As we hit the midway point of the 2023 NFL season, we have a good idea of which rookies are performing above expectations and which rookies are leaving their teams with some serious buyer’s remorse.
Here, we’ll be taking a look at each team’s first-round draft selections and analyzing if they hit or stuck out, along with redrafting where we believe is necessary.Ā
1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago)
Original Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
New Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The Panthers moved four draft picks and star receiver DJ Moore to acquire Bryce Young in the 2023 draft. I understand it’s early and Young could turn things around, but with Stroud completely balling out and an absolutely loaded 2024 draft class at the quarterback position, it looks as though the Panthers may have made a mistake.
.@CJ7STROUD put up the most passing yards by a rookie in a game in NFL history on Sunday š®āšØ
š C.J. Stroud ā 470 YDS
š Andrew Luck ā 433 YDS
š Cam Newton ā 432 YDS
š Ryan Tannehill ā 431 YDS pic.twitter.com/Hm7vZcFYmB— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 6, 2023
2. Houston Texans
Original Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
New Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
With Stroud now off the board, the Texans are still faced with the decision of drafting their franchise quarterback. Anthony Richardson is a much more unique and dynamic quarterback compared to Young, but it does seem like the Texans preferred Young over Stroud prior to the draft as he’s a very accurate passer with solid intangibles. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick was with the Niners for four years prior to his Texans hiring, and we know how much the Niners’ offense loves accurate passing. This is very a good consolation prize at pick No. 2.
3. Houston Texans (from Arizona)
Original Pick: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
New Pick: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
The Texans are back up again at No. 3 after a trade with the Arizona Cardinals. Although his sack numbers are below expectations, Anderson is still the correct call here. He has been a great player halfway through the season and a perfect fit for Demeco Ryans‘ defense.
4. Indianapolis Colts
Original Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
New Pick: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Even though Richardson is out for the year, he is still the correct choice at No. 4. His raw talent and athleticism are truly unique and a match made in heaven for rookie head coach Shane Steichen. We saw the flashes of why Richardson was taken inside the top four, and with some more experience and great coaching, this pick will be a winner.
5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)
Original Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
New Pick: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
The Seahawks are up at No. 5 due to the flop season in Denver that transpired after the Russell Wilson trade. The Seahawks’ defense was near the bottom of the league and in desperate need of some youthful talent. They addressed the defensive line via free agency and took a hard-nosed corner in Witherspoon here. He has been outstanding and is a current front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
6. Arizona Cardinals (from Detroit)
Original Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
New Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
The Cardinals focused on the offensive line with Johnson, addressing a clear need. The issue? Their defensive line was also weak and they passed on an absolute game-wrecker in Carter. Johnson has been serviceable at right tackle while Carter has been the best rookie defender in the entire league, racking up 3.5 sacks and seven quarterback hurries so far.
Jalen Carter and Brandon Graham team up for another sack! pic.twitter.com/kEazV3H9jW
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) November 6, 2023
7. Las Vegas Raiders
Original Pick: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
New Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
To my understanding, the Raiders were targeting Johnson with this selection to address the right side of their offensive line. Johnson was selected one pick earlier, so the Raiders took Wilson, who has been basically invisible this season. The Raiders’ offense is a bottom-three unit this year and struggles to run the ball, so the addition of Johnson is welcomed.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Original Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
New Pick: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The Falcons realistically should’ve traded down from this pick and addressed receiver and edge rusher, but since this redraft doesn’t include any mock trades, Atlanta will stick with Robinson. He’s currently fourth on the Falcons in receptions, though his usage certainly doesn’t look like what we’d expect from a top-10 pick. With that being said, the Falcons desperately needed a game-changer on offense and Robinson is still the best available.
9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Chicago)
Original Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
New Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Eagles only traded up here since Carter was available. As noted above, we will leave the exact draft order (including trades), which still benefits the Eagles. Gonzalez is available and is exactly what the Eagles’ defense needs right now. Darius Slay and James Bradberry are aging, and it has been evident as the Eagles’ pass defense is currently 26th in the NFL. The addition of a playmaker on the outside is a great pick.
10. Chicago Bears (from Philadelphia)
Original Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
New Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
I liked the Bears’ young offensive line and the addition of guard Nate Davis via free agency. The receiving core, in my opinion, is what should be addressed. Smith-Njigba has been solid in his opportunities as a starter and showcased his ability to play in the slot. Quarterback Justin Fields having more than one receiver would’ve benefitted his game, along with taking some pressure off their offensive line with the ball being released quicker.
