Splash’s Week 4 Predictions

Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This is my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.

Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.

Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.

Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.

Straight-up Record: 29-18-1 (9-7 last week)

Against the Spread Record: 23-24-1 (8-8 last week)

Confidence Points: 110.4 (+32.4 last week)

ATS Confidence Points: -0.3 (-2.7 last week)

Thursday Game:

Eagles at Packers (GB -4.5)

Packers 23, Eagles 16

Confidence: 9.1
Spread Confidence: 6.5

I have finally committed to the Packers winning some games. Earn me points, please.

Sunday Games:

Panthers at Texans (HOU -4)

Texans 27, Panthers 21

Confidence: 8.4
Spread confidence: 5.2

I think the Texans are the vastly superior team.

Browns at Ravens (BAL -5.5)

Ravens 23, Browns 17 F/OT

Confidence: 8.2

Spread confidence: 4.9

The Ravens should beat the Browns, but the Ravens are also about to enter their annual slump, so the Browns could surprise.

Redskins at Giants (NYG -3)

Giants 24, Redskins 14

Confidence: 1.6
Spread confidence: 0.9

I trust Daniel Jones more than Case Keenum.

Chargers at Dolphins (MIA +17)

Chargers 20, Dolphins 6

Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 0.1

I do not trust the Chargers to cover.

Raiders at Colts (IND -7)

Colts 31, Raiders 20

Confidence: 7.7
Spread confidence: 6.3

Much to the chagrin of Colts fans, I expect the Colts to handle their business.

Chiefs at Lions (KC -6.5)

Survivor pick: Chiefs 38, Lions 21

Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 10.0

I thoroughly expect the Chiefs to decimate the Lions.

Patriots at Bills (NE -7)

Patriots 26, Bills 14

Confidence: 10.0
Spread confidence: 7.2

The Bills will keep it close for a while, but the Patriots are the best team in football.

Titans at Falcons (TEN +4.5)

Titans 17, Falcons 15

Confidence: 1.2
Spread confidence: 2.1

I genuinely want nothing to do with this game. These teams are as hard to predict as they come.

Buccaneers at Rams (TB +9.5)

Rams 31, Buccaneers 23

Confidence: 9.9
Spread confidence: 4.1

I think the Bucs keep it close enough to cover, but this one could get ugly if Jameis Winston throws a couple of interceptions.

Seahawks at Cardinals (SEA -4)

Seahawks 35, Cardinals 26

Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 6.7

Seattle and Arizona burned me last week. I will once again put my faith in the Seahawks to secure a victory.

Vikings at Bears (MIN +2.5)

Vikings 21, Bears 17

Confidence: 7.4
Spread confidence: 7.9

Mitchell Trubisky will make or break this game for the Bears. I think he breaks it.

Jaguars at Broncos (JAX +3)

Jaguars 21, Broncos 15

Confidence: 8.0
Spread confidence: 8.4

I think Denver is really bad. I think Jacksonville is less bad. Congrats.

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys at Saints (DAL -3)

Cowboys 24, Saints 20

Confidence: 6.4
Spread confidence: 5.1

The Saints are incredibly tough to beat at home, but I think the Cowboys will get the job done.

Monday Night Football:

Bengals at Steelers (CIN +5)

Steelers 23, Bengals 22

Confidence: 0.0
Spread confidence: 0.0

Pittsburgh has dominated the recent series between these two teams.

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