The Los Angeles Dodgers came back to beat the San Diego Padres 5-4 on Saturday, taking a 4-2 lead the rivalry series in the early going of 2021. The fourth and final game of the current set pops off on Sunday Night Baseball this evening. Not only should we have a great game, but we have ourselves a DFS Sunday Showdown Standoff with and opportunity to add to our accounts. Buckle up.
As always, my primary goal in the Showdown games is to try to pick players that will not only do well, but also in a combination that few others are likely to have. This often means a few unorthodox lineups, as is the case today.
If you’re looking for Fernando Tatis Jr. you might as well turn the page; He ain’t here. He’s hot, and he will be in the majority of lineups, but Tatis is batting a woeful .083 against Dustin May in his early career. Instead, I’m spreading that money out so that we don’t have to draft Joe Benchplayer with our last bit of pocket change. Away we go.
All prices are for DraftKings Showdown.
Captain
Joe Musgrove, SD ($15,300)
The Padres righty is 2-2 on the young season with a miniscule 1.04 earned run average and an eye-popping 0.54 WHIP. He is near the top of the league in getting batters to chase balls and sits in the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage. His fastball has a devastating spin and Musgrove is near the top of the league in swings-and-misses, as well. That means strikeouts, which means points. In his last hard luck loss against the Brewers, he tossed 7 innings with 13 punchouts.
While May is a good pitcher, the weather in Los Angeles should be a chilly 57 degrees around game time, which is going to seriously hinder the lateral movement that he leans on so heavily. Advantage Musgrove, whose slider and cutter nearly both go straight down causing batters to chase. This is an easy pick for captain, even against a capable Dodgers offense.
Crew
Jurickson Profar, SD ($6,200)
The switch-hitter has the ability to hit the ball down either line, but the most intriguing thing here is the walks. As mentioned before, May is likely going to have some trouble getting the right movement on his pitches which opens the door for take, take, take. Profar is batting just .254 on the season, though he’s drawn 13 walks and has accounted for four stolen bases thus far. As long as he is patient at the plate, he can get on base and do some damage. At the very least, he’ll be in the pitcher’s head enough to force mistakes at the plate which benefit the hitter.
Max Muncy, LA ($8,400)
After beginning the season on a ridiculous tear, Muncy has cooled off considerably. It is a small sample size, but he’s had some success against Musgrove, going 5-9 (.556) against the righthander. Muncy owns a very respectable .262/.422/.462 triple slash and takes a walk nearly 20 percent of the time. While the lefty hitter can always put the ball over the fence in right field, I’m not so sure Musgrove will put a pitch where Mad Max can yank one. That said, a couple base hits and a gapper in that expansive outfield is certainly not out of the question.
Manny Machado, SD ($7,800)
Machado has been roughed up this season with some back issues but was on a bit of a hot streak prior, going 7-for-15 (.467) while scoring 5 runs and putting one over the wall during the stretch. His OPS over those games was 1.193. He got a day off on April 20 and by all accounts the aches and pains he was suffering are no longer bothering him. With just two hits in his last 19 at bats, he’s due. Today is the day he lights the fuse and sends a bomb over the heads of the outfielders.
Austin Barnes, LA ($6,400)
The Dodgers catcher’s stats don’t look good on paper, but the key is his position in the lineup. Pitchers tend to get through the tough stretches of the card and relax when they hit the bottom third. While Barnes’ average currently sits right on the Mendoza Line, he is a pull hitter who is most likely going to try to get that swing out in front of the pitch early. By the second time through the lineup, he’ll be hoping to set the table for the top of the lineup.
Once again, this is one of those players unlikely to be rostered by opponents, so if he is able to get on base a pair of times and score a run, that’s free points. Barnes is looking for his first home run and has a trio of RBIs in limited duty this season.
Victor Caratini, SD ($5,800)
The switch-hitting backstop can hit the ball to all fields, and when getting a hanger over the middle he’ll beat any shift. The average isn’t much to look at, but like Barnes there’s opportunity to get on base and let the big boppers at the top get him around the basepaths. Caratini does have a home run, but does have a pair of doubles, nine RBI and six walks, so he’s been on base in the midst of sharing his catching duties. He also caught Musgrove’s last start when the pitcher fanned 13.
If Caratini is not in the lineup for some reason (it’s not yet posted at this point), a pivot to Tommy Pham ($5,200) or backup catcher Luis Campusano ($5,400) are also within budget.
Other notable plus-plays: Chris Taylor ($8,800), Eric Hosmer ($7,600)
Best of luck to everyone in your lineups tonight. Remember, in the Showdown, the key is the inexpensive guys you select last. If you beat your opponents there, you’ll fly up the scoreboard.
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