11. Tennessee Titans
Original Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
New Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
To make a long story short, this Titans’ offense needed just about everything aside from running back. They still love to run the ball and set up play-action passing, so a versatile offensive lineman like Skoronski is the correct selection. Skoronski has the ability to play tackle and guard. Through nine weeks, he has performed quite well at right guard.
According to @PFF, there are 22 NFL offensive linemen that have played 200+ snaps this season without a single penalty. #Titans Peter Skoronski, Daniel Brunskill, and Chris Hubbard are all on that list.
— Sam Phalen (@Sam_Phalen) October 31, 2023
12. Detroit Lions (from Arizona)
Original Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
New Pick: Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Lions did not miss with their first four selections in this draft, but there are issues with how they have utilized Gibbs. Although I understand the pick given that Gibbs is a unique running back with explosiveness, similar to the Falcons with Robinson, he is just not being utilized to justify his draft choice. Branch has been fantastic for the Lions’ defense and has stepped up with C.J. Gardner-Johnson missing significant time. He is the new selection at No. 12.
13. Green Bay Packers (from New York Jets)
Original Pick: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
New Pick: Puka Nacua, WR, BYU
Van Ness has not lived up to the hype and, quite frankly, this entire Packers team has underperformed. The Packers’ defense is still young and very talented, but they are just injured at the moment. Offensively, this roster needs some serious help. Nacua has burst onto the scene as a Cooper Kupp clone in Los Angeles and offers the exact consistency that this bottom-barrel Packers offense needs right now.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (from New England)
Original Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
New Pick:Ā Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
I was quite surprised when Porter fell out of the first round. He is long and athletic and has been a top rookie talent this season. The Steelers’ secondary was in disarray and in desperate need of some talent on the back end. Similar to his father, Joey Porter Sr., he will be a star on this Steelers defense for years to come.
15. New York Jets (from Green Bay)
Original Pick: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
New Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
The Jets must’ve thought Aaron Rodgers was some sort of wizard as they chose against addressing their weak offense and adding more to their already-loaded defense. The offensive line would’ve been the play here if Skoronski was available, but with him off the board, dynamic receiver Jordan Addison is the selection here. As stated, sometimes just getting the ball to an open receiver can help an offensive line. That’s the strategy here.
16. Washington Commanders
Original PickĀ Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
New Pick: Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
This Commanders team has been a complete letdown. They recently traded edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat, essentially accepting a defensive rebuild. Forbes was added here to help address a weak secondary, although he has been very disappointing. We’re going in a completely different direction here with LaPorta, who has been incredible this year and would be a welcomed addition in the District of Columbia.
Sam LaPorta is the first TE with 40+ receptions, 400+ receiving yards & 4+ receiving TD in his first 8 games. #OnePride @Lions @NFLResearch
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) November 6, 2023
17. New England Patriots (from Pittsburgh)
Original Pick: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
New Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
The Patriots got a gift as Gonzalez fell to them. He has already been selected in this redraft, so we will do the smart thing and select an offensive weapon in Flowers. The Patriots’ offense is stuck in the 1960s with no passing game or speed. Flowers is the perfect addition for a team looking to improve offensively.
18. Detroit Lions
Original Pick: Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
New Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
This was the one Lions pick I didn’t like, both in terms of the player and position. Campbell has been underwhelming, whereas the entire Lions’ run defense has improved without his services being needed. There isn’t a corner worthy of this selection, so we are going to take a position of need and select Kincaid. He has been overshadowed by LaPorta but is also having a good year, and the Lions need a tight end after the T.J. Hockenson trade.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original Pick: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh
New Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
Kancey has not been much help on defense and Rachaad White has lacked explosiveness and playmaking on offense. As we know, the league is changing and explosiveness matters. Gibbs is a versatile running back with great speed, which is exactly what the Bucs’ aging offense lacks.
20. Seattle Seahawks
Original Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
New Pick: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
The Seahawks took a luxury pick here with Smith-Njigba. Seattle’s offensive line is not a consistent group yet and Wright has been good on the right side. Plus, the Seahawks will need to keep Geno Smith pressure-free against some elite NFC pass rushes.
21. Los Angeles Chargers
Original Pick: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
New Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Chargers selected Johnston who has seen increased opportunities after Mike Williams suffered a season-ending knee injury. Unfortunately, he has not made the most of the scenario as Josh Palmer (when he was healthy) won the No. 2 receiver role over the rookie. The Chargers’ secondary has been carved up thus far, so some help in the secondary is needed. Banks has not been great this year, but he’s young and athletic, which is exactly what the Chargers need.
