Best Prop Bet from Every NFL Week 15 Gameby Mike Fanelli December 19, 2020 1 comment
The 2020 NFL season is coming to an end, with only three weeks left in the regular season. Only a handful of teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and several playoff spots should come down to the final week. With plenty of close and exciting football to end the season, gamblers are in a prime position to make some money.
To recap last week, I finished 7-8 on my 15 prop bets. The lock of the week missed as, despite Russell Wilson throwing four touchdowns against the New York Jets, he only had 206 passing yards. This caused D.K. Metcalf from hitting the over on his receiving yards prop, as he came up short by 17 yards. After losing the bonus point with the lock of the week, I finished Week 14 with a 7-8 record, bringing my total on the season to 84-91. Sometimes don’t go your way, but it’s a new week and a new chance to make some money. That said, let’s dive into the best prop bets for Week 15.
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Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos
Drew Lock Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-106)
In the first of two games today, Lock and the Broncos will take on Josh Allen and the Bills. The 2020 season hasn’t been ideal for Lock, throwing 13 interceptions compared to 13 touchdowns. However, Lock had the best game of his career last week against the Panthers, throwing for a career-high four touchdowns. Furthermore, over his past two games, Lock has six passing touchdowns compared to two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Bills have given up an average of 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season, giving up two or more in 62 percent of their games, including two straight. This game should be a shootout, so expect Lock to have at least two passing touchdowns.
Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-200)
Death, taxes, and Adams scoring a touchdown every week. He has scored at least one touchdown in 82 percent of his games this season, including eight straight. Adams already has a career-high 14 touchdowns this season, averaging 1.3 per game. Meanwhile, the Panthers have given up three or more receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in three of their last five games, including two straight. Over their past two games, they have faced Kirk Cousins and Lock. The duo has a combined 40 passing touchdowns this season compared to Aaron Rodgers‘ 39. Furthermore, Adams has more games this season with two or more touchdowns (four) than games with none (two). Adams is more likely to score three times tonight than not at all.
Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 T.Y. Hilton Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
If you play fantasy football, one of the golden rules is to always start Hilton against the Texans. Hilton had been in a funk this season, averaging 36 receiving yards per game to go with zero touchdowns over his first nine games. However, over the last three weeks, Hilton is averaging 92.3 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Texans can’t stop a nose bleed, let alone pro bowl wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 166 receiving yards per game to the position. Hilton had a season-high eight receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown against the Texans two weeks ago. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he repeats that performance tomorrow. This prop bet is my lock of the week.
Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry Over 112.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Henry has been the best running back this season, averaging a league-high 118 rushing yards per game. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in 62 percent of his games this season, including four of his last five. Furthermore, Henry has two games this season with over 210 rushing yards, including a season-high 215 last week against the Jaguars. Meanwhile, the Lions are giving up an average of 112.2 rushing yards per game to running backs. They gave up 107 rushing yards to the Packers’ running backs last week and have given up 245 or more rushing yards twice this season. The league’s leading rushing against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL makes the math is simple, take the over and don’t think twice about it.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Allen Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions (-155)
In a contract year, Robinson is averaging 6.6 receptions on 9.9 targets per game this season. He has recorded six or more receptions in just under 70 percent of his games this season, including six straight. Meanwhile, the Vikings have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season, giving up an average of 13.4 receptions for 182.1 receiving yards per game to the position. In their Week 10 matchup against the Vikings, Robinson was targeted nine times, bringing in six of them. The winner of this game has the inside track to making the playoffs, so expect the Bears to attack a struggling Vikings secondary with Robinson.
Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Football Team
Dwayne Haskins Under 236.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Haskins will start tomorrow as Alex Smith will miss the game with a leg injury he suffered last week. Haskins hasn’t started since Week 4 against the Ravens. In the four games Haskins has started this season, he is averaging 235 passing yards per game. However, Haskins threw for under 225 yards in three of those games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ defense has played their best football this season over the last three weeks. During that span, quarterbacks are averaging 153 passing yards per game, throwing for under 135 yards twice. Haskins is only playing because Washington doesn’t have a better option, so don’t expect him to get close to hitting the over on this prop bet.
