Joey Ricotta | July 1st, 2019
To me, it is clearly time to spend up for the big hitters tonight. With only five games on the menu, the pitching options are few and far between. I’ve narrowed down a couple that I will be targeting and have included some of the hitters I like for tonight. It’s a new month and the same old grind. Let’s get into some Pitching and Core Hitters to target for tonight.
Pitching
Adbert Alzolay ($6,400 on DK and $7,500 on FD)
Through his first two major league outings, Alzolay has been pretty good. In 8.2 combined innings pitched, he’s allowed only two hits, two runs, and struck out nine. He might not be fully stretched out, but he has some of the best pure stuff of any pitcher on the slate. The Pirates have the lowest strikeout rate in the National League vs right-handed pitchers and the third lowest rate in all of baseball (19.3%). That might somewhat limit Alzolay’s upside in this one, but at the same time, the Pirates haven’t seen him before. Against right-handed pitchers, the Pirates have the sixth lowest hard contact rate in MLB with 35.4% and fourth lowest HR/FB rate (11.7%).
Ryan Yarbrough ($6,500 on DK and $6,600 on FD)
I know what you’re thinking. Why would you want to play someone who has a 4.62 ERA and isn’t even starting the game? At this price point, with so much uncertainty, why not? Yarbrough has put up 30.9 Draftkings points earlier this season in Boston and has been over 10 points in each of his last three outings. We don’t need him to go insane, but I think the win is a real possibility against Baltimore and he could navigate his way through four or five innings of work. The Orioles have the third lowest hard contact rate vs lefties at 31.9% and the highest soft contact rate at 21.5%.
Other Targets: Logan Allen
Core Hitters
2B/3B Hanser Alberto ($3,500 on DK and $2,700 on FD)
Alberto has been the best kept DFS secret so far this season. His price on Draftkings has remained in the low to mid $3,000 range, meanwhile, he has been killing left-handed pitching all season. In 108 at-bats against lefties, Alberto is hitting .417 with a .411 wOBA and 161 wRC+. The average is the best among hitters with at least 100 plate appearances vs lefties. The wOBA and wRC+ ranks fifth best among all hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, behind only Nolan Arenado, Eduardo Escobar, and Cody Bellinger in both categories. Pretty good company to be involved with. Although I’m using the pitcher he will face tonight, that doesn’t bother me at this price.
3B/SS Manny Machado ($5,100 on DK and $4,200 on FD)
Machado is smoking hot right now and has hit Jeff Samardzija well in the past. He’s 5-11 (.455) with 2 HR 3 RBI and 3 XBH lifetime vs the Shark. Machado has hit three homers in his last two games and is 28 for his last 68, hitting .412 with 10 HR and 23 RBI during that stretch.
Christian Yelich ($5,900 on DK and $4,800 on FD)
This is a day that we can and should try to put Yelich into our lineups. With the uneasy feeling at pitcher, why not take one of the best hitters in the game today. The reigning NL MVP and Major League leader in home runs, Christian Yelich has been named to his second straight Midsummer Classic. He’s currently sitting at .328 with 29 HR and 63 RBI. He gets a match-up in a good hitter’s ballpark with Tyler Mahle who struggles against left-handed hitters. 11 of the 15 homers Mahle has allowed this year have been to lefties and they are slashing .282/.333/.563 against him.
Other Targets: Mike Zunino, Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Eric Hosmer, Willy Adames, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, and Keon Broxton.
Stacks
Feel free to be a little goofy and go against your gut. On a small five-game slate, you’ll need to be different and it could be that replacement level shortstop or backup catcher that makes the difference. My favorite team to stack is going to be the Milwaukee Brewers vs Tyler Mahle. I’ll mainly be targeting the lefties in the Brewers order. Mahle has a brutal 2.86 HR/9 rate and 5.23 xFIP vs lefties. And as mentioned earlier, in 13.1 innings fewer, lefties have hit 11 of the 15 homers Mahle has allowed this season.
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