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Power Rankings: A Readjustment

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Immediately after the publication of the first round of power rankings, each of the 32 teams was re-adjusted to a standard of 48,000 total points.

As soon as the post was published, every team was subject to a slight shift based on the number 48,000, which will represent the total number of points in ELO throughout the season. Some teams experienced massive drops.

For example, the Steelers lost 101 points in the readjustment based on their 16th place finish in the first power ranking. The only team to improve by 100 points was the Cleveland Browns who similarly jumped from a subpar ELO of 1431 to an impressive ELO of 1535 based on their 13th place finish in the power rankings.

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The upper echelon team such as the Patriots, Chiefs, and Rams suffered minor losses in ELO rating due to the correction factor of the new ELO ratings. Many of the worst teams in the NFL such as the Cardinals, Jets, and 49ers moved up slightly based on the adjusted ELO ratings.

Methodology:

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New England was placed with a maximum ELO rating of 1655 points. Each team below New England had 10 points subtracted from their position. For example, the Saints, who finished three positions lower the New England, had 30 points subtracted from 1655 and were left with an ELO of 1625, 39 points lower than their original power rankings value. This active readjustment of the teams serves to put the teams on a relatively equal level heading into free agency. Since this readjustment, each team has moved up or down based on free agency and any trades.

Each team was originally placed in a 10-point interval in order to ensure that 48,000 total points were up for grabs in the season. While the adjustment ELO ratings may not be the most accurate depiction of the talent disparity in the NFL, the rankings have been subsequently adjusted based on team transactions. Arizona, for example, has already dropped to 23 points because of general ineptitude. Most teams have stayed relatively close to their original value, but some have been active in free agency or passive in free agency, leading to a dramatically changed value.

Remember, the power rankings are pretty pointless and reflect on more so the perceived ability of the teams especially in the off-season. The power ranking should improve dramatically once football is actually being played in September. As of now, many ups and downs in the power rankings will be based on the perceived effective a player more so than their actual on-field effect which will take place in the fall. The addition of Antonio Brown both serves as an addition of a head case but the addition of one of the best receivers in football, so Oakland ELO rating was adjusted appropriately. Pre-draft and post-draft power rankings will be published and each team will look to not tank their season in the off-season.

Team Original ELO Readjusted ELO Difference
New England 1709 1655 -54
Kansas City 1651 1645 -6
LA Rams 1645 1635 -10
New Orleans 1664 1625 -39
Chicago 1631 1615 -16
LA Chargers 1626 1605 -21
Philadelphia 1620 1595 -25
Dallas 1567 1585 18
Baltimore 1603 1575 -28
Indianapolis 1589 1565 -24
Houston 1521 1555 34
Seattle 1596 1545 -51
Cleveland 1431 1535 104
Minnesota 1555 1525 -30
Tennessee 1526 1515 -11
Pittsburgh 1606 1505 -101
Atlanta 1528 1495 -33
Miami 1370 1485 115
Green Bay 1430 1475 45
Detroit 1483 1465 -18

 

Washington 1409 1455 46
Carolina 1527 1445 -82
Buffalo 1420 1435 15
Tampa Bay 1415 1425 10
Jacksonville 1430 1415 -15
Cincinnati 1390 1405 15
San Francisco 1381 1395 14
NY Jets 1325 1385 60
NY Giants 1421 1375 -46
Denver 1421 1365 -56
Oakland 1356 1355 -1
Arizona 1323 1345 22
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