You have to risk it to get the biscuit. You’ve heard the saying before, but when it pertains to daily fantasy lineups it can be especially pertinent. With that said, I like the Miami Marlins again tonight against Dylan Covey as a lower-owned stack. Not quite sure we can use them in cash games, but let’s take a look at some players that we can.
Locks
Chris Sale ($11,000 on DK and $10,200 on FD)
After a rough few outings in a row, Sale got back to dominance against Toronto his last time out, throwing six innings, giving up only two hits, and striking out twelve. The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have a terrible lineup, but they strikeout 26.1% against lefties which is the fourth-highest rate in the American League. We know Sale has massive upside and the strikeout potential in this spot is enough to make him a safe play in cash games.
Chris Archer ($7,500 on DK and $8,300 on FD)
Archer hasn’t been all that bad recently. He’s fresh off a quality start versus these St. Cardinals on the road where he struck out eight batters in six innings of work. There isn’t a ton of good value on the pitching side tonight as most are priced all the way up. The St. Louis Cardinals have the third-worst wOBA (.306) and fifth-worst wRC+ (88) in the National League vs right-handed pitching. Archer also has upside, as he Ks 26.7% of batters.
Other Targets: Caleb Smith, Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, and Yu Darvish.
Core Hitters
1B Matt Adams ($4,100 on DK and $2,600 on FD)
With Ryan Zimmerman on the injured list, no one is standing in front of Matt Adams for playing time at first base, especially against right-handed pitchers. Adams mashes righties with a 42.4% hard contact rate and only a 16.2% soft contact rate against them. 12 of his 15 long balls this season have been versus righties. And for his career, he’s a .274 hitter compared to .212 versus lefties.
3B/SS Manny Machado ($4,600 on DK and $4,000 on FD)
We already know the kind of elite-level talent Manny Machado is, but he is putting up elite-level numbers versus left-handed pitchers this season. Take a look below, these numbers are based from hitters with at least 40 plate appearances versus lefties this season.
- .532 wOBA (1st)
- 237 wRC+ (2nd)
- 52.8% Hard Contact (21st)
- .386 AVG. (7th)
- 1.334 OPS (1st)
- 55.6% HR/FB (1st)
- 10 HRs (tied for 4th)
Jason Vargas has given up 10 of his 13 homers to right-handed hitters and has a 5.27 xFIP against. Machado is a lock for me at his price.
Other Targets: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Christian Yelich, Max Muncy, Francisco Lindor, and Jason Kipnis.
BvP
Ian Kinsler vs Jason Vargas
25-67 2 HR 8 RBI 12 XBH .373 AVG. 1.050 OPS
Edwin Encarnacion vs Kyle Gibson
10-33 4 HR 11 RBI 6 XBH .303 avg. 1.127 OPS.
Stacks
Washington Nationals vs Peter Lambert
One of the main reasons I like Adams today, Lambert has had a really tough time with left-handed batters. Lefties are hitting .309 with a .404 wOBA and only 3.6% soft contact versus Lambert. A 6.06 ERA and 5.97 FIP suggests that he’s struggling with most hitters at the moment. This is a prime spot for the Nats to take advantage.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Tanner Roark
Roark has been okay versus righties this season, holding them to a .225 average. But against lefties, he has fared much, much worse. Left-handed hitters are slashing .317/.407/.554 with a 2.06 HR/9 rate. Fire up Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, and Yasmani Grandal.
Houston Astros vs Mike Fiers
I will not be deterred or discouraged on my mission to catch the Mike Fiers blow up game. Since his no-hitter on May 7th, Fiers has been lights out. He’s racked up 11 straight quality starts since May 19th and hasn’t given up a homer in six consecutive starts. Fiers’ 4.55 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, and 5.30 SIERA suggest regression is coming. Out of pitchers with at least 70 IP, Fiers has the seventh-lowest BABIP in the league (.243). A lot of that is a testament to his O-Contact% being the highest of his career at 75.5%. If batters are more patient and don’t make as much contact on his pitches out of the zone, they will have much more success against Fiers. Houston has the fourth-highest walk rate in the American League (9.3%) and just put up 11 runs last night. This is a good spot for Mike Fiers’ regression party.
Miami Marlins vs Dylan Covey
Call this a gut call, especially after being shutout by Ivan Nova last night. But Dylan Covey has been brutal for the White Sox with a 5.83 ERA and 6.12 xFIP.
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