It’s a thirsty Thursday in the MLB DFS universe. There are plenty of mouth-watering bargains on tonight’s main slate (beginning at 7:05pm EDT) to wet your whistle and quench your wallet’s thirst for cold, hard cash. It’s time to see if we can keep the success rolling and build our bankrolls early in the season.
As usual, we are focusing on value plays here, although there is a “must start” at the top of the list. The player prices for tonight’s slate run fairly close together, so creating a well-balanced lineup is an attainable goal. The key is choosing the players that your opponents might be looking past. Find the hot hands, a few guys that are due, and (as always) a few big guns to blow your cash on. After some of my favorite plays for the day, I’ll list a few of those heavy hitters at the end in the “Stud Finder”. It’s time to dump all the pieces out of that cardboard box and see if we can put this puzzle together.
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***All prices listed are DraftKings***
Value on the Hill
Walker Buehler – vs Cincinnati ($9,700)
This is not so much a “value pick” as a “must start”. Buehler in the Los Angeles home opener against a mediocre Reds lineup should command more capital than this. On one hand, the goal is often to choose players than will not be drafted by many of your opponents. In this case, however, Buehler is likely to be rostered by a lot of people, and you do not want to set yourself back by not keeping pace.
The Lexington, KY native started 33 games in 2021, finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young award voting. He won 16 games and had a 9.2 K/9 average. In his first start this season in Colorado, the 27-year-old fanned five Rockies on a reasonably efficient 78 pitches over five innings in picking up his first win. Tonight, with the home crowd behind him in the first game at Chavez Ravine in 2022, Buehler gets a Cincinnati team that is striking out on nearly 31 percent of their at bats. Even if he only goes six innings as he continues to stretch out, double-digit strikeouts and a W are both slam dunks.
Zack Greinke – vs Detroit ($6,800)
In a crowded field of average starting pitchers for tonight’s slate, take the savvy veteran. Greinke only had one strikeout in his first outing, but he still came away with a win over arguably the most potent offense thus far against Cleveland. He allowed just one earned run in the victory, two games before the Guardians erupted for 44 runs in four contests. The 38-year-old is still reliable on the mound and has a capable offense to support him. Greinke won 11 games last season and should have no problem with a Tigers lineup that has only managed 21 runs in six games in 2022.
Value in the Field
Gavin Lux, 2B/OF – vs Cincinnati ($2,900)
Lux is an absolute steal at this price. The Reds are expected to come in planning for a bullpen game. Although their relievers have been sound thus far, most are young and unproven. They will likely cycle through their entire core of relief guys, and may even end up throwing a position player like Kyle Farmer onto the mound as the Dodgers continually tee off. While a Los Angeles-heavy stack in tonight’s slate is absolutely worth playing, the price is not always right. It is for Lux, though, who comes in scorching with a .353/.400/.588 triple slash (that’s a .988 OPS for you math wizards out there). Lux could easily have a 3-for-5 night, placing at least one in the alley, while scoring twice and driving in a couple runs if he continues to swing a hot bat.
C.J. Cron, 1B – vs Chicago Cubs ($4,500)
Cron is sizzling to start the season, as the late-bloomer is batting .300 to kick off 2022. Two of his six hits have gone over the fence, he has scored four times and driven in five more. It’s certainly early in the season, but Cron’s career .799 OPS (1.033 thus far in 2022) is hard to ignore. Many of the Coors field batting bonuses have been debunked over the last few years, but it cannot be denied that it is a hitter’s park, and as long as Cron stays healthy, he’s a DFS darling anytime his cost sits below $4,800. He gets the Cubs’ Justin Steele tonight. Steele has the ability to strike out a lot of batters, but is susceptible to walks. Cron should have several opportunities to drive in runs with two out.
Nico Hoerner, SS – at Colorado ($3,500)
If you’re sensing a theme here, you’re correct. I fully expect a slugfest between the Cubs and Rockies this evening. Well, maybe not a slugfest so much as a runs-fest. You’ll find at least two more names from this game in the ‘Stud Finder’ below, as we fill out our lineups. In truth, one could easily just choose players from this game, a few Dodgers, and a couple Yankees and have a good chance to finish in the money. That said, the goal is to win with players that aren’t being widely used.
Hoerner is not going to hit a home run tonight. But he does face a pitcher in Kyle Freeland who coughed up five hits and five runs in his first outing, tossing 74 pitchers just to labor through 3.2 innings. He is a career .500 pitcher with an ERA over 4.00, and (most importantly for Hoerner) a career WHIP of 1.410. As I said, the Cub is not going to put the ball over the fence, but he is exactly the type of hitter that has plagued Freeland throughout his career. Expect a multi-hit day from Hoerner.
Stud Finder: Kris Bryant (OF – CHC), George Springer (OF – TOR), Austin Riley (3B – ATL), Eric Haase (C – DET), Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC), Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
Everyone will have a guy like Buehler in their lineup tonight, particularly on a subpar pitching day. Keep up with those points, and choose some lesser-used players to get a leg up on the competition. When in doubt, find that game that’s got a huge total and load up on the big swingers. Don’t forget to do a last-minute check of your lineups to be sure everyone is in. Oh, and if Vlad plays, get him in there. Good luck tonight.
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