NFL Week 1 Betting Advice: Spreads to Bet, Avoid

Every week billions of dollars are wagered on the NFL. The most popular type of bet is the spread. Each week there are a few games with an appealing spread and others with an ugly spread. To help bettors figure out which spreads they should bet on and which to avoid, two of our NFL writers, Mike Fanelli and Dale Money, give their take on every spread for each of this weekend’s games. Let’s take a look at their picks for Week 1.

Spreads are provided by Jazz Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Be sure to check out our NFL betting advice article each week.

The Team to Bet

Mike: Minnesota Vikings -3

Even with the Cincinnati Bengals at home, the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal. The Vikings have a dynamic wide receiver duo in Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen that the Bengals can’t contain. Furthermore, starting cornerback Trae Waynes will miss this game with a hamstring injury, leaving Eli Apple to defend Jefferson or Thielen. Last year, the Bengals gave up over five yards per rushing attempt. While the Bengals made some changes to their defense this offseason, they project to struggle against the run this year. Dalvin Cook should have his way with the Cincinnati defense this week.

If that wasn’t enough reason to back the Vikings -3, the Bengals offense could be a disaster early in the year. During the entire preseason, Joe Burrow threw one pass. A screen pass that Ja’Marr Chase dropped. Speaking of Chase during the preseason, he struggled with separation and drops. If the Vikings shadow Chase with Patrick Peterson, the rookie is in for a long day. Between the Bengals’ struggles on both sides of the ball, the Vikings could end up winning by a touchdown or more tomorrow.

Dale: Buffalo Bills -6.5

Despite only being the starting quarterback for a third season, Josh Allen led them to their first conference championship since Jim Kelly did it in 1993. As part of the Bills’ commitment in the offseason, the team signed their franchise quarterback to a six-year contract extension, ensuring he will be the starter through at least 2028. Following the departures of Mike Hilton and Steve Nelson during the offseason, he could be facing a suspect Pittsburgh Steelers secondary in Week 1. Last season, Hilton and Nelson were ranked second and third on the team in interceptions. The only Steeler with more was Minkah Fitzpatrick.

In the win against the Steelers last season, the defense was crucial. Ben Roethlisberger managed just 200 yards through the air as he struggled to get anything going. Additionally, they held starting running back James Conner to just 18 yards on 10 rushing attempts. However, they will have to contend with the rookie Najee Harris. Even so, the Buffalo run defense will have him on the back foot to a degree. With Gregory Rousseau added in the draft, the Bills’ run defense grew that much stronger. Roethlisberger is at a point where he will most likely struggle if a shootout arises. Of the 13 victories by Buffalo last season, 11 of them were won by seven points or more.

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The Team to Avoid

Mike: Baltimore Ravens -4

Some believe the Raiders will be one of the bottom five teams in the NFL this season. Those people are wrong. Over the past two seasons, the Raiders have a 15-17 record. While that is far from ideal, that doesn’t mean they are one of the worst teams in the league. Furthermore, risky bettors should take a shot on the Raiders Moneyline at +165. The Raiders have one of the best mismatch weapons in the NFL with Darren Waller. Last season, Waller was unstoppable, totaling 107 receptions on 145 targets for 1,196 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Ravens gave up the fourth-most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards to the tight end position. Expect Waller to have his way with a banged-up Baltimore defense.

At this rate, the Ravens might not have enough bodies to play Monday. Over a span of 13 days, the Ravens lost three running backs to season-ending injuries. They also lost starting cornerback Marcus Peters for the year with a torn ACL on Thursday. Furthermore, the wide receiver core has also dealt with injuries. Their starting trio of Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and Rashod Bateman played a total of zero snaps in the preseason. While Brown and Watkins will play Monday night, Bateman will start the year on injured reserve. With all the injuries on both sides of the ball, Lamar Jackson will need to have one of the best games of his career for the Ravens to cover the four-point spread. Back the Raiders and the points.

Dale: New York Giants +3

Until late August, the starting job for Broncos quarterback was a two-horse race between Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. The job would ultimately go to Bridgewater after playing a critical role in their preseason victories over the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks. Bridgewater completed 16-19 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in those games. The offense that Bridgewater inherits appears to be pretty solid on paper. Paired with Melvin Gordon, the addition of Javonte Williams leaves the Broncos with a threatening-looking running back duo.

For the Giants, there is a strong possibility Daniel Jones will enter this game severely underhanded. Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram, and Kadarius Toney are among the players who are coming off an injury and might not play or play at 100 percent. Additionally, Jones will have to contend with a revamped defensive unit on the other side. In addition to Von Miller’s return, the Broncos also added cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Caden Sterns in the draft. With a banged-up offense, the Giants will struggle to score against a talented Broncos defense. Bettors should avoid this spread outright or lay the points with Denver.

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