Kevin Walsh | September 28th, 2019
GAME THEORY
All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. Its also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.
TOURNAMENT STACKS
I am going to change up this format a little bit, since I talk about players by positions already, and talk about just full games I want to stack that I think are going to be the firestorms of the week.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants
Initially, I had this game pegged as the game of the week, but some things have crept in that makes me think less of this game. With Terry McLaurin in danger of missing the game, it becomes a lot harder to stack either side, but I think we can still look to this game for some fantasy points. Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram are pretty locked in for targets, Wayne Gallman will get the bulk of the touches at running back, and all the Redskins receivers are cheap, especially if McLaurin sits.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Between Arizona’s torrid pace and Seattle’s middling defense, this game could also go off this week. Russell Wilson was a madman last week, and I would expect that to continue as trust in Chris Carson wanes after his fumbling problems of late. Kyler Murray is still going to throw the ball a lot, so both Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk are still reasonably priced for their volume. There is a lot to like here.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions
It’s becoming increasingly tough to ignore Patrick Mahomes on any slate, and this week is no different. Despite having two great corners in Darius Slay and Justin Coleman, I would still expect Mahomes to get his usual 35 DK points. The real question lies in who to stack with him. The Lions should be looking to run Kerryon Johnson into the ground this game, and KC has been allowing over six yards per carry so far this season, but they will still need to take to the air when KC starts scoring. You just can’t ignore one of the biggest totals on the week.
Honorable Mention: Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans
POSITION BY POSITION
I will refrain from continuing to mention the same players across sections, so these will be more about other players I am interested in outside of big game stacks. I will try to pick a player or two in each pricing tier (high, middle, low). Note that I will leave quarterbacks belonging to the stacked games above out of this section, as I probably like all of them if I want to stack up those games.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson ($6,400)
We still haven’t seen that ballistic, slate-breaking week from Watson yet, so I feel as though it is coming. Their defense hasn’t been that spectacular of late either, so if the Panthers put up some points, Watson is going to be leaned on heavy this game.
Jared Goff ($6,300)
The Tampa secondary has been total trash so far this season. Pair that with some recency bias against the Rams offense as a whole and we could have Goff’s coming out party for 2019 on Sunday.
Jameis Winston ($5,700)
On the other side of that game, Winston should be slinging it to stay in the game against Goff and the Rams. While Bruce Arians tries to get the running game going, it won’t get far against this front four. My only concern is the availability of Chris Godwin this game, which could open things up for O.J. Howard if Godwin were to miss.
Honorable Mentions – Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800)
He reminded everyone last week that when the quarterback feeds him the ball, good things happen. After a dead week of Cam Newton throwing the ball into the ground in some effort to show that he is the star of the offense, CMC is the real horse on this team. Kyle Allen fed him gratuitously and I would expect that to continue this week against the formidable Texans offense.
Mark Ingram ($6,600)
It’s tough to like anybody in this game, but it seems like Ingram is getting the volume going forward. While Gus Edwards will always be there to take some carries, Ingram is the main man in Baltimore. Cleveland has been pretty bad considering all the offseason hype, and it doesn’t get easier for them against Baltimore this week. When the score gets out of hand, Ingram should be pounding clock and grinding fantasy points.
Dalvin Cook ($8,300)
I imagine this will be a low-owned play because of the matchup, but Cook has been tearing up the league so far. The zone blocking scheme has done wonders so far this year, and Kirk Cousins hasn’t had to throw much for them to win games. He always has that potential to break a slate, even against a solid Chicago defense.
Derrick Henry ($6,300)
Atlanta has been getting torn up on the ground lately. Tennessee is always a team that wants to pound the rock, and this week should not be any different. Add in that Henry has been somewhat involved in the passing game and we have a great floor for Henry with potential for a ceiling game.
Austin Ekeler ($8,000)
I admittedly wanted to fade Ekeler this week thinking that they might run Justin Jackson into the ground in the second half, but now Jackson has been ruled out (among several other prominent Chargers players), so I don’t think you can fade him much this week, even though his price has become relatively prohibitive.
