Merry Christmas everyone! Hopefully, you were good this season and made it to the championship game. To kick off Week 16, we have a Christmas Day special between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints. We have made it to the end of the fantasy season and all that matters now is setting the perfect lineup for the championship game, so which players from this game should you play and which you should avoid? Let’s dive into it!
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback – Kirk Cousins
Over his last seven games, Cousins is averaging 19.3 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 17 in every contest. During that span, he is averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game while only throwing three interceptions. However, he faces a Saints defense that has shut down quarterbacks recently. Over their last seven games, the Saints are holding quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes to an average of 7.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, during that span, quarterbacks have scored under 13 fantasy points five times. Cousins has been great for fantasy owners recently, but this week he’s a low-end QB2 that you should leave on the bench.
Running Back – Dalvin Cook
After struggling with injuries early in his career, Cook has stayed healthy this season, playing in all but one game so far. On the season, he is the RB2, averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, giving up 17.9 per game. However, over their last two games, running backs are averaging 28.4 fantasy points per game and have scored three rushing touchdowns. Despite the tough matchup on paper, Cook is his usual plug and play RB1.
Wide Receiver – Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen
When the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs away in the offseason, many wondered how it would impact the Vikings from a fantasy perspective. The truth is, it hasn’t. In the past, both Diggs and Thielen would finish the season as top 12 wide receivers, and currently, Thielen is the WR12, while Jefferson is the WR8. Both are averaging 17 fantasy points per game and have a favorable matchup this week. While the Saints have a talented cornerback duo in Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, they have given up plenty of fantasy points to wide receivers recently.
The Saints are giving up about the league average, 35 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. However, they have struggled over their last five games. Removing the Week 12 matchup against the Denver Broncos, the Saints have given up at least 40 fantasy points to wide receivers in three of their last four games. Given Jefferson’s recent success, he is the better starting option of the two, but both wide receivers are top 20 plays this week.
Tight End – Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith
At the start of the season, the Saints struggled to stop tight ends, giving up an average of 22.3 fantasy points per game to the position before their bye week. However, since then, the Saints have held tight ends not named Travis Kelce to an average of 4.7 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the Saints have given up only one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5, and that was last week to Kelce.
On the other side of the ball, Rudolph and Smith have played critical roles in the Vikings’ success this season. However, it hasn’t led to consistent fantasy production as Rudolph is averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game while Smith is averaging 6.4 per game. Both tight ends have missed time this season, but that hasn’t always resulted in fantasy points for the other. Rudolph has missed the last two weeks with a foot injury, and during that span, Smith had 16.3 fantasy points in Week 14 but only 6.7 last week. Between the Vikings’ talented wide receiver duo and the Saints’ recent success shutting down tight ends, avoid Rudolph and Smith this week, even if Rudolph misses the game.
Defense/Special Teams
With so many new and young faces starting the Vikings’ defense this season, everyone expected their D/ST to struggle. They are the D/ST25 this season, averaging 2.6 fantasy points per game. They have scored more than six fantasy points in only two games this season while scoring five or fewer in 67 percent of their contests. Furthermore, the Vikings D/ST has scored a total of one fantasy point over the last two weeks, giving up an average of 29.5 points per game. Meanwhile, D/STs have had little success when facing the Saints, averaging 2.4 fantasy points per game this season. D/STs have scored more than six fantasy points only twice against the Saints. Find a streaming D/ST this week as the Vikings aren’t a good option.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback – Drew Brees
After missing the previous 4.5 games with multiple rib fractures, Brees returned last week and scored 19.4 fantasy points. He completed only 44 percent of his passes in that game, by far a season-low, and looked rusty at times. However, after not playing for a month and dealing with healing ribs, that was expected. Meanwhile, the Vikings have given up about the league average, 18 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. They have given up an average of about two passing touchdowns per game, giving up at least two in over half of their games. Even without Michael Thomas, the matchup and his success last week makes Brees a high-end QB2 this week. For those of you asking, Taysom Hill belongs on the waiver wire.
Running Back – Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray
With Hill starting, Kamara’s fantasy production took a hit as he scored under 11 fantasy points in half of the games Hill started. However, over the last three weeks, Kamara is back to his old form, averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game, scoring at least one touchdown in each game. More importantly, Kamara has 15.5 or more fantasy points in every game Brees has started this season. Meanwhile, Murray had his third double-digit fantasy performance over his past five games, scoring 10.9 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs last week. However, with Brees under center, Murray is averaging only 8.2 fantasy points per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Vikings have given up about the league average of 23 fantasy points per game to running backs. However, since the bye week, the Vikings have given up 23.5 or more fantasy points in five of their last eight games. Furthermore, last week the Vikings allowed David Montgomery to go off for 146 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and a season-high 29.2 fantasy points. This week Kamara is his usual plug-and-play RB1 while Murray should be avoided except for deeper leagues, and only as a desperate flex option.
Wide Receiver – Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith
Right before their game against the Chiefs last week, the Saints placed Thomas on injured reserve in hopes of getting him healthy for the playoffs. Unfortunately for those who drafted Thomas in the first round, you probably didn’t make it this far. However, if you did, congratulations. With Thomas out of the lineup, Sanders takes over as the top option at wide receiver. He is averaging just under 11 fantasy points per game and scored 11.6 last week despite a tough matchup. Meanwhile, Smith is dealing with an ankle injury and might be held out of this game as the Saints have Super Bowl expectations.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have given away fantasy points to wide receivers like Santa gives away toys to children. The Vikings are giving up an average of 41.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the sixth-worst in the league. Furthermore, they have given up at least one receiving touchdown to wide receivers in 86 percent of their games this season. If Smith plays, he is a high-risk flex option while Sanders is a safe floor WR2 regardless if Smith is active or not.
Tight End – Jared Cook
Cook started the season hot, scoring 12 or more fantasy points in four of his first six games. However, over his last seven games, Cook has scored more than 13 fantasy points only once, averaging 4.9 per game. Meanwhile, the Vikings are giving up about the league average of 12 fantasy points per game to tight ends, giving up five touchdowns to the position over their last 10 games. However, the Vikings have done a good job slowing down tight ends recently. Over their last four games, tight ends have one touchdown and are averaging 9.7 fantasy points per game. With Brees throwing to him, Cook always has a chance to find the end zone. However, if he doesn’t, he likely finishes the week outside the top 18 tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
The Saints D/ST is the fifth-highest scoring D/ST this season, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game; however, they are very boom or bust. Of their 106 fantasy points scored, 75 percent of them have come in five of their games. Outside of those five games, the Saints D/ST is averaging only three fantasy points per game. Furthermore, they are averaging only three fantasy points per game over their last three outings. Meanwhile, D/STs have been hit or miss against the Vikings this season, averaging 5.9 fantasy points per game. They have scored seven or more fantasy points in only 36 percent of their games against the Vikings. Given both team’s boom or bust history, the Saints D/ST is low-end D/ST1 this week but should be avoided, if possible.
Recap
Cousins: Avoid
Cook: Must Start Stud
Jefferson: Low-End WR1
Thielen: Mid WR2
Rudolph: Avoid
Smith: Avoid
Vikings D/ST: Avoid
Brees: High-End QB2
Kamara: Must Start Stud
Murray: Avoid
Sanders: Safe Floor WR2
Smith: Risky Flex Option
Cook: Avoid
Saints D/ST: Risky Low-End D/ST1
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