Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 37-25-1 (8-7 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 28-34-1 (5-10 last week)
Confidence Points: 103.7 (-6.7 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: -31 (-31.3 last week)
Thursday Game:
Rams at Seahawks (LAR +1.5)
Rams 23, Seahawks 21
Confidence: 7.8
Spread Confidence: 8
Divisional games are the toughest to predict, but I think the Rams steal one on the road in Seattle.
Sunday Games:
Ravens at Steelers (BAL -3.5)
Ravens 27, Steelers 21
Confidence: 4.7
Spread confidence: 3.8
I am not too thrilled with picking the Ravens after they were crushed last week, but they seem to be the superior team in this matchup.
Bears at Raiders (OAK +6)
Bears 17, Raiders 14
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 6.4
I do not think the Bears’ offense is explosive enough to win by more than a touchdown.
Cardinals at Bengals (CIN -3)
Bengals 31, Cardinals 21
Confidence: 8.9
Spread confidence: 8.8
Arizona has a pitiful record when they travel to the eastern time zone. Cincinnati should boost my points.
Jaguars at Panthers (JAX +3.5)
Panthers 20, Jaguars 17
Confidence: 8.8
Spread confidence: 9.8
The Panthers have a tremendous front seven that should wreak havoc on the Jaguars. The Jaguars should keep the game close, however.
Vikings at Giants (MIN -5.5)
Vikings 28, Giants 20
Confidence: 6.1
Spread confidence: 4.7
Dalvin Cook should have a field day against the Giants’ defense.
Patriots at Redskins (NE -15.5)
Patriots 41, Redskins 10
Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 10.0
The Patriots might drop another 40 points on the Redskins.
Jets at Eagles (PHI -13.5)
SURVIVOR PICK: Eagles 31, Jets 6
Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 10.0
The Jets are an atrocious team. The Eagles should throttle them.
Buccaneers at Saints (NO -3.5)
Saints 27, Buccaneers 22
Confidence: 8.1
Spread confidence: 7.6
The Saints have been playing well without Drew Brees. I expect them to win Sunday.
Falcons at Texans (HOU -5)
Texans 24, Falcons 14
Confidence: 9.2
Spread confidence: 6.7
The Falcons have been terrible in 2019. I expect the Texans to roll.
Bills at Titans (BUF +3)
Bills 21, Titans 20
Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 10
Buffalo has been good this season, so I expect them to win in Nashville.
Broncos at Chargers (DEN +6.5)
Chargers 25, Broncos 20
Confidence: 9.2
Spread confidence: 8.1
The Broncos are unlucky to be 0-4, but they will deservedly fall to 0-5 this week.
Packers at Cowboys (GB +3.5)
Cowboys 23, Packers 20
Confidence: 7.1
Spread confidence: 4.4
The Packers have created a mess for me. I think they lose this week, but they keep it close enough to cover.
Colts at Chiefs (IND +11)
Chiefs 31, Colts 24
Confidence: 9.9
Spread confidence: 10
11 points is a lot to cover, and I do not think the Chiefs have a good enough defense to keep the Colts from competing.
Monday Night Football:
Browns at 49ers (CLE +3.5)
49ers 24, Browns 21
Confidence: 3.2
Spread confidence: 3.3
This could be the game of the week. I think a late field goal wins it for the 49ers.
