The 2020 NFL season is coming to an end, with only four weeks left in the regular season. Only a handful of teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and several playoff spots should come down to the final week. With plenty of close and exciting football to end the season, gamblers are in a prime position to make some money.
To recap last week, I finished 7-7 on my 14 prop bets. The lock of the week hit as Cam Newton had under 70 passing yards against the Los Angeles Chargers, easily hitting the under. With the lock of the week, I finished Week 13 with an 8-7 record, bringing my total on the season to 77-83. However, I had a few bad beats last week. Both Antonio Gibson and Frank Gore left their games within the first few plays after suffering injuries. Neither returned and cost me the over on both props and a potential 10-5 week. Unfortunately, that’s how gambling works, and there is nothing you can do about it. That said, let’s dive into the best prop bets for Week 14.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Despite his targets being inconsistent this season, Gesicki has made the most of them. He is averaging 44.8 receiving yards per game and has at least 35 in five straight games, topping 40 or more in four of them. Furthermore, Gesicki is coming off a season-high nine catches on 11 targets last week. With Preston Williams out of the lineup, Gesicki has turned into a trusted target for Tua Tagovailoa. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have struggled to slow down tight ends this season, giving up an average of 55.8 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, they have given up an average of 102.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends over their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Gesicki hits the over on this prop by halftime.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The undrafted rookie is third in the league with 968 rushing yards and should go over the 1,000-yard mark sometime tomorrow. Robinson is averaging 81 rushing yards per game this season and has 73 or more in six straight games, averaging 101 per game during that span. Furthermore, Robinson has at least 17 rushing attempts in each of his last six games after having 16 or fewer in five of his first six games. Meanwhile, the Titans have struggled against the run this season, giving up 94 or more rushing yards in over half their games. In their Week 2 matchup, Robinson had 102 rushing yards on 16 rushing attempts, so expect him to have another 100 yard game against the Titans tomorrow.
Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants
Wayne Gallman Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Since taking over for Devonta Freeman, Gallman has played the best football of his career. Over the last five games as the starter, Gallman is averaging 78.8 rushing yards per game, rushing for at least 53 in four straight. Furthermore, Gallman has 40 rushing attempts for 229 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 96.3 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. They have given up 90 or more rushing yards to running backs in 75 percent of their games. Expect Gallman to have his third straight game with 90 or more rushing yards.
Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)
Over the last five weeks, Cousins has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league, throwing at least two touchdowns in every game, totaling 14 during that span. Furthermore, Cousins has thrown two or more touchdowns in 75 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have struggled to slow down the pass this season, giving up an average of just under two passing touchdowns per game. They have given up two or more passing touchdowns in 67 percent of their games this season, including six straight. This game should be a high scoring battle, and Cousins will have no trouble throwing two or more touchdowns for the sixth straight game.
Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears
David Montgomery Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After the Bears’ Week 11 bye, Montgomery has been unstoppable. Over the last two weeks, Montgomery is averaging 14 rushing attempts for 87.5 rushing yards per game to go along with two rushing touchdowns. Furthermore, Montgomery has at least 72 rushing yards in the last three games he has finished. Meanwhile, the Texans have been awful at stopping the run this season. They have given up 88 or more rushing yards to running backs in all but two games. Furthermore, the Texans have given up 100 or more rushing yards to running backs in 75 percent of their games this season. Don’t be surprised if Montgomery goes over on this prop by halftime.
Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals
Ezekiel Elliott Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Zeke showed up on the injury report Friday with a calf injury. However, he should be ready to go tomorrow. While Zeke has struggled this year, he has played his best football of the season since the bye week, rushing for 77 or more yards in two of his last three games. Meanwhile, the Bengals have given up over 100 rushing yards to running backs in 75 percent of their games this season, including three straight. The Cowboys need to win this game to have any shot of the playoff so expect them to feed Zeke plenty.
Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers
Noah Fant Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Fant is still dealing with a high ankle sprain he suffered earlier in the season. However, despite the injury, he has been a consistent target for Drew Lock. Fant is averaging 44.7 receiving yards per game this season, topping 35 or more in all but two games, including the Week 12 game with no quarterback on the active roster. Meanwhile, the Panthers have been shredded by tight ends recently. They have given up at least five receptions and 54 receiving yards to tight ends in five straight games, giving up an average of 89 per game. Don’t be surprised if Fant finishes the game with over 70 receiving yards.
