We’re midway through the month of January, which means it’s time to start putting together our mock drafts. While we don’t know how free agency will unfold and impact the draft, we do know which teams have glaring needs at various positions.
Here, Andersen runs through the opening round of the draft in his first mock of the year.
This mock draft will not have any trades. Picks No. 25 through 32 are unclaimed and therefore will be projected based on playoff seeding.
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No. 1: Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams, QB, University of Southern California
The Bears presumably only hold on to the No. 1 pick if they trade Justin Fields. Given that trades aren’t allowed in this mock, let’s assume they move Fields and keep the top selection. Williams, a generational quarterback prospect, fills the void under center.
No. 2: Washington Commanders select Drake Maye, QB, University of North Carolina
From UNC to the DMV. Maye takes over for Sam Howell once again, this time after being selected second overall. This move gives Washington’s next head coach a major playmaker to lead an offense that has solid weapons at the skill positions, plus an intelligent coordinator in Eric Bieniemy.
Read our scouting report on Drake Maye:
No. 3: New England Patriots select Jayden Daniels, QB, Louisiana State University
This pick likely wouldn’t have happened with Bill Belichick at the helm. The Patriots’ new leadership could follow a similar approach as their old commander, but once that clock starts to count down, it’ll be hard to pass on Daniels. That’s especially true given how awful the Patriots’ quarterback play was in 2023.
Read our scouting report on Jayden Daniels:
No. 4: Arizona Cardinals select Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Harrison might be the top prospect in this entire draft class, so the Cardinals are very fortunate to get him at No. 4 overall. Kyler Murray looked very good when healthy in 2023, so getting him a true No. 1 receiver feels like the only logical option here. With that said, if Harrison is off the board by this selection, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Arizona trade down or strengthen its horrendous run defense.
Read our scouting report on Marvin Harrison Jr.:
No. 5: Los Angeles Chargers select Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
McKinstry is widely viewed as the top cornerback in the draft. While Los Angeles has plenty of needs on offense, defense should be the top priority here. The Alabama star allowed just 19 catches, one touchdown, and a 73.1 passer rating while earning an 88.8 PFF grade in 2023.
No. 6: New York Giants select Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Giants have plenty of needs, so it’s possible they choose to trade down and acquire multiple picks. In this mock, there are no trades allowed. Alt might just be the best player available, and he fits an area of need for New York: the offensive line.
No. 7: Tennessee Titans select Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
It looks increasingly likely that Alt and Fashanu are taken with back-to-back picks. The Titans, like New York, have plenty of needs but can’t afford to pass on Fashanu, who is the best player available and has Pro Bowl potential. He was terrific at Penn State, allowing zero quarterback hits over the course of 722 offensive snaps in 2023.
Read our scouting report on Olu Fashanu:
No. 8: Atlanta Falcons select Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Atlanta desperately needs a quarterback, but there wasn’t a perfect fit here at No. 8 overall. Instead, they pivot to Turner, who might be the best pass rusher in the draft. The Falcons’ defense was sneaky good in 2023, and adding someone like Turner will truly elevate this unit to the next level.
No. 9: Chicago Bears select Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Bears spent their top pick on Williams and Harrison is off the board. Therefore, targeting a cornerback here makes perfect sense, especially given that the Bears have recently made a commitment to upgrading the position. In 2023, DeJean allowed zero touchdowns and a 37.8 passer rating while intercepting two passes. He owns PFF grades over 88.7 and 77.4 over the last two seasons, too.
No. 10: New York Jets select Malik Nabers, WR, Louisiana State University
Nabers falling to No. 10 is a surprise. If that does happen in the real draft, the Jets will surely snatch him up. The LSU standout will join Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson as young stars in Aaron Rodgers‘ offense next season. New York already has a great defense, so adding Nabers and getting Rodgers back from injury could be enough for the Jets to make the playoffs.
Read our scouting report on Malik Nabers:
No. 11: Minnesota Vikings select Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Arnold gives the Vikings a major boost on defense. He played 205 snaps in the slot this past season, boasting his defensive versatility. Furthermore, while he did surrender two touchdowns, he also picked off five passes and held opposing quarterbacks to a 50.7 passer rating. He’s also impressive against the run, posting a PFF run defense grade of 90.5.
