Nick Steig | November 12th, 2019
Before I get to my NBA DFS picks for tonight, I would like to thank The Scorecrow for giving me a place to bring you my thoughts. This is the first article I am writing for the site and I could not be more excited to be part of the DFS family here. Just like some of you, I work a full-time job. Playing and researching daily fantasy sports gets my mind off the work grind. It’s also five degrees outside as I write this so there’s that too. It’s cold up here in the Northwoods and my goal is to bring us some fire for this NBA DFS slate. Let’s light this baby up.
NBA DFS Picks – Core Players
My favorite and successful approach to NBA DFS is to roll my lineups around a core. A core is a group of players that I use in each lineup. It works for cash games and tournaments. The reason it works for both is that I only run one cash lineup. The core is made up of three to four players I feel very confident in hitting 5.5x to 6x value. For tournaments, it is a risky strategy because if one of the players misses value or has a floor night, it’s curtains. However, if all three or four players in the core hit or exceed value, I am swimming in cash.
This strategy is by far the most successful approach I have had in NBA DFS. Whether I roll out one lineup or twenty, my core is something I put a lot of time to research. When you think about contest payouts, you need to finish in the top three percent of tournaments in order to make a substantial amount of money. By nailing a core and mixing players around it you have a much better chance of finishing towards the top of tournaments.
Tobias Harris ($6800 DraftKings – $7300 FanDuel)
Ben Simmons is questionable to suit up tonight while Al Horford is already ruled out. Tobias has enjoyed a 20.9 percent usage rating so far this season. Take Horford out of that equation and he gets a bump that makes me certain that he will have a low dud probability. He has averaged 14 field goal attempts along with snagging 8.6 rebounds per game. This floor is very intriguing for him to make my NBA DFS Picks tonight.
Cory Joseph ($3700 DraftKings – $3700 FanDuel)
De’Aaron Fox was injured yesterday and is expected to miss some time. He carried a 28.5 percent usage rate and put up 14.2 shots per game. I expect Cory Joseph to start alongside Buddy Hield (mega chalk). While Joseph has been thriving more in the second unit, it’s hard to argue with his price and expected usage in a starting role. He should also be very blowout proof since the Kings are very thin in the backcourt. He does have multi-position eligibility on DraftKings so he makes for a very pivotal player for my NBA DFS picks. Joseph should see more than 30 minutes in this contest.
Aron Baynes ($6000 DraftKings – $6500 FanDuel)
Aron Baynes is forgotten on a regular basis by NBA DFS players around the globe. He’s far more physical than Frank Kaminsky and the Suns are going to need him to bang against Anthony Davis. Baynes has hit or exceeded value in each of his past five games. He can also put up the three-ball with consistency as he is shooting 47.4% from deep this season. I am very confident that he can solidify his place in my NBA DFS picks tonight.
NBA DFS Picks – Stud Play
Nailing the slate stud is an integral part of this strategy. If you hit your core and pick the upper-tier high ceiling player, you are well on your way to a nice payday. So who is this going to be tonight? There are ten players on this slate who are priced over $8,000 on DraftKings who have the ability to put up over 60 points. The guy I am looking towards is…
Damian Lillard ($9500 DraftKings – $10500 FanDuel)
I love the total for this game as well as the matchup and spread. I love having a late-night hammer in my lineups. Who better to provide the final blow to my competition than Dame? Lillard should have zero resistance in his isolation play. Hield is going to be focused on offense and Cory Joseph is about 1/5 the player as Lillard. He grew up an hour down the road from Sacramento and should put up a nice game for his hometown crowd. Portland is only favored by 2.5 points and they have an implied team total of 121 points. If they are going to get there, we might as well lean on their leader.
Closing Thoughts
You are now equipped with four players who shouldn’t fail you tonight. The matchups are conducive to fantasy point production. I leave you with a few other NBA DFS picks that I think will do very well tonight based on their implied opportunity. Jimmy Butler, Malcolm Brogdon, Hassan Whiteside, Duncan Robinson, Donovan Mitchell, and Julius Randle.
In NBA DFS late news can pop up out of nowhere. I will update this article with notes at the bottom if any of this news affects the slate. Stay tuned!
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