Ladies and gentlemen welcome back to another season of my baseball DFS content. I’m super thrilled a new season has begun, and we can get back to making money while watching the game we love. Today, I’m going to talk about a few players and spots I’m looking to exploit in hopes of cashing in big. I don’t want to see anything other than flame emojis next to each player in my lineup. Let’s get to it and dissect the slate starting at 6:40 PM EDT. The pricing listed is from DraftKings.
Hurlers
Top tier
Alek Manoah ($10,200 DK)
We can talk about Manoah’s emergence last season, or we can talk about his dominance during spring training. In his first big league action last year, Manoah tossed 111.2 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 127 strikeouts, and 1.05 WHIP. That’s elite-level productivity for a rookie pitching in a terrifying AL East. Manoah pitched 14 innings during the spring with only one earned run allowed and 12 strikeouts. The New York Yankees won’t be an easy lineup to navigate through, but he’s the top pitcher on the slate from pure stuff and potential standpoint.
Mid-tier
Ranger Suarez ($8,900 DK)
Suarez came out of nowhere last season. He was filthy. Relying primarily on three pitches – a 93 MPH sinker, 85 MPH changeup, and 93.7 MPH four-seam fastball, Suarez did a tremendous job limiting significant damage last year. In 106 innings tossed, he only allowed four home runs with a 1.36 ERA, 2.6 percent barrel rate, and 31.1 percent hard-hit rate.
The New York Mets will run out some dangerous right-handed batters in their lineup, featuring Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, and Francisco Lindor. However, his sinker and changeup play well against righties. I think he can do enough damage control and get through five or more innings today.
Value tier
Dylan Bundy ($5,600 DK)
Bundy has always shown flashes of excellence. In 2020, he seemingly put it all together and finished with a 3.29 ERA, and 72 strikeouts in 65.2 innings pitched. Not too shabby. However, he fell off the wagon entirely last year, allowing a 6.06 ERA and losing a rotation spot with the Los Angeles Angels. There’s a reason he’s this cheap in salary. Maybe he can rediscover some magic with a new team in the Minnesota Twins. I’m taking he can find his rhythm and tap into the 27 percent strikeout rate we saw in 2020.
Boppers
OF – Adam Duvall ($4,100 DK)
Duvall has come out slow to start the season, batting only .143 through four games. Nonetheless, his season total prop markets before the season were insanely high, and he hit 38 dingers between Miami and Atlanta last season. I‘m predicting Duvall to hit his first bomb of the season today. He’ll face off against left-handed pitcher Josh Rogers of the Washington Nationals. Nearly every projection system has Rogers nearing a two or high HR/9 with an ERA of 5.42 or higher this year.
OF – Marcell Ozuna ($3,800 DK)
Ozuna gets the same juicy matchup as Duvall. Say what you want about Ozuna, the person, but Ozuna, the hitter, can rake, especially against southpaws. Ozuna has a 129 wRC+ and .361 wOBA with a hard-hit rate of over 42 percent against lefties throughout his career. Anything under $4,000 is too cheap. I’ll plug him in.
Value tier
3B – Bryson Stott ($2,100 DK)
Finding value options for DFS is essential. Stott is underpriced because the community as a collective doesn’t understand how good he is yet. He’s displayed excellent plate discipline with the ability to hit line drives and get on-base throughout the minors. However, since he’s only played in two major league games, he’s close to the bare minimum salary.
Taijuan Walker can cause issues for opponents, but his strikeout rate isn’t ridiculously high, only 22.3 percent last season. I think Stott can put the bat on the ball enough to return value for us at this price.
Stack ‘Em Up
Cash games – Atlanta Braves vs. Josh Rogers
Contrarian – Miami Marlins vs Michael Lorenzen
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