Matt Bishop | June 10, 2019
STREAMER OF THE WEEK (29% CBS, 4% ESPN, 7% Yahoo)
Sandy Alcantara, SP MIA:
(3 – 5) 3.80 ERA 1.35 WHIP 5.83 K/9 4.05 BB/9 0.76 HR/9
47.1% GB 31.9% FB 30.6% Hard 11.3% swstr
Sandy Alcantara may be the forgotten man in a Marlins rotation that has been quietly effective this season. Alcantara was the prize piece in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis and was once a heralded prospect, sitting firmly in MLB’s Top 100 prospects in 2018. But he hasn’t really lived up to expectations. Alcantara’s seasonal stats are nothing special, but when you hone in on his recent performances, you can begin to see him coming alive:
LAST 4 STARTS:
(2 – 1) 1.67 ERA 0.89 WHIP 6.0 K/9 3.0 BB/9 0.0 HR/9
50.7% GB 26.1% FB 30.4% Hard 12.1% swstr
In this four-game span, his 12.1% overall swinging strike rate ranks 36th in baseball, while his 53.1% first pitch strike is the 8th worst in the league. This means he is getting behind in counts and still putting up favorable numbers.
If his first pitch strike rate reverted back to his 2018 total of 61.6%, Alcantara could be in for some positive regression as he boasts a career .493 OPS against when he is ahead in the count, versus a career .836 OPS against, when he is behind in the count.
But let’s be honest. This four game sample set looks almost identical to his seasonal numbers and appears to be nothing impressive. When I dug deeper into his pix mitch, I got a bit more excited.
Alcantara is a four-pitch pitcher: Fastball/Sinker (55.9%) Slider (21.3%) Curveball (9.6%) Changeup (13.1%). On the season, four of his five pitches are currently carrying a positive pVAL, while 3 of them have a swinging strike rate in the double digits. That should not be ignored:
Now let’s take a look at his recent four game sample that I referenced above. Opposing batting averages against these pitches are plummeting, while the swinging strike rates are making significant advances.
LAST 4 STARTS:
Alcantara will pitch 2 games at home this week, where he is currently pitching to a 3.43 ERA 1.14 WHIP, versus a 4.26 ERA 1.61 WHIP on the road. Let’s be real here for a second. If you are looking for high strikeout upside, Alcantara is not your guy. But with his arsenal of plus pitches and some strong momentum going into Week 11, Sandy Alcantara should offer you a high floor and above average ratios for the upcoming scoring period.
MUST START
Chris Sale, SP BOS (TEX, @BAL)
Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP LAD (@LAA, CHC)
Charlie Morton, SP TB (OAK, LAA)
Masahiro Tanaka, SP NYY (NYM, @CHW)
Trevor Bauer, SP CLE (CIN, @DET)
SAFE START
Mike Minor, SP TEX (@BOS, @CIN)
German Marquez, SP COL (CHC, SD)
*Chris Paddack, SP SD (@SF, @COL)
Start pushed to Tuesday. Two-start status could be in jeopardy.
Jose Quintana, SP CHC (@COL, @LAD)
Griffin Canning, SP LAA (LAD, @TB)
Mike Foltynewicz, SP ATL (PIT, PHI)
Chris Archer, SP PIT (@ATL, @MIA)
Martin Perez, SP MIN (SEA, KC)
Joe Musgrove, SP PIT (@ATL, @MIA)
Spencer Turnbull, SP DET (@KC, CLE)
RISKY START
Yu Darvish, SP CHC (@COL, @LAD)
Dakota Hudson, SP STL (@MIA, @NYM)
John Means, SP BAL (TOR, BOS)
Jerad Eickhoff, SP PHI (ARI, @ATL)
Anibal Sanchez, SP WAS (@CHW, ARI)
Kevin Gausman, SP ATL (PIT, PHI)
Jon Duplantier, SP ARI (@PHI, @WAS)
Trent Thornton, SP TOR (@BAL, @HOU)
Jakob Junis, SP KC (DET, @MIN)
DON’T START
Mike Leake, SP SEA (@MIN, @OAK)
Ariel Jurado, SP TEX (@BOS, @CIN)
Peter Lambert, SP COL (CHC, SD)
Jason Vargas, SP NYM (@NYY, STL)
Taylor Clarke, SP ARI (@PHI, @WAS)
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