Always a delight when your DFS planning for the day includes a long look at the weather forecast around baseball. The good news is that it appears the worst is behind us. The Phillies/Reds and White Sox/Indians tilts were both postponed this afternoon, but it appears the rest for tonight’s eight-game slate will go off as planned.
Let’s fire up the ol’ prediction machine and see if we can’t spit out a lineup to make some money tonight. As always, we’ll go bargain shopping, and then include the studs afterwards. I’ll list those guys at the bottom.
You can find our past DFS plays to see how we are doing here.
***All prices listed are from DraftKings***
The Minnesota Twins are in Baltimore and get to see up the tee against Matt Harvey on three days’ rest, which just seems unfair. Harvey has given up five earned runs in every one of his last four starts and is rocking a 6.84 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the season, and will be the first bull out of the gate for the Orioles in a bullpen game. It doesn’t get much easier for the Birds from there as Baltimore ranks 20th in the majors with a 4.50 ERA in relief. Look for plenty of runs in this game.
And by plenty of runs, I mean plenty to go around for both teams. The contrarian stack here is the Baltimore Orioles against Randy Dobnak of the Twins. Dobnak has tossed 26.1 innings in 2021 and strolls to the bump with a 6.49 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. The total for this game is resting at 10 runs between the two teams and I think that gets obliterated.
Couldn’t help but notice when checking the weather, they are calling for the wind to be blowing out to left field in Baltimore. Whether you stack or not, with these two pitchers on the mound, it would be foolish to not play some big boppers in your normal lineups.
Value on the Hill
Alek Manoah – vs. Miami ($8,200)
Pitching today is a bit of a crapshoot after Walker Buehler and we’re going hunting for values so we can spend up on hitters. Manoah has a small sample size to eyeball, but the Marlins aren’t exactly world-beaters with the lumber. In his lone start this season on May 27, Manoah took it to the Yankees for six innings, yielding a pair of hits, two walks and zero runs. That’s good enough for the price against Miami.
Keep an eye on weather for this one. It’s unlikely to be rained out, but there’s a chance at a delay which always complicates matters for a starting pitcher. That said, I’m starting him with confidence.
Shane McClanahan – at New York Yankees ($7,600)
McClanahan has yet to toss more than 5.1 innings in a game, but it’s not because he has not pitched well… quite the opposite. The Rays are handling their fourth-overall prospect with kid gloves. Regardless, he has shown excellent efficiency, including his last start out against the Royals when he needed just 63 pitches to get through five. In six starts overall, the southpaw is 2-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He’s sat down 32 hitters in 27.1 innings via strikeout.
Value in the Field
Josh Harrison, 2B – at Atlanta ($3,000)
The veteran infielder is quietly slashing a respectable .285/.357/.411 (.768 OPS for those of you who are math-ing) while adding four dingers and a couple stolen bases on the season. With the wind in Atlanta blowing in, it is going to favor the guys who had slap base-knocks as opposed to flyballs. Harrison should be able to get on base a couple times in this game against Braves’ starter Drew Smyly.
Pivot: Taylor Walls at Yankees
Trevor Larnach, ($2,400) or Kyle Garlick ($2,800), OF – at Baltimore
Sticking with the theme of the game mentioned in the stacks section, expect there to be runs upon runs in this game. Larnach had his foot in a boot two days ago but was listed as simply day-to-day. If his bat is in the lineup, he’s unbelievable value at this price point and instantly becomes a home run threat against Harvey and the Orioles’ bullpen.
It’s the game with teammate Garlick. He’s almost exclusively a pull-hitter, with four doubles and two of his four bombs landing in the left field seats. As stated earlier, that’s the direction the wind will be blowing. Garlick is the more likely player to start so the tendency should be to plug him in and pivot to Larnach if there’s a change. Oh, also Garlick went yardly against the same team just last night.
Carlos Correa, SS – vs. Boston ($4,200)
The Houston slugger has been picking up the pace recently at the plate and is a safe bet to slot in at short against Nick Pivetta tonight. While $4,200 is not exactly considered bargain-basement pricing, it is great value for Correa in this matchup. And with the money saved on starting pitching, the luxury of spending high on batters is there. In his last 14 days, he’s hitting .333 with two longballs, nine runs, nine RBI, and 13 walks. He’s also catching up with fastballs, as his hard-hit rate against the pitch is nearly 50 percent on the season. Pivetta is a fan of the fastball and we are fans of Correa at home.
Best of luck on all of your lineups tonight. The value picks here could really pay off in tournament plays. Spend wisely on pitching upside, and you’re able to make it rain on your hitters so they can make it rain moonshots.
Follow Sam Schneider on Twitter @BuyAndSellYou
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