NFL Week 4 Betting Advice: Spreads to Bet, Avoid

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Every week billions of dollars are wagered on the NFL. The most popular type of bet is the spread. Each week there are a few games with an appealing spread and others with an ugly spread. To help bettors figure out which spreads they should bet on and which to avoid, two of our NFL writers, Mike Fanelli and Dale Money, give their take on every spread for each of this weekend’s games.

To recap, last week, Mike finished with a 5-10 record while Dale finished 6-9. For the year, Mike is 14-16 while Dale is 15-15. Let’s take a look at their picks for Week 4.

Spreads are provided by Jazz Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Be sure to check out our NFL betting advice article each week.

The Team to Bet

Mike: Buffalo Bills -17

After their upset defeat against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1, the Bills have won their past two games by a combined 78-21 score. Furthermore, in their final three regular-season games in 2020, the Bills won each by 29 or more points. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans have proven to be a tough team to beat this season. After their upset victory in Week 1 over the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans covered the 12 point spread against the Cleveland Brown. However, last week, they were blown out of the water by the Carolina Panthers by 15 points. With Davis Mills making his second career start, the Bills should have no trouble making his life miserable. Expect them to come away with a three touchdown victory.

Dale: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5

The Chargers are coming off an eye-opening upset win last week against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Both the offense and defense were crucial in the Chargers’ win. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders won a hard-fought overtime game against the Miami Dolphins last week, coming back from an early 14-0 deficit. They currently lead the AFC West division but have struggled to cover the spread this season. Last week, they failed to cover the eight-point spread against the Dolphins. While this game should be a close battle, the Chargers have proven to be legit contenders while the Raiders haven’t. Take the Chargers minus the points.

The Team to Avoid

Mike: Green Bay Packers -6.5

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In Week 1, the Packers got destroyed by the New Orleans Saints, losing 38-3. However, the Packers covered the spread in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions. Then they won as underdogs last week against the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers have lost two straight games after their upset victory over the Bills in Week 1. However, the betting market is overreacting to their upset defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The Packers will start their third-string left tackle, Yosuah Nijman, against a healthy T.J. Watt and the dominant Pittsburgh defense tomorrow. Furthermore, the Packers will be without two more starters as Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin King will miss the game with injuries. While the Packers will win this game, they won’t cover the near touchdown spread.

Dale: Arizona Cardinals +4.5

Last week, the Arizona Cardinals got a big boost from James Conner in their win over the Jaguars. After their win last week, they remain atop the NFC West division with the Los Angeles Rams. However, the Rams have been unstoppable on offense this season, in part thanks to Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has been near unstoppable himself this season. This matchup should be a high-scoring contest. However, the Cardinals might be without two of their starting offensive linemen in Kelvin Beachum and Justin Pugh. When facing Aaron Donald, you need your offensive line to be at 100 percent. How much will this impact Murray? Bettors would be wise to avoid backing the Cardinals.

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