Good to be back once again. Let’s see if we can keep the winners coming and bulk up the billfold with a bet from each sport tonight. If you behave, the Daily Wager may include a nice parlay for your betting pleasure on a Monday evening. Spend, profit, rinse, repeat. Let’s make some money.
You can find more of Sam’s Weekly Wagers here.
NBA: Philadelphia 76ers (-3, -110) at Atlanta Hawks, 7:35 p.m. EDT (TNT)
Another day, another ‘Q’ next to the name Joel Embiid. Until we get burned by a DNP, we’ll soldier on with the assumption that Embiid will suit up in the playoffs. After all, the more quickly the 76ers dispatch the Hawks, the more rest they get afterwards. Embiid has been questionable for every contest since Game 4 of the Washington series after which he was diagnosed with a minor meniscus tear in his knee. At this point, it’s all pain tolerance. That tolerance looked just fine in Game 3 when the big center racked up 27 points, nine boards and eight assists, flirting with a triple-double. He added three blocks. Not bad for a bum knee.
Philly is 11-6 ATS as favorites in the opposition’s building and are turning the ball over just over 10 percent of the time after a disastrous Game 1. That, and a 1.26 point-per-possession advantage with Embiid on the court is what landed them in the series lead at 2-1. The Hawks do not have an answer for Philadelphia, and particularly the NBA MVP runner-up. As a bonus, the under bet (u225.5) looks awfully good here, as well as the Hawks (+1) first quarter line at home. If you’re only going to make one bet, though, go for the gusto.
Book it: 76ers -3 (-110)
NHL: Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights (u5.5), 9:00 p.m. EDT (NBCS)
The first matchup between these two teams since January PP (pre-pandemic) drops in Las Vegas, NV tonight. The home Knights hope to capture their first Game 1 victory in the NHL Semifinal matchup, and they likely will. Vegas oddsmakers have installed the Knights as 1.5 goal favorites. While Marc-Andre Fleury has been amazing this season, having Carey Price between the pipes for Montreal is enough to scare me off from the spread on either side.
It’s with that same sentiment that we’re going with the goal total (5.5) in this matchup. Vegas is going to be fired up and it’s a sure thing that Peter DeBoer is going to send everything but the kitchen sink at Price before the first intermission. The likelihood of Jeff Petry (hand) donning a sweater for this one seems like a longshot, yet the Habs are more likely to exercise caution rather than rush him back. Even lacking that defensive presence, 5.5 goals in a conference final seems a little much with Price in goal. We’re laying it down on the under.
Book it: Under 5.5 (-135) total goals
MLB: Chicago Cubs (-105, o8.5) at New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. EDT
Candy from a baby, here. Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) has not been good, to say the least. He represents the Cubs while southpaw David Peterson, who has been even worse (1-5, 6.32, 1.51) toes the rubber for the Mets. This should be a high-scoring affair.
Neither starter is blowing anyone away at the plate in the strikeout category (bonus take: Peterson u5.5 Ks in this one) and both are guilty of putting men on base via the walk. It’s not hard to imagine one or both of these pitchers to be lifted in the fourth inning. The Cubs are likely to stick with Arrieta regardless of his run total, however, with Alec Mills scheduled for Tuesday and the infamous TBD slated on Wednesday.
Peterson is in the upper (lower?) third of qualifying pitchers with a 6.32 earned run average and the Cubs have been swinging hot bats of late. The top of this lineup should tee off on Peterson. While the Mets have played well recently (won five of last seven) and will get to Arrieta, the Cubs bullpen has been on lockdown for the better part of 2021 and will tighten the screws late, especially at Citi Field. We’re in on Chicago winning a game that will likely see a slew of men on base.
Book it: Parlay Chicago Cubs money line (-105), over 8.5 total runs (-125)
Spend big, spend smart. Let’s keep the good times rolling.
Main Image designed by Jeremy Guerin @jeremycguerin