Kevin Walsh| October 15th, 2019
We have got a nice little seven-game slate tonight with some high-powered offenses and a couple of away favorites. Fitting in the top lines will be a little difficult, but it could be the difference-maker tonight. Let’s get to it.
GAME THEORY
I will continue to leave this section as is for the first couple of weeks so everyone knows what my feelings are for lineup construction, at least for the time being.
I want to explain how I construct my lineups, otherwise, the way this article flows will make little to no sense. If you know from other sports, we are often looking for correlation in our plays, and hockey is no different in that regard. In most cases, we want to stack two lines from different teams (with some variation depending) to get the most correlation. We may add a defenseman that plays on the power-play with two or more of those line-mates for additional correlation.
That being said, my lineups will be built 3+3 or 4+3, meaning three players from one line and three from another line, and if there is a four-man stack, there will be a correlated defenseman. I do not tend to stray from this strategy, at least until the new hype arrives and something stranger wins a big tournament.
There are also such things as the 5+2 stack, where you are typically stacking an entire power-play unit and add two correlated players as a mini-stack. You would use these when a penalty-prone team faces a power-play juggernaut, or if you just think that game is going to be a goal-scoring bonanza.
In future articles, I will highlight my lineup construction further to give specific examples.
All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. It’s also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.
I will also leave this reminder here that you should always be checking lines close to lock for any late news and/or line changes. NHL is not nearly as bad as the NBA with late scratches or bad reporting, but it’s always better to be safe than sorry.
VEGAS
This section going forward will contain the Vegas opening line information for each game, as well as the probable goaltender for that game. Please note that you should always be checking late news for starting goaltenders. ALWAYS. All games are listed by money-line favorites, the goal total, and whether the total is trending to the over or to the under (denoted by an “o” or “u”, respectively).
Minnesota @ Toronto (NO LINE)
Devan Dubnyk vs Frederik Andersen
Tampa Bay -140 @ Montreal, 6.5u
Andrei Vasilevskiy vs Carey Price
Arizona @ Winnepeg -140, 6.5u
Darcy Kuemper vs Connor Hellebuyck
Philadelphia @ Calgary -175, 6.5u
Brian Elliott vs David Rittich
Nashville @ Vegas -150, 6.5u
Pekka Rinne vs Marc-Andre Fleury
Detroit @ Vancouver -160, 6u
Jimmy Howard vs Thatcher Demko
Carolina -155 @ Los Angeles, 6.5u
TOURNAMENT LINES
TB1 – Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos ($23,000 DK)
Defensemen Add-On – Victor Hedman ($6,000 DK)
Their price is absurd, but so is their talent. Add that they put up a dud in the last game and that should drive some ownership down. The problem will be finding value to fit in with them, but that can be done.
CGY1 – Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, and Elias Lindholm ($19,000 DK)
Defensemen Add-On – Mark Giordano ($6,500 DK)
Only slightly less expensive, the high-powered Calgary top line gets a matchup at home against Brian Elliott. The Flyers aren’t exactly defensively sound outside of Sean Couturier, and this line hasn’t had that ceiling game yet that they tend to have 5 or 6 times a season. Did I mention Brian Elliott?
ARI1 – Derek Stepan, Phil Kessel, and Barrett Hayton ($12,100 DK)
They are the away team, but Winnipeg’s top line is giving up scoring chances like crazy, especially since Patrik Laine moved up there. We need value to jam in our top two lines and these guys do all see top power-play minutes, so this will be my go-to for value.
Also Like (in order): CGY2, VGK1, TOR1/2 (Dubnyk has not looked great), MIN1 (Value), MON1, PHI1
GOALTENDERS
If you are familiar with MLB DFS, goaltenders are much like starting pitchers. Taking big favorites at home is often a good play. It is also reasonable to look for goaltenders who play for teams that tend to give up lots of shots, as the volume for saves provides a solid floor, especially since the scoring has changed and now gives a bonus for 35+ saves.
David Rittich ($8,100 DK) – Calgary is the biggest home favorite on the board, which is what we are looking for pretty often in a goalie. Add that Flyers shoot enough that the 35+ save bonus is in play here as well as the win. Probably going to be my most exposed goaltender.
Petr Mrazek ($7,900 DK) – Carolina is a big away favorite, the Kings offense is not scary, and they are generally solid defensively.
Don’t Forget About – Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price (contrarian), Marc-Andre Fleury
VALUE
This section will just highlight some value plays if you need a one-off player or some fill-in guys. Typically these will consist of guys elevated to bigger minutes due to injury, or promising talent that hasn’t seen the professional level yet.
Taro Hirose ($2,900 DK) – He plays on the second line and is currently listed as being on the top power-play line. Not much more you can ask for at this price.
Alex Iafallo ($3,800 DK) – The Kings’ offense isn’t very strong, but Iafallo does see top minutes both at even-strength and on the power-play. I’d probably rather play Hirose here, but Iafallo is reasonable.
Filip Hronek ($3,900 DK) – Hronek has been getting a lot of work on the back end for the Red Wings, and he has shot upside at this price, as well as some power-play time.
Rasmus Andersson ($3,300 DK) – Flames defensemen get a lot of work on the outside, and Andersson is still on that top pairing with Giordano. Add that he sees time on the second power-play, and he is a value play every slate.
BREAKAWAY
Oddly enough, we have all reasonably-sized slates this week. I tend to do better on these seven-gamers rather than the three-gamers or the twelve-gamers, and I’m due for a heater the way I’ve been running, so get on the train while it’s leaving the station.
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @Walsh_Sports. I will answer any questions you have!
Let’s make that money tonight and every night!
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