Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for TNF: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Tonight we have a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.

Patrick Mahomes Under 281.5 Passing Yards (-115)

While the former MVP hasn’t put up the video game-like numbers we are accustomed to seeing, Mahomes has been one of the better quarterbacks this season. However, he has averaged only 280.1 passing yards per game this season, the lowest of his career. After throwing for over 335 yards in the first two games this season, Mahomes has thrown for over 280 yards only once since then. Furthermore, Mahomes has more games with 260 or fewer passing yards this season (six) than games with over 280 passing yards (four). Meanwhile, the Chargers have held quarterbacks to only 222.5 passing yards per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. In the Week 3 matchup, Mahomes had only 260 passing yards against the Chargers. Expect a similar outcome in tonight’s rematch.

Justin Herbert Over 287.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The second-year quarterback has been nothing short of spectacular this season, averaging 294 passing yards per game. Furthermore, Herbert is fourth in the NFL with 3,822 passing yards, only 104 behind Derek Carr for second in the league. More importantly, Herbert has been on fire lately, averaging 304.7 passing yards per game over the past six weeks. He threw for at least 300 yards in four of those six games. Furthermore, Herbert is tied with Tom Brady for the most 300 plus yard passing games this season with seven. By comparison, Mahomes has only four such games. With the No. 1 see in the AFC playoff potentially on the line, Herbert is more likely to have over 350 passing yards tonight than under 287.5 passing yards.

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Travis Kelce Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Kelce has struggled since the bye week, totaling six receptions on 12 targets for 54 receiving yards in two games. However, he was playing great before the bye week, averaging 74.6 receiving yards per game. He has totaled at least 65 receiving yards in over 60 percent of the games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers have given up an average of 56.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season, including 66 receiving yards to Kyle Rudolph last week. Furthermore, they have given up over 120 receiving yards to tight ends twice this season, including in Week 3 against the Chiefs. In that matchup, Kelce had seven receptions for 104 receiving yards. He should have no trouble totaling 70 or more receiving yards in this game.

Mike Williams Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

After a strong start this season, Williams went through a several-week-long slump. However, he broke out of that slump recently, averaging 76.8 receiving yards per game over the past four games. Williams had at least 61 receiving yards in three of those four contests. More importantly, he has averaged 70.4 receiving yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up an average of 146.2 receiving yards per game this season to wide receivers. They have given up over 170 receiving yards to wide receivers in four games this season, including last week. Furthermore, Williams had over 100 receiving yards in his past two matchups against the Chiefs, including earlier this season. He could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.

Tyreek Hill Under 82.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Despite being arguably the fastest player in the NFL, defenses have been able to slow down Hill this season. He has averaged 79.2 receiving yards per game this season, his lowest average since 2019. More importantly, Hill has finished with over 82.5 receiving yards only four times this season. By comparison, he has six games this season with under 65 receiving yards, including the Week 3 matchup against the Chargers. Meanwhile, Los Angles has held wide receivers to only 136.7 receiving yards per game this season, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. They have also held wide receivers to under 90 receiving yards in four games this season, including two of the past three. With defenses defending deep, it has limited Hill’s explosive ability. Expect a quiet performance from Hill tonight.