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Reward Outweighs Risk in Patrick Mahomes Extension

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On Monday afternoon, there was a bomb thrown at the sports world by a bartender in Kansas City.

Inside Plaza Liquor, Katie Camlin was serving six bottles of Dom Perignon champagne to a fellow who said that he was a Chiefs employee. The employee stated that the Chiefs were making a big signing and Katie defaulted straight to Patrick Mahomes. As a big Chiefs fan, she posted to Twitter that Patrick Mahomes was on the verge of an extension. Little did she know that she had broken the news of the decade before ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes announced later that night that they had reached an agreement on the largest contract in pro sports history: a 10-year pact worth up to $503 million.

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Mahomes certainly has done enough to earn this mind-boggling contract. Drafted in 2017 with the 10th overall pick, Mahomes sat on the bench as a rookie behind Alex Smith. The Chiefs traded Smith to the Washington Redskins that offseason, giving the starting job to Mahomes. The Texas Tech product took that opportunity and ran with it, putting together one of the best seasons in recent memory and taking home MVP honors. This past season, the 24-year-old led the Chiefs to their first Super Bowl win in over 50 years.

In the last two seasons, Mahomes has taken the spot as the No. 1 quarterback in the NFL with 89 passing touchdowns, 10,602 passing yards, 27 wins, a 79.0 QBR, and 8.5 yards per attempt.

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Just how rare are extensions of the kind given to Mahomes? The only other quarterbacks that have gotten extensions of 10 years or more are Drew Bledsoe in 2001, Brett Farve in 2001, Donovan McNabb in 2002 and Daunte Culpepper in 2003

When analyzing that list, one may wonder why Kansas City chose to extend a 24-year-old through his age 37 season. After all, so much can happen between now and then. However, being cautious over the risk of Mahomes turning out like Bledsoe isn’t worth passing over the reward that he has shown already.

The Chiefs are not running a big risk as Mahomes has proven to be one of the most consistent players in many years and appears to only be getting better. At this young age, he has led comebacks that even some veterans can’t. He had a 50-touchdown season, three 10-point comebacks in one postseason, and has amassed a career’s worth of awards in just two seasons.

The most comparable contracts are Brett Farve’s and Donovan McNabb’s as the risks in both cases were fairly low. The common theme among all of these quarterbacks is that they are durable, built, intelligent, and receptive. Those traits are rare as a bunch and the Chiefs were blessed to select such a talent. The reward certainly outweighs the risk in this unprecedented contract.

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