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Mike Trout and the theory of Most Valuable Player

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Mike Trout will likely win his third AL MVP this season. Even though the star center fielder is out for the final few weeks of the season, his candidacy is strong and his competition is not as fierce as in years past.

If Trout wins MVP, he will only be the fourth MVP since 2000 to play on a losing team (Alex Rodriguez 2003, Trout 2016, Giancarlo Stanton 2017).

Since 2000, AL MVP winners have played on teams which averaged 93.7 wins including high-water marks of 116 for Ichiro Suzuki and the 2001 Seattle Mariners and Mookie Betts and the 2018 Boston Red Sox. The AL has sent more MVPs to the World Series (2010 Josh Hamilton, 2012 Miguel Cabrera, 2017 Jose Altuve, and 2018 Betts) than the missed playoff couch (2003 Rodriguez, 2016 Trout, and probably 2019 Trout).

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For the NL, MVP winners have played on teams which averaged 92.2 wins a season with three World Series representatives and a pair of champions (2012 Buster Posey and 2016 Kris Bryant).

With the rampant success that generally follows the MVP, why are the Angels so terrible despite having one of the greatest players in MLB history?

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On the most basic level, the role of the MVP in MLB is decreased than in the NBA, NFL, and NHL. A typical baseball MVP only bats about four times a game and only has a handful of defensive plays during a game (assuming the player is a fielder). For the NBA and NHL, there are fewer players on the court/ice at a time, leading individual players to stand out and lead their teams to more victories. In the NFL, an offensive or defensive player is involved in half of the game as opposed to an MLB player’s minimal interactions.

While the other major sports generally dole out the MVP award to the best player on the best team (or the best player on a really good team), baseball seems to be a sport in which team performance does not translate to MVP votes as much as the other sports.

Is it okay for baseball to operate in this manner?

Is it okay that the MVP is on a below-average Angels team?

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The simple answer is yes. Mike Trout might retire as the greatest player to ever touch a bat. He is well on his way to three MVPs, and he accumulates WAR like humans breathe oxygen: constantly. Trout has never finished below fourth in AL MVP voting despite the Angels being rather pedestrian during his tenure in the City of Angels.

Trout has flipped baseball on its head. He has flipped sports on its head. Since the inception of competitive events, the best of the best usually triumphs. MVPs have dotted the rosters of championship teams. Trout would be the 32nd player to win three MVPs in a Big Four league (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL).

Trout would be the only player without a trip to the championship game/series.

Trout would join seven-time MVP Barry Bonds as the only three-time MVPs to not win a championship. At least Bonds played in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series.

MVPs have traditionally been successful as individuals and as part of some of the greatest teams in the history of their respective sports. Mike Trout is about to break this trend.

There are three potential paths from this:

Path 1: Nothing changes.

This is very simple. Trout continues to be the best player on the planet for the next decade or so. He accumulates countless accolades including being the second MLBer to win more than three MVPs. He likely gets to 3,000 hits and could make a play at 700 career home runs. Trout retires as the greatest to ever play the game, but he has no team silverware with the Angels, tainting his legacy.

Path 2: The MVP is renamed to “Player of the Year.”

This path stems from the traditional debate on what “value” means in sports. Is it the best player? Is it the best player on the best team? How do you find a happy medium between the two? It is nearly impossible to answer any of these questions. It is safe to say that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and he has been half a decade. Logically speaking, the MVP Award won’t change its name, and Trout will continue to rack up the official AL MVP as well as other similar awards.

Path 3: Trout drinks from the Alexander Ovechkin Cup of Success.

The “three MVP, no trips to the championship” club recently lost a member in Ovechkin as he led the Washington Capitals to the 2018 Stanley Cup. The door is always open for Trout and the Angels to improve to be a truly competitive baseball team, but they currently lack the structure to consistently win games. It certainly does not help when the Astros spew out elite young players yearly and the Athletics have reached wizard-level powers of extracting the most wins out of a low payroll. It is a steep hill to climb for Trout and the Angels, but if history is any indication, they will one day climb the hill and at least make the World Series.

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