Week 12 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | November 23rd, 2019

Starting next week we will have 16 games a week to bet on for the rest of the regular season. With only 13 Sunday and Monday games to bet on, there aren’t a lot of surprising lines. Of the 13 games, 11 have a spread under a touchdown which is a little surprising given the past few weeks. With several close matchups this week, we should expect a lot of close and entertaining games tomorrow.

To recap last week, both guys had a solid week against the spread, going 7-6 (53.8% hit rate). The difference was Mike went 3-0 on his favorite bets as the Cardinals barely covered the +10.5 spread despite a wild touchdown by the 49ers to end the game 36-26 while Gio went 0-3 on his favorite bets as the Raiders defeated the Bengals but Josh Jacobs didn’t score, keeping him from cashing his ticket. In total Mike went 10-6 (62.5% hit rate) while Gio went 7-9 (43.8% hit rate) on their 16 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week 12.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Broncos +2.5 at Bills in the first half (-122)

You might be thinking “how can he like the Broncos +2.5 in the first half but not +4 for the game?” The answer is simple, recently the Broncos have gotten off to hot starts while the Bills are slow out of the gate. The Broncos have led at halftime in six of their last seven games, averaging 12.7 points per game in the first half during that span. Meanwhile, the Bills average 10.8 points per game in the first half this season. I expect this to be a low scoring first half with the Bills adjusting at halftime to come out in the second half and pull off the win. You can take the Broncos first half money line at +160 but I rather take the +2.5 just to be safe.

Gio – Bills -4 vs. Broncos

The Bills were finally starting to gain respect from the football community until they lost to the Browns. Now they open up as only four point favorites at home against a team that has an inexperienced quarterback who hasn’t proven that he is anything special. The Broncos haven’t scored a fourth quarter touchdown in weeks, so if the Bills can lead for the majority of the game, they should be able to seal the deal in Buffalo by at least a touchdown.

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Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Broncos at Bills under 18.5 in the first half (-113)

I’m going to double down on the game here. The Broncos average 10.2 points per game in the first half while the Bills average 10.8 points per game in the first half this season. Based on those averages, the first half total should be 21 points. However, both of these teams have strong defenses and limited offenses pushing this number down a little. Meanwhile, the Broncos give up an average of 7.8 points per game in the first half while the Bills give up an average of eight per game in the first half this season. At -113, it’s a solid return and should cash unless the Bills’ offense plays like they did last week against the Dolphins.

Gio – Giants at Bears under 40

The Giants have a decent offense but the Bears defense is still their strong suit. Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense struggles but the Bears’ offense is miserable. This game has low-scoring written all over it. I’m thinking 17-13 narrow victory for the Bears, hitting the under with ease.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Julio Jones over 95.5 receiving yards (-112)

Let’s not kid ourselves, the Buccaneers’ pass defense is awful and has struggled to stop Jones in recent memory. Over his last 10 games against the Buccaneers, Julio has topped 96 yards in seven of those games while averaging 130.1 yards per game during that span. Meanwhile, over Julio’s last five games he has topped 90 yards four times while averaging 104.6 yards per game during that span. The Buccaneers’ give up an average of 202.2 yards per game to wide receivers. At only 95.5 receiving yards, I wouldn’t be the least bit if you can cash this ticket by the end of the third quarter.

Gio – Dawson Knox over 21.5 receiving yards (-112)

It really only takes one big play for Knox to achieve this feat. His success relies on Josh Allen‘s ability to get him the ball. I think Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott are starting to realize how valuable of an asset Knox is in this offense, so I expect him to have at least 30 yards on Sunday against the Broncos. He averages 27.9 yards per game, but a lot of those games occurred before they realized Knox’s usefulness, so he should be in line for a nice workload.

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