No. 12: Denver Broncos select Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
The Broncos are trying to build something special on defense. While they were unable to achieve greatness in 2023, adding Newton gives Denver someone who can thrive in both pass and run defense. He tallied a 91.5 PFF grade two seasons ago and has registered 12 sacks over his last 25 games.
No. 13: Las Vegas Raiders select JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Lathan has been a beacon of consistency through his last three seasons at Alabama, registering a 75.0+ PFF grade every year. He’s very strong in both run and pass blocking, and he’s surrendered just two sacks over his last 36 games. Vegas gets a key reinforcement for Josh Jacobs and whoever earns the quarterback job in 2024.
No. 14: New Orleans Saints select Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Fuaga is a fantastic run blocker and has looked solid in pass protection, too. The physical right tackle earned an 87.5 PFF grade in 2023 and hasn’t allowed a sack over his last 28 games. Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara can breathe a sigh of relief with offensive line reinforcements on the way.
Read our scouting report on Taliese Fuaga:
No. 15: Indianapolis Colts select Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Verse has flourished into a real star, registering 20 sacks over his last 25 games in college. The FSU product has played solid all around, but he’s particularly excellent in pass-rush scenarios, earning a 90.5 pass rush grade from PFF. An edge rusher might not be Indianapolis’ biggest need, but they would certainly benefit from an upgrade at the position.
Read our scouting report on Jared Verse:
No. 16: Seattle Seahawks select Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
Fautanu boasts impressive technique, allowing him to excel in all phases of the game, especially pass protection. He’s never earned a PFF grade above 80.0 but was a beacon of consistency at Washington, playing 993 snaps over 15 games in 2023. He spent most of his collegiate career at left tackle but does have some experience at guard, which could boost his draft stock.
Read our scouting report on Troy Fautanu:
No. 17: Jacksonville Jaguars select Laiatu Latu, EDGE, University of California Los Angeles
To put it simply, Latu was exceptional in 2023. He registered 15 sacks and earned a 96.3 PFF grade, anchoring the UCLA defense even when playing against strong opponents. He could be a fringe top-five pick if not for his lengthy injury history, which includes a medical retirement from 2021.
Read our scouting report on Laiatu Latu:
No. 18: Cincinnati Bengals select Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Bowers deserves to be a top-10 pick, but he slid to the back half of the first round based on how the draft board fell into place (largely due to an absence of trades). The Bengals could have the NFL’s best offense if they add Browers, re-sign Tee Higgins, and get Joe Burrow fully healthy.
No. 19: Los Angeles Rams select Bralen Trice, EDGE, Washington
Trice is one of several second-tier edge rushers in this year’s draft. The Washington prospect is a strong defender in all phases of the game, but he has particularly impressed in pass defense. He has posted an 87.0+ PFF grade in each of his last two seasons, adding 17 sacks through 28 games during that span.
Read our scouting report on Bralen Trice:
No. 20: Pittsburgh Steelers select Kalen King, CB, Penn State
Cornerback isn’t the Steelers’ biggest area of need, but they would benefit from adding someone to play alongside last year’s first-round pick and defensive success story, Joey Porter Jr. Both are Penn State products, and King has a chance to continue his playing career in Pennsylvania just like Porter did.
No. 21: Miami Dolphins select Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Robinson is a terrific pass rusher who has showcased impressive explosiveness and speed. He posted a 90.0+ PFF grade in each of his last two seasons, adding 52 quarterback hurries between 2022 and 2023. There exists a scenario in which Robinson is the most impactful edge rusher from this draft class.
No. 22: Philadelphia Eagles select Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Eagles are looking for a deep threat and might just hit the jackpot with Odunze. This past season, the Washington standout was arguably the best collegiate receiver in terms of contested catches (20) and deep catches (23), as defined by PFF. He was also excellent against man coverage, dropped just 3.2 percent of passes, and finished with an 89.3 PFF grade in 2023.
Read our scouting report on Rome Odunze:
No. 23: Houston Texans select Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama
Houston hit the jackpot last year by drafting Will Anderson Jr., and now they’ll add to their improving defensive line with Braswell. The Alabama prospect posted an 87.9 pass-rush grade in 2023 (via PFF), posting 13 sacks and 33 hurries.
