Davante Adams ($9,300 DK, $9,600 FD) – 🔒
I’ve wavered back and forth about spending up on Adams in Cash Games all week. Why? Because the salary severely limits what else you can spend on, and I wasn’t feeling comfortable with the players around him, I was ending up with. However, I’m no longer overthinking it. Adams is as safe as safe can get this season, and that’s ultimately what we are always striving for in these types of contests. He’ll be playing in a dome in Detroit, with the highest implied team total on the entire slate, against a putrid Lions secondary. Lock it up.
Curtis Samuel ($5,200 DK, $5,900 FD)
Samuel has been a solid GPP option at different price points this season. Now that D.J. Moore has officially been ruled out due to a positive COVID-19 test, Samuel’s already steady diet of volume should increase. On top of averaging near six targets per game, he averages over two rushing attempts per game and gets some red zone carries as well. In three of his last four games, he has five or more catches and 70-plus receiving yards. The matchup against the Denver Broncos isn’t terrific. Still, I think the Panthers get creative enough, and Samuel will be heavily involved, especially with Mike Davis’ declining efficiency and Christian McCaffrey being ruled out once again.
Breshad Perriman ($3,900, $5,900 FD)
Denzel Mims had to deal with a family emergency, so he was ruled out this week. Jamison Crowder is listed as questionable and missed practice on Friday with a calf injury. The lone starting receiver that seems to be the healthiest is Perriman. The New York Jets aren’t a sexy team to target, and they are hard to trust, but this is a solid price for Perriman in a good matchup. The Seattle Seahawks rank 27th in pass DVOA (20.19 percent) and have given up the most DK points per game to opposing wideouts. Perriman is seventh in the league with 15.3 average targeted air yards. If we expect the game to go the way we think it will, and the Seahawks win easily, Perriman will see plenty of volume while the Jets chase points.
Dallas Goedert ($4,000 DK, $5,600 FD)
We don’t know what to expect from Jalen Hurts getting his first career NFL start at quarterback. However, he looked capable in relief of Carson Wentz last week, and I could see some reliance on his tight end in this spot against a tough defense in the New Orleans Saints. Over the last three games, he’s caught at least five passes in each and has scored two touchdowns in two of those contests. I’ll be spending down at the tight end spot on the player I’m about to mention. But if you feel uncomfortable with it, Goedert isn’t a terrible option.
Cole Kmet ($2,900 DK, $4,600 FD) – 🔒
If you are an avid reader of my weekly DFS articles, you saw Mr. Kmet pop up in the Dart Throws section of my GPP article last week. While Darren Waller wound up being the slate-breaking pick at the tight end spot, Kmet didn’t disappoint. The rookie out of Notre Dame hauled in five of seven targets for 37 yards and a touchdown, which was good enough for 14.7 DK points. Additionally, for the second week in a row, he was on the field for 54 of the Bears offensive snaps, both season-highs. Jimmy Graham has been phased out. Even while I was high on him last week, his seven targets were eye-popping. That’s the same number of targets Allen Robinson received, which tied for a team-high for the game. At $2,900, his salary only increased by $400. This is a steal and a great punt option. Let’s take advantage.
Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles
I’ll be punting the defense position per usual. I think each of these teams offers similar expected points production from a floor and ceiling perspective. Andy Dalton is good for an interception a game. Whoever will be under center for the Bengals, whether it’s Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley, stinks. And the Eagles are actually a solid unit that gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback. The question then becomes, will Taysom Hill dropback enough for that to matter?