Joey Ricotta | November 16th, 2019
Alright, it’s time once again to cook up some winning lineups. Hopefully, you were able to construct a nice winning lineup based on some of the plays mentioned in last week’s article. However, you aren’t here to reminisce about last week.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays, while also, providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That goes without saying, but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis.
The only thing people want to know is how many points a guy scored, and not necessarily the route in which they got there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are my favorite Cash Game Plays for Week 11.
Disclaimer: As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite plays. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with a lock emoji are going to be fixtures in my main lineup.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD)
The fear of using Prescott is that the Dallas Cowboys could get out to a decent lead in this game. The Lions will be starting Jeff Driskel again. If he can keep the game close, Prescott should be in for a big game. Regardless, Prescott has a high floor. The Lions are giving up the seventh-most DK points per game to opposing quarterbacks (22.6). And Prescott is averaging 24.3 DK PPG. The Lions also have a bad secondary and linebacker core, along with a banged-up defensive line, which won’t help a defense tied for 26th in the league with only 19 sacks on the season. Dak should have time to throw and at minimum reach value.
Kyle Allen ($5,300 DK, $7,200 FD)
Usually, a quarterback isn’t where I’m putting a lock emoji. But the only other real lock for me this week is Lamar Jackson, and his price has blasted through the roof. On FanDuel, Allen is a bit easier to get away from. But on DraftKings, I’m locking him in. Allen will face the Atlanta Falcons who held Drew Brees in check last week from a fantasy perspective (11.5 DK points). But Brees still threw for 287 yards, completing 32 of 45 pass attempts for a 71.11% completion percentage. Not getting into the endzone hurt his overall score. If he would’ve gotten one more completion of 13 yards for a TD, he would’ve gone over the 300 yards bonus on DK and had a decent day. Allen showed a lot of poise last week in Green Bay. He drove the Panthers downfield late and put them in a position to win. It was his first game throwing for 300 yards and that has to be good for his psyche heading into this game.
Other Options: Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees
Value: Derek Carr
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($10,500 DK and FD)
Decision time. Which running back are we spending up for this week Brain? Same running back we spend up for every week Pinky, Christian McCaffrey. Now, hopefully, you get the Pinky and the Brain reference. If not, it really doesn’t matter because by now, you understand that McCaffrey is a near-lock every week. His price is identical on DraftKings and FanDuel, as it was last week. Minus the two games against Tampa Bay, McCaffrey has no fewer than 29.1 DK points in any other game. The matchup isn’t the greatest against Atlanta, although they are giving up 111 rushing yards per game (20th in the NFL). Unlike last week, I’m not sure we can fit both Michael Thomas and McCaffrey into the same cash game lineup without severely sacrificing the rest of the roster. Thomas has been priced up to a place we rarely see Wide Receivers. I’ll take the discount and use the workhorse running back instead.
Josh Jacobs ($6,900 DK, $8,000 FD)
As of writing this, the Oakland Raiders are heavy home favorites (-11.5) to beat the Cincinnati Bengals. The rookie running back has at least 120 yards rushing in two of his last four games. It’s been kind of an every other week type of thing (71, 120, 66, 124). Last week, he ran for 71 yards and a TD. He also saw the most targets out of any game so far this season with five. The Bengals are the worst in the NFL at stopping the run (173 yards per game). Advanced metrics still have them as the worst, ranking fourth-worst in DVOA (3.2%). The Bengals are also allowing the third-most DK points per game to running backs (29.8). This is the highest price we’ve seen Jacobs, but he should be worth it.
Brian Hill ($4,800 DK, $5,900 FD)
Much like Ronald Jones last week, Hill is a riskier low dollar running back play. But we need to get somewhat risky in order to fit in what we need to. Devonta Freeman has already been ruled out with a sprained foot injury and Hill should see the majority of the action in the Falcons’ backfield. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams proved the Carolina Panthers are pathetic at stopping the run. Jones ran for 93 yards and three TDs on only 13 carries, averaging 7.15 YPC. Williams ran for another 63 yards on 13 carries as well. Between the two of them, they combined for 156 yards and averaged six yards per carry. According to FootballOutsiders, the Panthers are the worst team in DVOA against the run (14.2%). I could easily talk myself out of this, but I’m not going to. I’m going to use Hill and hope the Panthers players I use with him, will be a positive correlation.
