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Predicting the 2019 NFL receiving leaders

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Wide receiver may be the strongest individual position in the league right now. There is a legitimate case to be made for 18 to 20 players to be among the game’s top 10. With so many great players, it’s tough to narrow them down. Although box score statistics never truly reflect the best players in the game, it’s fun to analyze each players’ situation, and how that could help them put up big stats.

These are the players who have the best chance to be at the top of the three major statistical receiving categories: receptions, yards, touchdowns.

Total Receptions

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1. Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints

The easiest selection on the list has to be Michael Thomas, who certainly has the best chance to top the league in receptions. The 2018 king of catches is not only one of the game’s most elite young superstars, but the discrepancy between Thomas and the Saints No. 2 receiver is the largest gap in the entire league. It’s easy to see why he’ll haul in so many targets.

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2. Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers

After a rare fully healthy offseason, Keenan Allen is in the perfect position to become one of the game’s true top talents. The emergence of Mike Williams and the return of Hunter Henry will take a lot more defensive focus off of Allen. He’s freakishly versatile with the ability to play anywhere on the field. Allen’s route running ability will get him open a lot, thus leading to a healthy number of targets.

3. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers

Similarly to Thomas, the distance between Smith-Schuster and the rest of Pittsburgh’s receiving threats is enormous. Ben Roethlisberger will undoubtedly have to rely on JuJu at an alarming rate, so he should see plenty of balls his way.

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4. Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons

There’s a fair argument to be made that Julio is still the game’s best wideout. Jones ranks second in receptions since entering the league and finished fourth just last season, even with the emergence of Calvin Ridley. Why wouldn’t he continue this trend in 2019?

5. Julian Edelman – New England Patriots

Tom Brady’s favorite target will indubitably garner more looks with the absence of Rob Gronkowski in 2019. Edelman owns a catch rate of over 65% in each of the past five seasons, a figure standing much higher than average amongst wide receivers. Just by the nature of the slot position included with the departure of key veterans, expect Julian Edelman to get far more balls his way.

Receiving Yards

1. Julio Jones – Atlanta Falcons

Julio led the league in receiving by a large margin in 2018, and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. Per PFF, Jones has led the league in yards per route run in each of the past four seasons, which does a good job of predicting a receivers’ future success as well. Jones is the clear favorite here.

2. Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees and Michael Thomas essentially share a brain, it’s wild. Their connection is undeniable and as Thomas improves, his yardage numbers should, too. He’s so efficient, he’s only getting better, and he might be the next man up to be the game’s premier wideout.

3. Keenan Allen – Los Angeles Chargers

One of the most underrated players in the entire league is Allen. It’s easy to overlook the guy; he doesn’t do anything flashy or attention-grabbing, he just dominates. Allen ranked third in the aforementioned yards per route run statistic, so as long as he can stay healthy (which is a big ‘if’), he has a good chance to be at the top.

4. DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans

Many would argue that Hopkins is the best in the game right now, and for good reason. Availability is the best ability, it’s cliche but it has some truth. Since entering the league, Hopkins ranks first in percentage of snaps played among receivers. This, of course, leads to more opportunities to put up yards. He may seem low on this list for his talent, but the uprising of Will Fuller and Keke Coutee could definitely take up part of his production.

5. Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans is the most overlooked wide receiver in football. Not too long ago, the Buccaneer was consensually a top-five player at his position, and he still might be. Bruce Arians’ heavy-passing attack consists of a lot of downfield throws, where Evans specializes. Based on offensive scheme alone, Evans should expect a lot of yardage next season.

Receiving Touchdowns

1. Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs

A tight end sneaks on, where Kelce should be the favorite to bring in the most scores. The Chiefs are going to put up a lot of points, and with the questionable availability of Tyreek Hill, Kelce is going to see a ton of red zone looks. Now the clear best tight end in football, expect to see a lot of touchdown dances from Kelce.

2. Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints

Thomas has dominated this list, and to finish it off, he should be the favorite to lead wide receivers in touchdowns. With an all-time great quarterback, a knack for finding the end zone, and a lack of complementary pieces, Thomas should bring in plenty of scores. 

3. DeAndre Hopkins – Houston Texans

Hopkins can always be relied on to put up large touchdown numbers, specifically because of his contested catch ability. His strength bringing in balls in tight situations in the red zone is arguably unparalleled, and when Deshaun Watson needs a score, he’s always looking Hopkins’ way.

4. Antonio Brown – Oakland Raiders

Even in a down year for Brown, he still led the league in touchdowns a season ago. An inferior quarterback will probably lead to a dip in the statistics, but Brown is clearly still great. No one has scored more than AB since entering the league; expect that to continue.

5. JuJu Smith-Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers

Just as previously mentioned for receptions, JuJu is going to get the kitchen sink thrown at him from Big Ben, because there really isn’t much else to get excited over. Wide receiver No. 1 always has a big role in Mike Tomlin’s offense, and Smith-Schuster is good enough to continue that trend.

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