After 35 points-paying races over a 40-plus week span, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season comes to a close this Sunday. At Phoenix Raceway, four drivers are set to duel for stock car racing’s top prize in a 312 lap dogfight in the desert. The battle within the battle for this race is two teams having two drivers in the mix. For Joe Gibbs Racing, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr look to give the former three-time Super Bowl-winning head coach his sixth Cup Series title as an owner. It would be the second in the ‘Playoff-Era’ for the team if one of the two can bring it home.
In the other corner, you have Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, along with defending Cup Series Champion Chase Elliott. Rick Hendrick‘s squad earlier this year broke the all-time record for most wins by a team. Passing up the legendary Petty Enterprises at the Coca-Cola 600. Surely Mr. H would be pleased with win No. 280 and Championship No. 14 to end off a monster year for the team.
Despite last years championship lacking in the excitement department, Phoenix has historically been a good track. Here’s to hoping it can send the Gen-6 Cup car out with a bang. Now for the in-depth breakdown for the NASCAR Cup Series title combatants.
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NASCAR Cup Series Final Four
No. 9 Chase Elliott- Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Stats: Two Wins, 20 Top 10s, 14 Top 5s, 858 Laps Led, Average Finish of 11.54
The son of ‘Awesome Bill from Dawsonville’ is back in the Final Four for the second year in a row. Despite most of his stats being down from a season ago, Elliott actually is well on track to put up his best average finish for his career. His playoffs were of course highlighted by his feud with Kevin Harvick. The pair cost each other wins at Bristol, then Elliott ended Harvick’s season at the Roval via the Force.
Outside of those instances, the defending champion has been tame this postseason. Elliott is averaging a 13th in these last nine races with no wins and four finishes outside the top 15. Another worrying statistic entering Sunday is that his last win on an oval will be a year ago this Monday. If there is any solace in that statistic, that win was at Phoenix.
No. 19 Martin Truex Jr- Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Stats: Four Wins, 19 Top 10s, 12 Top 5s, 793 Laps Led, Average Finish of 12.29
Truex feels like a major sleeper entering this weekend. Larson, Elliott, and Hamlin all seem to be getting most of the attention which is not unwarranted by any means. Truex however has been excellent this season, both regular and post. His only bad stretch in the latter was a string of races from Talledega to Texas, scoring outside the top 20 in all three races. Outside of that, Truex has nearly half of his Top 5, and a third of his Top 10 production in the postseason.
Safe to say Truex has been excellent these last two months. Coming to a track where you won earlier in the year as well has to be a monumental confidence booster for this No. 19 team. The other three drivers in his way may be getting most of the limelight, but don’t forget about the 2017 Champion now. Would also have to wonder if a win this weekend will make up for the ridicule he got for what happened the year after with Joey Logano.
No. 5 Kyle Larson- Hendrick Motorsports
2021 Stats: Nine Wins, 25 Top 10s, 19 Top 5s, 2474 Laps Led, Average Finish of 9.31
To put the mind-numbing numbers that Larson has put up into historical context, here are some breakdowns. A win this weekend would make Larson the first driver to hit double digits since Jimmie Johnson in 2007. He currently is shattering the previous record for most laps lead in a 36 race season. Additionally, Larson has the opportunity to lead more laps than Jeff Gordon did in any season of his career, needing 127 on Sunday. Finally, Larson became the first driver with multiple three-race win streaks since Dale Earnhardt Sr in 1987. Truly a season for the ages in every way.
Larson has more or less been the best driver in NASCAR from start to finish. Unlike Harvick last year, he did not choke on the path to Phoenix, making it with the help of a video game number of playoff points. This after numerous problems have kept him from the Round of 8, let alone the Championship Race in years past. With his move to Hendrick and All-Star pairing with crew chief Cliff Daniels, Larson is only one race away from a NASCAR title.
To put things even further in perspective, Larson’s Trophy Room must be getting full from this year alone. From the beginning of the year from now, he has won the following marque races in American Motorsports. In NASCAR alone this year, Larson took home the Coca-Cola 600, All-Star Race, and Bristol Night Race. Then on dirt, he took home the Chili Bowl, one of two Kings Royals, and the granddaddy of them all, the Knoxville Nationals. Adding a Cup Championship to an already loaded resume would put Larson in the rarest of air.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin- Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Stats: Two Wins, 24 Top 10s, 18 Top 5s, 1502 Laps Led, Average Finish of 8.60
As of the time this goes live, Hamlin is by a wide margin is the winningest active driver in NASCAR without a Cup Series Title. You would have to go back to Ryan Newman, who trails Hamlin by 28 wins. A good comparison for Hamlin historically is the great Mark Martin. Martin was undoubtedly an all-time great by any metric you want to use, but a Cup title always eluded him.
The point here regarding Hamlin however is that he obviously is not getting any younger. To say he is closer to the beginning than the end at 40-years-old would be simply untruthful. Seeing as he is in the midst of a career year taking wins out of the equation, could this be Hamlin’s last real shot at a title? Not that not having one hurts his all-time resume any. Retiring with at least three Daytona 500s and likely 50-plus wins gets him into the hall easily. Having one would only help him, however.
As it relates to this weekend, Phoenix is one of Hamlin’s eight best tracks in terms of average finish, having two wins as well. Like his teammate Truex as well, Hamlin also has been close to automatic this postseason. How do seven Top 10s, five Top 5s, and two wins sound? Plus if he can turn his frustrations from Martinsville into motivation this weekend, Hamlin will be a force to be reckoned with.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Pick: Kyle Larson
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