No. 24: Dallas Cowboys select Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Barton gives the Cowboys a talented lineman who could become a staple in the trenches for years to come. He has extensive experience at left tackle, allowing zero hits over his last two seasons. He has showcased an ability to thrive in both run and pass blocking scenarios, which is great for a Dallas offense that plays well in both aspects.
Read our scouting report on Graham Barton:
No. 25: Green Bay Packers select Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
Mims is a monster of a human being, checking in at 6-foot-7 and 340 pounds. His talent in the trenches matches his large frame. The Georgia prospect didn’t allow a sack through 30 games over his last three seasons, and he surrendered just seven hurries during that span. Solid in run and pass blocking, Mims projects as a right tackle. For now, his positional versatility remains unknown.
No. 26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
The Buccaneers could lose Mike Evans this offseason, and while he’s irreplaceable, Tampa Bay could do a lot worse than Coleman. The FSU prospect is a physical playmaker who finished 2023 with 10 contested catches and 11 touchdowns.
No. 27: Arizona Cardinals select Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Wiggins was great in coverage this past season, allowing just one touchdown and a 44.4 passer rating. After the Cardinals took a receiver earlier, they would benefit from adding a defensive standout with the 21st pick.
No. 28: Kansas City Chiefs select Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Louisiana State
Outside of Rashee Rice, no Chiefs receiver lived up to expectations in 2023. Kansas City’s passing game remained solid thanks to the heroics of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but they could truly elevate their offensive by adding someone like Thomas. He averaged 17.3 yards per reception in 2023 and ranked third among wide receivers with 15 deep catches, as defined by PFF.
No. 29: Buffalo Bills select Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Buffalo could have added a wide receiver here, but Morgan was simply too tempting. He’s capable of excellent in both pass and run blocking, allowing just three sacks over his last two seasons (1,457 snaps). It’s worth noting that the Arizona prospect finished with a PFF grade of 82.0+ in both 2022 and 2023.
No. 30: Detroit Lions select Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
There may be more top quarterback prospects than there are teams desperate for a new signal-caller. Penix might not fall this far in the real draft, but if he does, Detroit should consider selecting him. Jared Goff won’t be benched immediately, but it’s still fair to question whether he’s the Lions’ long-term answer at quarterback. Penix could get the Jordan Love treatment and wait in the wings for a few years while Goff finishes his tenure in Detroit.
No. 31: San Francisco 49ers select Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia
As good as the 49ers played in 2023, their secondary was uninspiring, especially towards the end of the season. Adding a cornerback is imperative, and San Francisco can get a major boost from someone like Lassiter. The Georgia defensive back is coming off a big year in which he allowed zero touchdowns and held opposing quarterbacks to a 48.7 passer rating.
No. 32: Baltimore Ravens select Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Mitchell has been excellent in each of the last two seasons, registering 92.5 and 91.4 PFF grades. He surrendered just 27 catches, zero touchdowns, and a 51.1 passer rating in 2023. There are some concerns that he hasn’t played against great competition, but his résumé at Toledo is enough to earn him a late-round selection.
Read our scouting report on Quinyon Mitchell:
Lingering Thoughts From Pickard’s 2024 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
- It’s unlikely that we see three quarterbacks in the first three picks, then none until No. 28 overall. This was the product of no trades, no quarterback-needy teams from picks No. 4 to 7, and plenty of “steals” available from picks No. 8 to 29. Once we start creating trades in future mocks, we can expect Bo Nix or J.J. McCarthy (or both) to sneak into the first round. Penix will probably go higher than 30th, too.
- Bowers sliding to No. 18 feels dirty, but the teams in need of a tight end from picks No. 13 to 17 felt like they had bigger priorities or found better steals at a different position. With that said, we’d be stunned if Bowers falls to the back half of the first round in April.
- The top of the tackle position is an underrated storyline. Will teams prefer Alt or Fashanu? Either way, both deserve to be top-10 picks.
- Wide receivers were selected a little later than expected. That all started with Harrison, who might be the best player in this draft but fell to No. 4 because of the early run on quarterbacks. This triggered a domino effect that saw Nabers, Odunze, and Coleman all go later than expected.
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