Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Survivor Picks: 9-1 (over)
Straight-up Record: 125-81-1 (11-5 last week)
Against the Spread Record: 102-99-6 (7-6-3 last week)
Confidence Points: 448.9 (+51 last week)
ATS Confidence Points: 73.0 (+6.0 last week)
Thursday Game:
Jets at Ravens (NYJ +14.5)
Ravens 23, Jets 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
The Ravens should win, but they have been ravaged by injuries on the short week. I do not think they blow out the Jets.
Sunday Games:
Buccaneers at Lions (-3.5)
Buccaneers 34, Lions 20
Confidence: 9.1
Spread confidence: 8.9
The Buccaneers will return to .500. Congrats!
Eagles at Redskins (PHI -4.5)
Eagles 30, Redskins 20
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.6
The Eagles are vastly superior to the Redskins. They will win big.
Bears at Packers (CHI +4.5)
Bears 23, Packers 20
Confidence: 5.3
Spread confidence: 6.5
In what should be a close affair, I think the Bears will prevail with a late field goal.
Patriots at Bengals (NE -9.5)
Patriots 24, Bengals 10
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.7
The Patriots will return to form with a multi-score win over the hapless Bengals.
Texans at Titans (TEN -3)
Titans 31, Texans 27
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.2
The Titans are the hottest team in football (outside of Baltimore), and I expect them to carry their momentum into a defeat of the Texans.
Seahawks at Panthers (SEA -6)
Seahawks 34, Panthers 3
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 10
Kyle Allen. That is all.
Broncos at Chiefs (DEN +9.5)
Chiefs 30, Broncos 21
Confidence: 9.8
Spread confidence: 7.2
The Broncos have gotten off to a hot start in the Drew Lock era, and I think they will keep it relatively close against the Chiefs.
Dolphins at Giants (MIA +3.5)
Dolphins 21, Giants 17
Confidence: 8.2
Spread confidence: 9.3
The Giants are terrible. They are awful. They are a pathetic excuse of a football team.
Jaguars at Raiders (OAK -6.5)
Raiders 34, Jaguars 15
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 9.5
The Raiders play hard. The Jaguars seem more interested in being massacred weekly. The Raiders will roll.
Browns at Cardinals (CLE -2.5)
Browns 24, Cardinals 20
Confidence: 1.7
Spread confidence: 1.3
Despite Baker Mayfield’s amnesia concerning competent quarterbacking, the Browns should win.
Vikings at Chargers (MIN -2.5)
Vikings 31, Chargers 24
Confidence: 7.5
Spread confidence: 7.2
I thoroughly expect the Chargers to lose their ninth game by one possession.
Falcons at 49ers (SF -11)
49ers 38, Falcons 24
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 8.7
The 49ers will remember how to play defense, and they will clobber the Falcons.
Rams at Cowboys (LAR -1)
Rams 27, Cowboys 20
Confidence: 8.6
Spread confidence: 8.6
I have jumped off the Cowboy train this week. The Rams should win.
Sunday Night Football:
Bills at Steelers (PIT -2)
Steelers 13, Bills 10
Confidence: 1.0
Spread confidence: 0.8
The Bills have not won a Sunday Night Football game in nearly two decades. I do not expect that to change.
Monday Night Football:
Colts at Saints (IND +9)
Saints 27, Colts 21
Confidence: 10
Spread confidence: 6.5
Sorry, Saints fans. I am playing the numbers here. The Saints are vastly superior, but I do not think they will blow out the Colts.