Other Options: Dalvin Cook, Tevin Coleman
Value: Kalen Ballage (Don’t love it)
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore ($5,900 DK, $6,000 FD)/Curtis Samuel ($5,300 DK, $6,300 FD)
To be clear, D.J. Moore is the best option out of these two. However, if you need the salary on DraftKings, Samuel has been seeing targets every week (no fewer than six targets in his past eight games). Desmond Trufant returns this week, but he’s not exactly a lockdown cornerback that strikes fear into opposing wide receivers. We also don’t know how limited he will be. Whether it’s Isaiah Oliver or Blidi Wreh-Wilson covering the other wideout, the Panthers’ receiver has the advantage. The Falcons rank 31st in the NFL in DVOA against the pass. I usually don’t endorse a QB-WR stack in cash games. But I’m not against it, especially if it doesn’t break the bank.
Tyler Boyd ($5,200 DK, $5,900 FD)
Boyd doesn’t have a trustworthy quarterback. He doesn’t have a high average targeted air yards number that a lot of predictors like to look for on a weekly basis. But, he has a great matchup and gets targeted regularly. In fact, he might be the most underpriced receiver based on the number of targets he receives. Boyd is averaging 10 targets per game. The Oakland Raiders are fourth-worst in pass DVOA (28.0%) and give up the sixth-most DK points to wide receivers (42.3). With the Raiders being heavy favorites, the game script would indicate the Bengals will be playing from behind a lot of the game. They’ll most likely need to throw the ball more in order to make up ground. Leading me to believe, Boyd has a good chance of improving upon his one receiving touchdown on the season.
Mohamed Sanu ($5,100 DK, $5,800 FD)
Reports are Sanu has done a wonderful job earning Tom Brady‘s trust, evidenced by his last game where he caught 10 passes on 14 targets for 81 yards and a TD. I think it’s fair to assume he’s picked up the Patriots system well, as he was on the field for 100% of the snaps. The way to beat the Philadelphia Eagles is through the air. The Eagles are allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (87.3). Meanwhile, they are allowing the eighth-most DK points per game to opposing wideouts (41.5). You don’t trade a second-round draft pick for a wide receiver in the middle of the season if you don’t plan on using him a lot. The increased volume last game seems like a sign of things to come.
Other Options: Courtland Sutton, Michael Thomas (If you can afford it)
Value: Russell Gage, Deebo Samuel
Tight End
Darren Waller ($5,500 DK, $6,700 FD)
I really don’t mind using multiple pieces from an offense in the same lineup for cash games, as long as the salary, matchup, and situation makes sense. Josh Jacobs is already plugged in, but Waller makes for a hard player to fade. Getting both in the same lineup seems like a risky strategy because it looks like a team stack. But the Oakland Raiders offense runs directly through both of these guys more times than not, which provides a high floor, given that one of them will go off more times than not, and they are both unlikely to put up a goose egg.
Noah Fant ($3,700 DK, $5,100 FD)
The Minnesota Vikings aren’t exactly bad against Tight Ends, but they aren’t exactly great against them either. We talk all the time about positive touchdown regression. Well, how about positive touchdown regression against? The Minnesota Vikings are the only team in the NFL who has yet to allow a receiving TD to a Tight End this season. While that is true, they are obviously a defense that funnels targets to the TE position, as they have allowed the second-most targets (one less than the Kansas City Chiefs) to TEs. They’ve also allowed the third-most receptions to TEs. You have to think the touchdowns will come sooner rather than later, and someone has to catch the ball for the Broncos, other than Courtland Sutton.
Other Options: Greg Olsen, Eric Ebron
Value: Dallas Goedert
Defense/Special Teams
New Orleans Saints ($2,900 DK, $4,800 FD)
The Saints rank sixth overall in defense DVOA (-7.7%) and tied for seventh in adjusted sack rate (7.9%). While Jameis Winston is third in the NFL in passing yards, he leads the league with 14 interceptions thrown. He’s also been sacked 34 times, which is more than any other QB. Despite being at home, the Saints should have some success against him, fantasy-wise.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD)
Brandon Allen and the Denver Broncos travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. As of writing this, the Broncos have the lowest Vegas implied team total. The Vikings get good pressure on QBs. They rank fourth with an 8.5% adjusted sack rate. Allen won his first start but threw for less than 200 yards. This aligns to be a difficult test for him.
Other Options: San Francisco 49ers (vs ARI), Buffalo Bills (@ MIA)
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