Fade – Wayne Gallman ($4,600)
The price is right, especially in a week where there isn’t a ton of cheap chalk, but I will be less than the field on Gallman. He will get the touches, but he is not nearly as talented as Saquon Barkley and cheap chalk tends to fail a lot. I can’t fault anyone for playing him, but I think I will not have a ton of him this week.
Honorable Mentions – David Johnson, Marlon Mack, Kenyan Drake, Chris Thompson (DK only)
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones ($7,800)
Julio gets a matchup against Malcolm Butler who has been getting torched thus far against much less talented receivers. Atlanta should struggle to run the ball against Tennessee’s front four, so the passing game should be in play here. Calvin Ridley is also a great bounce-back candidate.
Keenan Allen ($7,600)
Another player I hadn’t planned on highlighting, but the Chargers are sitting pretty much everyone else on their offense, including Justin Jackson, Travis Benjamin, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry, and Virgil Green. Somebody has to catch the ball, especially against the hapless Dolphins.
Kenny Golladay ($5,900)
Golladay received a significant price drop after his 2/17/0 stat line last week. Kansas City is going to take them to task and Matthew Stafford and company are going to need to keep up. This is another great bounce-back candidate and using recency bias is advantageous here. I really like most of the passing game in Detroit this week, even if Kerryon Johnson is the obvious play on the offense.
Honorable Mentions – Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Sterling Shepard, Preston Williams (deep GPP only)
Tight End
Travis Kelce ($7,200)
As I have said before, my tight end section is going to look similar every week, and this is no different. Detroit has two solid corners but no one good enough to match up with Kelce. This could be the big week we have been waiting for.
Evan Engram ($5,700)
Daniel Jones coming in for Eli Manning may have actually helped Engram’s value, which was unclear last week. Sterling Shepard is the only other real weapon the Giants have in the passing game until they get Golden Tate back next week from suspension. Get Engram in now when the target share is guaranteed.
Will Dissly ($3,600)
To me, this feels like a trap. Arizona has been a sieve to tight ends to open the season, Russ seems to find Dissly when they go pass-heavy, and all the stars are aligning for a big game. A word of caution – I would not be shocked if Dissly finished the day 3/23/0 and letting down fantasy owners everywhere.
Honorable Mentions – Darren Waller, O.J. Howard, Delanie Walker
Defense/Special Teams
Patriots ($3.700)
Tough to argue against a defense who hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown since last season. It should be a hard-fought game against the Bills, but I imagine the score stays low and they sack Josh Allen a few times. This is certainly a reasonable play for the volatile position.
Broncos ($2,900)
I will repeat this from my value article – how does this team have no sacks or turnovers in three weeks, and how long can it continue? Gardner Minshew is the darling of meme creators everywhere, but he is bound to make some mistakes. The Jaguars offensive line is pretty bad and it could be a reinvigoration of Von Miller this week. This is my favorite defense of the week.
Fade – Chargers ($3,800)
The defense is already banged up, and the cocky Chargers are already sitting a bunch of players like this is a walk in the park. I would expect Miami to score some points this week and catch them with their pants down. I will have some Chargers I am sure but less than the field by a mile.
Honorable Mentions – Colts, Panthers, Rams
Ownership Considerations
In this section, I will list my favorite player at each position that is projected to be less than 5% owned. These will sometimes be dart-throws, and some will be more conviction plays and leverage spots. Don’t go slamming all these guys in one lineup and expecting success. They are low-owned for a reason, folks.
QB – Matt Ryan – The running game is going to get stuffed into the ground, and Ryan is plenty talented enough to beat this Titans defense.
RB – Derrick Henry – I don’t get how he will be less than 5% owned at all.
WR – Marquise Brown – He is hovering right around that 5% mark, but it seems likely as ever that he catches a bomb for a touchdown.
TE – T.J. Hockenson – Stafford is looking for him in the red zone and the stat lines aren’t showing it yet. It’s a plus matchup against a high-powered offense yet mediocre defense.
DST – Carolina Panthers– They can at least sack Watson who is sacked more than anyone over his tenure in the NFL, which can lead to turnovers and defensive touchdowns.
TWO MINUTE WARNING
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter. I will answer any questions you have!
Let’s make that money this week!
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