New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 D.K. Metcalf Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Entering Sunday, Metcalf leads the league with 1,119 receiving yards, averaging 93.3 per game. Furthermore, he has nine games this season with 80 or more receiving yards. The three exceptions were in matchups against Patrick Peterson and Jalen Ramsey. The good news for Metcalf is the Jets don’t have a cornerback on the roster anywhere near as talented as Peterson or Ramsey. Furthermore, the Jets have given up an average of 224.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers over their last five games. If the Seahawks are aggressive out of the gate, Metcalf could hit the over on this prop before halftime. This is my lock of the week.
Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders
Jonathan Taylor Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Hopefully, Frank Reich doesn’t bench him this week for some stupid reason, as Taylor has been great over his last two games, rushing for at least 90 yards in each game. Furthermore, he has averaged 5.2 yards per carry during that span. When given the opportunity, Taylor has rushed for over 55 rushing yards in every game that he has gotten 12 or more rushing attempts. Meanwhile, the Raiders have given up 94 or more rushing yards in three straight games, averaging up an average of 132.7 rushing yards to running backs during that span. If Reich gives Taylor 12 or more rushing attempts, he will have no trouble hitting the over on this prop.
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-225)
The payout on this prop is far from ideal, but when it’s all but a lock to hit, you take it. Adams has 13 touchdowns this season, averaging 1.3 per game. He has at least one touchdown in 90 percent of the games he has finished this season, including seven straight. Over the last seven games, Adams is averaging 1.6 touchdowns per game. Furthermore, Adams is Aaron Rodgers‘ go-to guy early in games. Adams has scored the first touchdown of the game in two straight games and five of the last seven. At +450 to score the first touchdown of the game, that is a steal. Rodgers looks Adams way early and often every week, and that won’t change tomorrow. Expect Adams to score at least once, if not twice.
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-210)
In case you’ve been living under a rock, you know Hurts will be making his first career start this week after Doug Pederson benched Carson Wentz. However, don’t expect it to change much for the Eagles’ offense. Hurts completed only five of his 12 pass attempts and threw an interception last week after Wentz was benched. Meanwhile, the Saints have played excellent football over the past five weeks. During that span, they have faced Tom Brady and Matt Ryan twice, yet have given up only two passing touchdowns. Hurts to throw over 0.5 interceptions is -200, and another bet I like from this game. The bottom line is simple: expect Hurts to struggle against the Saints.
Washington Football Team vs San Francisco 49ers
J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions (-128)
Unfortunately, Gibson will miss this game with a toe injury, leaving the running back duties to McKissic and Peyton Barber. Since Alex Smith took over in Week 9, McKissic has been a catching machine, averaging 6.2 receptions per game. Furthermore, when Gibson left the game early last week, McKissic had a season-high 10 receptions against the Steelers. McKissic should see all the running back targets as Barber isn’t a catching back, totaling 59 receptions in 75 career games. Don’t be surprised if McKissic hits the over on this prop early in the second quarter.
Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-155)
After starting his rookie season on fire, Herbert has struggled the last two weeks, throwing one touchdown compared to three interceptions. However, he should bounce back tomorrow against the Falcons as they have given up an average of two passing touchdowns per game. They have given two or more in over half their games this season. Herbert had thrown two or more passing touchdowns in seven straight games before the two-week slump, so don’t be surprised if he throws two in the first half tomorrow.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-172)
I’ve hammered this prop every week and will continue to do so till Big Ben lets us down. He has thrown two or more passing touchdowns in all but two games this season, averaging 2.3 per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have struggled to slow down quarterbacks, giving up two or more passing touchdowns in over half their games this season. Last week the Bills gave up three passing touchdowns to Nick Mullens and his limited weapons. Just imagine how many Big Ben can throw with all his elite receivers.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns
Mark Andrews to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+140)
After missing the last two games because of Covid-19, Andrews will make his return Monday night. That’s just in time as he takes on one of the worst teams in the league defending tight ends. The Browns have given up at least one receiving touchdown to tight ends in over half their games this season, including four straight. Meanwhile, Andrews has six touchdowns this season, including one when he last took the field in Week 11. Andrews had his best game of the year in the Week 1 matchup against the Browns, catching two touchdowns, so don’t be surprised if he has another two touchdown game Monday.
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