Welcome to my weekly installment of NFL picks. This will be my first year doing picks against the spread and my second year doing picks in general.
Feel free to keep track of your predictions and see if you can beat me.
Each week, I will make one survivor pick. When I select a team as a survivor pick, I will be unable to select them for the rest of the season. If my survivor pick loses, I will forgo the survivor pick for the remainder of the season.
Each pick will have an applied confidence level both for the spread and for the straight-up game. Confidence will be a number between 0.0 and 10.0 and will be added to or subtracted from the total depending on if the result goes in my favor. Survivor picks will always be denoted as a 10.
Straight-up Record: 0-0
Against the Spread Record: 0-0
Confidence Points: 0
ATS Confidence Points: 0
Thursday Game:
Packers at Bears (CHI -3)
Bears 27, Packers 21
Confidence: 8
Spread Confidence: 6.4
To open the NFL’s 100th season, the Bears dispatch the Packers.
Sunday Games:
Titans at Browns (TEN +5.5)
Browns 24, Titans 20
5.5 is a lot to give up, so I will take the Titans with the points.
Confidence: 6.2
Spread Confidence: 7.8
Ravens at Dolphins (BAL -6.5)
Ravens 31, Dolphins 21
Confidence: 9
Spread Confidence: 5.9
This screams “Dolphins +6.5,” but the Ravens have had a stretch of hot starts and a stretch of clobbering the Dolphins.
Falcons at Vikings (MIN -3.5)
Vikings 24, Falcons 19
Confidence: 5.8
Spread Confidence 2.2
3.5 is an awkward number here. I do not have much confidence in the Vikings covering, but I do think they will win narrowly.
Bills at Jets (NYJ -3)
Jets 22, Bills 16
Confidence: 6.1
Spread Confidence 4.5
Similar to the Falcons-Vikings game, 3 is an awkward spread. I’ll take the home team and give up the points.
Redskins at Eagles (WSH +9.5)
Eagles 23, Redskins 14
Confidence: 9.3
Spread Confidence: 8
9.5 is a gargantuan spread, and I will happily take the Redskins and the points even though the Eagles will likely prevail.
Rams at Panthers (LAR -3)
Rams 31, Panthers 24
Confidence: 7.2
Spread Confidence 6.1
I usually hesitate on matchups like these, but I think the Rams can come into Charlotte and get a win.
Chiefs at Jaguars (KC -4)
Chiefs 28, Jaguars 23
Confidence: 7.2
Spread Confidence: 5.1
In a near-identical situation to the Rams-Panthers game, I expect the Chiefs to win a close one.
Colts at Chargers (LAC -6.5)
SURVIVOR PICK: Chargers 31, Colts 20
Confidence: 10
Spread Confidence: 8.2
I am skittish on the Chargers season as a whole, and this might be my riskiest survivor pick for the whole season, but I do not expect the Colts to be competitive here.
Bengals at Seahawks (CIN +9.5)
Seahawks 20, Bengals 13
Confidence: 9.5
Spread Confidence: 9.6
I will take the Bengals and the points. If I get burned with a double-digit Seahawks win, I will not be ashamed.
Giants at Cowboys (NYG +7)
Cowboys 21, Giants 17
Confidence: 8.1
Spread Confidence: 7.4
I’d be genuinely shocked if the Giants won, but I do think they keep it close enough.
Lions at Cardinals (ARZ +2.5)
Cardinals 21, Lions 20
Confidence: 4.1
Spread Confidence: 6.1
It will not be an often occurrence that I go opposite the spread here, but the Cardinals at home offer upside.
49ers at Buccaneers (49ers +0)
49ers 30, Buccaneers 27
Confidence: 5.1
Spread Confidence: 5.1
In the only pick ‘em game of the week, I will take Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners on the road.
Sunday Night Football:
Steelers at Patriots (NE -5.5)
Patriots 28, Steelers 21
Confidence: 9
Spread Confidence: 6.1
The Patriots are notorious for their slow starts in recent years, but I give them the edge against the Steelers.
Monday Games:
Texans at Saints (HOU +7)
Saints 20, Texans 14
Confidence: 9.3
Spread Confidence: 5.1
I very nearly took this game as my survivor pick. I think the Saints are a lock to win, but the Texans should keep it close.
Broncos at Raiders (DEN +1)
Broncos 28, Raiders 19
Confidence: 8.8
Spread Confidence: 8.9
I think the oddsmakers overestimate the Raiders here. I will gladly take the extra point in the event of a tie and choose the Broncos.