New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins
Cam Newton Under 162.5 Passing Yards (-112)
I have bet the under on this all season long and will continue to even as the number drops. Newton is averaging 181 passing yards per game this season but has thrown for over 162.5 passing yards in only four games. Over the last three weeks, Newton is averaging 91 passing yards per game, throwing for under 120 yards in all three games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have done a great job slowing down quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes over the last five weeks, holding quarterbacks to an average of 212 passing yards per game. Newton threw for only 155 yards in their Week 1 game with Julian Edelman healthy, and there is no chance Newton throws for 155 yards tomorrow with Edelman on injured reserve.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens
James Robinson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I’ll be honest, I have no idea why this number isn’t closer to 77.5 rushing yards, but I’ll gladly take the over on this prop bet. Robinson is average 79.6 rushing yards per game this season. He has rushed for at least 62 yards in 77 percent of his games this season, including seven straight. Meanwhile, the Ravens have given up an average of 92 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, giving up 80 or more in 62 percent of their games. Furthermore, the Ravens have given up 99 or more rushing yards to running backs in four of their last five games. That suggests Robinson will have no trouble getting more than 62.5 rushing yards tomorrow.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons
Tom Brady Under 309.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Brady’s first season in Tampa Bay hasn’t gone as he had hoped. At times he has looked awful and struggled to push the ball downfield. Brady has thrown for over 300 yards in only 31 percent of his games this season. While on paper, the matchup against the Falcons looks great, they have done a good job slowing down quarterbacks recently. Over their first seven games this season, quarterbacks averaged 295 passing yards per game against the Falcons, compared to 240 over their last six games. Expect Brady to have a good game against the Falcons, but he won’t top 300 passing yards.
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Under 56.5 Rushing Yards (-124)
The 2020 season is one Zeke and the Cowboys would like to forget. Zeke has rushed for under 55 yards in five of the eight games since the Dak Prescott injury, averaging 58.5 rushing yards per game during that span. Furthermore, Zeke is dealing with a hip injury that has limited him the past few weeks. Over his last three games, Zeke has rushed for under 50 yards twice. Meanwhile, the 49ers are holding running backs to an average of 75.2 rushing yards per game this season. They have held running backs to under 75 rushing yards in four of their last seven games. With the injury, combined with the tough matchup and Tony Pollard‘s growing role, don’t be surprised if Zeke struggles to rush for 45 yards tomorrow.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals
Jalen Hurts Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-205)
In his first career start, Hurts completed only 56.7 percent of his passes for 167 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. He had more rushing attempts (18) than completions (17) in that game. This week he faces a Cardinals defense that has given up only one passing touchdown over their last three games and an average of 1.5 per game this season. If the Eagles want to win this game, they need to repeat what they did last week and run the ball down the Cardinals’ throat. Don’t be surprised if Hurts finished the game without a passing touchdown.
New York Jets vs Los Angeles Rams
Sam Darnold Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+190)
Usually, the lowest you ever see a prop go is over/under 1.5 passing touchdowns. However, this week DraftKings has Darnold at over/under 0.5 as he faces the Rams. Darnold has only five passing touchdowns this season and has thrown zero in over half his games, including five of his last six games. Meanwhile, the Rams are giving up an average of 1.1 passing touchdowns per game, holding quarterback to zero passing touchdowns in over half of their games this season. The Rams have arguably the best pass defense in football, and the Jets haven’t won a game all season long. There is a real chance the Rams shutout the Jets tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-142)
After missing the last four games with multiple rib fractures, Brees will start tomorrow against the Chiefs. Before going on injured reserve, Brees was averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game in the contests he finished this season. Furthermore, Brees had thrown two or more passing touchdowns in six of the eight games before the injury. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are giving up an average of 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season. However, over their last five games, the Chiefs have given up an average of 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, giving up at least two in every contest. This game should include plenty of points, so expect both quarterbacks to throw at least two touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns vs New York Giants
Nick Chubb Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Browns are winning games this season, running the ball with their great running back duo of Chubb and Kareem Hunt. However, Chubb is clearly the lead back in this backfield as in the games he has finished this season, he is averaging 105 rushing yards per game. Furthermore, Chubb has rushed for at least 80 yards in seven straight games that he’s finished. Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled to stop the run at times this season. They are giving up an average of 83.2 rushing yards per game to running backs. However, they have given up 75 or more rushing yards to running backs in over half their games this season. Chubb should have no trouble rushing for at least 80 yards, if not 100, Sunday night.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
While Bengal fans should be excited about the future with Joe Burrow at quarterback, Higgins has been just as impressive this season. Since Week 4, Higgins is averaging 70.3 receiving yards per game, recording at least 44 receiving yards in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled against the pass this season, giving up an average of 164.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. In the Week 10 matchup against the Steelers, Higgins had 115 receiving yards on seven receptions. He should have no trouble going over 40.5 receiving yards on Monday.
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