22. Miami Dolphins (selection forfeited)
Sorry, Miami. No pick for you.
23. Baltimore Ravens
Original Pick: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
New Pick: Josh Downs, WR, UNC
We’re sticking with a receiver here as the Ravens were desperate for some pass-catching help. Flowers has been a great addition to this Ravens team, but since he’s already off the board, we will go for a similar player in Downs. The UNC product can play outside and the slot, similar to Flowers. He has continued to show great playmaking abilities.
Josh Downs with the "double" top-of-route action. Hesitation with the inside leverage defender, then accelerates upfield and sells the fade. Breaks to the sideline as he parallels with the defender then extends for the grab at the sideline. Short King Downs š pic.twitter.com/ws0ZLZLYsN
— Daniel Harmsš (@InHarmsWay19) November 2, 2023
24. Minnesota Vikings
Original Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC
New Pick: De’Von Achane, RB, Texas A&M
Alexander Mattison has been okay but is clearly not the answer at running back. Achane has game-changing speed and can take the pressure off Justin Jefferson and whomever the Vikings plan to roll out at quarterback in the future.
25. New York Giants (from Jacksonville)
Original Pick: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
New Pick: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Giants are another team desperate for help just about everywhere aside from running back. They’ve already had success with one Georgia offensive tackle in Andrew Thomas, so why not take a shot there again with Jones? Evan Neal has been a disappointment and Daniel Jones has been hurried just about every play, leading to two serious injuries.
26. Buffalo Bills (from Jacksonville)
Original Pick: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
New Pick: Keeanu Benton, DT, Wisconsin
The Bills’ run defense has taken a massive step back from last season as they are currently a bottom-10 unit. Injuries and poor play always seem to find their way into the Bills’ defense, but defensive tackle Benton has been a bright spot on a weak Steelers unit. He would be a much-welcomed addition to this Bills roster looking for a Super Bowl run.
27. Dallas Cowboys
Original Pick: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan
New Pick: Marvin Mims Jr., WR, Oklahoma
The Cowboys’ defense is young and explosive, and the addition of Smith has been a disappointment. The team should have gone in a different direction. Enter, a deep-threat receiver. Mims has shown his playmaking abilities out in Denver. Contrary to the defense, the Dallas offense lacks highly explosive playmakers and Mims is the big-play threat that Dallas lacks.
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Buffalo)
Original Pick: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
New Pick: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
The Jaguars took a raw defensive end in Travon Walker with their first overall selection in 2o22, but he has yet to show any elite-level pass-rushing abilities. Jacksonville has a total of 16 sacks on the season, nine of which are from impending free agent Josh Allen. McDonald is a menace on the edge and would help the Jags elevate their pass rush in hopes of competing with the NFL’s elite.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
Original Pick: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
New Pick: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
Protect and build the team around Joe Burrow, plain and simple. Torrence is a monster on the inside who excels at run blocking, where the Bengals currently are struggling.
30. New Orleans Saints (from Denver)
Original Pick: Bryan Breese, DT, Clemson
New Pick: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State
The Saints’ offensive line has been weak this season and is in need of some help. Jones has been a bright spot for the Cleveland Browns and would be a very welcomed addition to this Saints roster. With this pick, Pro Bowler Ryan Ramczyk would move to left tackle, a spot where he has some past experience.
Dawand Jones is going to be a special player great performance against Nick Bosa yesterday #DawgPound. pic.twitter.com/wtdlaZ0PeR
— Tyler Johnson (@T_johnson_TJ) October 16, 2023
31. Philadelphia Eagles
Original Pick: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
New Pick: Tank Dell, WR, Houston
The defensive side of the ball for the Eagles is loaded and deep. On offense, though, there is one spot where the Eagles are lacking: a No. 3 receiver who can play the slot. Dell is a playmaker who handles the slot with ease and excels at turning nothing into something. In a league where scoring matters, you can never have enough explosive players on your team.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Original Pick: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
New Pick: Kobie Turner, DT, Wake Forest
We’re sticking with the defensive side of the ball here. I know wide receiver is tempting, but I cannot justify selecting yet another receiver. Plus, Rashee Rice has been a great selection. Anudike-Uzomah, on the other hand, has not flashed much and does not provide any help in run defense. Turner is the new selection as a major upgrade for a relatively weak run defense.
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