Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 46-31-1 (9-6 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 39-38-1 (11-4 last week)
Confidence Points: 121.6 (+17.9 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 28.9 (+60.2 last week)
Thursday Game:
Giants at Patriots (NE -16.5)
Patriots 31, Giants 10
Confidence: 10.0
Spread Confidence: 7.3
The Giants have no shot of winning this game. They could keep it within 17, but I seriously doubt they win.
Sunday Games:
Saints at Jaguars (NO -1)
SURVIVAL PICK: Saints 24, Jaguars 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
This Saints team is legit, and I expect them to go into Jacksonville and defeat the Jaguars.
Falcons at Cardinals (ARZ +2.5)
Cardinals 24, Falcons 22
Confidence: 2.7
Spread confidence: 4.6
The Falcons have been terrible, and I do not think they will be able to stop the Arizona offense.
Titans at Broncos (DEN -2.5)
Broncos 17, Titans 14 (F/OT)
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 6.8
Denver is tough to beat at home, and I think they narrowly pull out a win over the Titans.
Panthers vs Buccaneers (CAR -2)
Panthers 17, Buccaneers 14
Confidence: 9.0
Spread confidence: 8.1
I expect the Panthers to feed Christian McCaffrey and treat London to a good game.
Eagles at Vikings (PHI +3)
Eagles 26, Vikings 17
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 10
The Vikings have been poor against good teams, and the Eagles qualify as a good team.
49ers at Rams (SF +4.5)
49ers 27, Rams 24 (F/OT)
Confidence: 5.1
Spread confidence: 6.3
The 49ers have played extraordinarily well this season. The Rams are in a bit of a rut, but this should be the game of the week.
Bengals at Ravens (CIN +12)
Ravens 31, Bengals 24
Confidence: 5.6
Spread confidence: 7.1
There is a large disparity in terms of talent between the two teams, but the Bengals rarely are blown out by the Ravens.
Seahawks at Browns (SEA +2.5)
Seahawks 21, Browns 20
Confidence: 6.1
Spread confidence: 10
If the good Browns show up, this game will rival 49ers-Rams as the game of the week. I anticipate it being close.
Cowboys at Jets (DAL -8.5)
Cowboys 28, Jets 17
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 5.4
Even with the return of Sam Darnold, I think the Cowboys win by two possessions.
Texans at Chiefs (KC -5)
Chiefs 41, Texans 34
Confidence: 8.8
Spread confidence: 4.1
The best offensive matchup of the week could yield the game of the week. It should be close, but I will take the Chiefs by a touchdown.
Redskins at Dolphins (MIA +3.5)
Dolphins 20, Redskins 17
Confidence: 0.0
Spread confidence: 0.1
I want absolutely nothing to do with this game.
Sunday Night Football:
Steelers at Chargers (LAC -6)
Chargers 21, Steelers 14
Confidence: 8.6
Spread confidence: 1.2
The Steelers and Chargers are both messes. I think the Chargers win, but I do not trust them enough to warrant wagering more points.
Monday Night Football:
Lions at Packers (GB -4.5)
Packers 28, Lions 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 7.6
I think the Packers are the superior team.
