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MLB Best Bets: May 29, 2024

MLB Best Bets - Padres Pitcher Yu Darvish
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The MLB season rolls on as we get ready to turn our calendars to June.

Wednesday’s MLB slate features plenty of games for your viewing and betting pleasure. We have you covered with our three favorite prop bets to bolster your wallet this evening.

Click here for betting odds. Please gamble responsibly. Have a problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Best Bet No. 1: Red Sox vs. Orioles UNDER 0.5 First Inning Runs (-145)

We kick off our best bets with a NRFI between two divisional foes. The Orioles mauled the Red Sox on Monday (no runs in the first inning), but Boston evened the series at one apiece on Tuesday evening (five runs in the first inning). Both clubs are deploying top arms as they look to win the series on Wednesday night.

The Orioles will send Corbin Burnes to the mound; he’s looked very good in his first year with the Orioles. Although his first-inning ERA is higher than his ERA in any other inning (minimum two innings), he hasn’t allowed a run in the first inning since April 14.

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Boston’s starter is Kutter Crawford who has drastically exceeded expectations this year. He owns a 2.45 ERA, 10.64 K/9, and 2.45 BB/9 in the first inning this season. He also threw five shutout frames against this same Orioles team back on April 10.

The bottom line is that we are expecting a real pitcher’s duel at Camden Yards on Wednesday evening. There are plenty of intriguing bets to pair with a potentially low-scoring game (such as the “under” for total runs), but the NRFI is our favorite.

Best Bet No. 2: Yu Darvish UNDER 0.5 Walks Allowed (+165)

I’m usually a sucker for betting the “over” on runs allowed, but I think we can find real value in these odds for Darvish on Wednesday evening. The right-hander remains a strong rotation option in his age-37 season, and he gets a favorable matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight.

For starters, Darvish has allowed just four walks over his last 29.2 innings of work. That breaks down to one walk over his last four outings, plus zero walks in his fifth-latest appearance on April 30. The fact that Darvish hasn’t allowed multiple walks in one game since April 14 immediately makes this line appealing at plus money.

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Furthermore, the Marlins are terrible at drawing walks. Their 125 walks rank dead last in MLB, and it’s not close. They are 19 walks behind the next closest team, the Baltimore Orioles (144). That’s a huge gap.

With Miami averaging two walks per game and Darvish avoiding walks, the recipe is certainly in place for the starter to go the distance without issuing any free passes on Wednesday.

Best Bet No. 3: Phillies vs. Giants OVER 8.0 Runs (-105)

After suggesting two “under” bets, let’s finish off the slate by betting that the Phillies-Giants game goes “over” eight runs total.

The first game of this series saw 12 runs scored, but Game 2 was a 1-0 affair. Both games swung in favor of the Giants, dropping the Phillies to 38-18 on the year. The two teams have decent starters on Wednesday in Philadelphia’s Christopher Sanchez and San Francisco’s Kyle Harrison.

With that said, it’s worth noting that the total score has gone over eight runs in 60 percent of Sanchez’s starts this season. The total has gone over eight runs in 55 percent of Harrison’s starts. There was also one instance where the total pushed at exactly eight runs (in Harrison’s outing against the Washington Nationals on April 9).

Philadelphia has seen the total exceed eight runs in exactly half of their games this year. Meanwhile, 52 percent of Giants games have gone over eight runs. With these data points in mind plus the fact that both teams are top-10 in runs scored, I’m pretty confident the score will go “over,” especially with the odds set at -105.

Phillies-Giants isn’t necessarily going to be a slugfest, but both teams have been swinging hot bats and should be able to send more than eight guys across the plate. I’d be even more excited if the line wasn’t a round number and the oddsmakers bumped it down to 7.5. But even at 8.0, I’m still throwing some money on it.


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