The 2018 season couldn’t have gone any better for the New England Patriots. They won the AFC East for the 10th straight season and reached the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. They capped the year off with a Super Bowl win over the Las Angeles Rams. The victory was sweet, but the job is never over for the Patriots front office. The page has quickly turned to free agency and what Patriot players might be offered a contract.
One of the most important positions for New England to focus on during free agency is at wide receiver. Both Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett are headed into free agency this season and New England has to make some tough decisions in the weeks ahead. Each receiver is important within the offense but has either of them done enough to be worth retaining.
Here’s a case both for and against keeping each receiver:
Chris Hogan
Keep: Since he arrived in New England three seasons ago, Chris Hogan has been a reliable third option for Tom Brady. He can line up all over the field, although his strength is usually on the outside as opposed to the slot position. In his first season with the Patriots, he was very productive as a second or third option. He had 38 catches that resulted in 680 yards and four touchdowns. That was a perfect complimentary performance in his first year playing in the Patriots’ complicated system.
He has also stepped up in the playoffs during his tenure with the Patriots. In his first season, he caught 17 balls for 332 yards and two touchdowns. This included the thrashing of Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game where he had 180 yards and two touchdown receptions. In the following season’s Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia, Hogan had six catches for 128 yards and one touchdown, showing he can step up while in the spotlight.
Hogan is a talented veteran that is familiar with the system and has a good rapport with Tom Brady. He could be more valuable to the Patriots than any other team due to the precarious position New England has found themselves in with their wideouts. Corderelle Patterson and Philip Dorsett are both free agents and Josh Gordon likely has a suspension coming his way. He may never put a Patriots uniform on again depending on how seriously he takes his recovery. Julian Edelman is the only established passing option that will definitely be back next season, but he isn’t getting any younger.
Hogan has a spot on this roster because of familiarity, but he may need to be flexible with his contract if he wants to stay in New England. The one thing the Patriots will not do is overpay for a third option at wide receiver.
Walk: Hogan has underperformed and has failed to live up to expectations. His first season was solid and he nearly matched those numbers in year two, despite playing in just nine games. His injury-riddled season still showed promise for the final year of his contract.
Players are supposed to excel in contract years in hopes of securing a deal worth a lot of money. Hogan failed to put up the numbers that the Patriots expected from him during his contract season. He only had 35 catches for 532 yards and three touchdowns. That amounts to 93 more yards and two fewer touchdowns than the season before, in which he only played in nine games. Hogan started in all 16 games this season, which makes his production look even worse when comparing it to the nine games from the prior year.
Hogan had the chance to prove himself as the No. 1 wideout while Julian Edelman was serving his four-game suspension, but couldn’t solidify himself as the top option. He had an underwhelming eight catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns in those first four games. Those are numbers that one would expect a premier wide receiver to have in one game, not in four games. Pro Football Focus even had him rated as the worst Patriots receiver when lined up on the outside.
If he can’t win on the outside and there are better options in the slot, it might be time for New England to find a younger, cheaper option at wide receiver.
Phillip Dorsett
Keep: Phillip Dorsett is a highly talented wideout that runs crisp routes and has ankle-breaking speed, but has yet to be utilized effectively in his first two seasons in New England. This comes as a surprise seeing as Bill Belichick is known to bring the best out of his players. It’s even more puzzling when looking at the numbers when Brady targeted Dorsett.
He caught 32 of his 42 targets for a 76.2 percent catch rate, which is sixth highest in the NFL. According to Sharp Football Stats, Dorsett had a 102 passer rating and a 60 percent success rate when targeted this season. Dorsett is known for his speed on the outside but surprisingly he had a 74.2 percent success rate on passes of 15 yards or fewer.
Dorsett’s role took a major hit with the acquisition of Josh Gordon, but once Gordon was suspended he seized the opportunity. He seemed to click with Brady as he caught 10 balls for 104 yards and three touchdowns after Gordon was removed from the equation. That momentum carried into the playoffs where he was able to catch crucial touchdowns against both the Chargers and Chiefs in the first two rounds.
At 26, he is a cheap option that has built a connection with Tom Brady. He could be an easy fit in a position of need for New England.
Walk: Dorsett has not lived up to the first-round hype he received when he was drafted by the Colts. In year two with New England, he had a mere 290 yards on 32 receptions with three touchdowns. The majority of those stats came after Gordon was jettisoned from the roster and he still failed to become a consistent contributor in the offense.
He was limited to the fourth or fifth option at times, and even with Chris Hogan struggling for most of the season, Dorsett was unable to usurp Hogan on the depth chart. He also disappeared during the Super Bowl when it mattered most. He failed to even garner a single target on the biggest stage of them all.
Dorsett should come at a discount based off of career production so he could see a lot of interest from teams that have very little wiggle room with their salary cap.
