The NFL’s free agency period doesn’t officially begin until March 13 but that’s not stopping teams from maneuvering ahead of it.
Antonio Brown’s antics finally got him out of Pittsburgh and into Oakland, who rewarded him with a big raise. Brown has been called many things as this situation played out. No matter what you believe about him, Brown is a top-three receiver in the game and an elite fantasy asset.
So how does this change Brown’s fantasy outlook?
In 2018, Brown saw 168 targets, with Juju Smith-Schuster seeing 166 targets. Some would consider 2018 a down year for Brown. His catch rate of 61.9% was his lowest in any of his full seasons. It’s tough to say Brown declined after he scored 15 touchdowns in 2018.
The player in decline is Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yards, but Ben’s film tells another story. His fantasy success in 2018 is largely due to a new career high in pass attempts with 675. If you’re counting at home, Ben’s previous career high was 608 in 2014.
So, what do we expect from Brown in Oakland? First off, he’ll be a target monster on a team with a thin receiving group. While it’s easy to expect his targets to increase, it’s also easy to expect his efficiency to drop.
Derek Carr isn’t nearly as reliable as Ben Roethlisberger even with Carr setting career highs in passing yards and completion percentage in 2018. Carr was in MVP discussions in 2016 and threw only 28 touchdowns. That number has decreased each year since and Carr topped out at 32 touchdowns in 2015.
Quarterback play is the biggest question mark for Brown going into 2019. Brown was a slam dunk late first or early second-round draft pick in redraft leagues. Expect him to slide into the late second round and possibly early third round.
Carlos Hyde joins the Chiefs
The Chiefs inked Carlos Hyde to a one-year deal after he was cut by Jacksonville. He’ll join a running back room with two Williams: Darrel and Damien. This is Hyde’s fourth franchise in 12 months.
Hyde began 2018 as the Browns’ lead back and was solid for owners based on his massive volume. He scored a touchdown in each of the first four weeks while never eclipsing 100 yards and gaining 3.4 yards per carry. Hyde was traded to Jacksonville after Week 6. His Browns career totals are 114 attempts, 382 yards, five touchdowns, and 3.4 YPC. Jacksonville barely used Hyde as Leonard Fournette returned from his injury.
Damien Williams is a fantasy football darling as he turned in a league-winning finish to his 2018. Kareem Hunt was cut after a video was released showing Hunt in an altercation with a young woman. Spencer Ware was largely viewed as Hunt’s replacement but went down with a hamstring injury in week 14 against Baltimore. Ware wouldn’t play another snap in 2018.
Williams scored twice in that game and was thrust into the starting role against the Chargers in week 15. Williams responded with: 10 rushes for 49 yards, two scores, and a 4.9 YPC. He also added six catches for 74 yards. In championship week (Week 16), Williams delivered for owners with a line of 13 carries for 103 yards, a 7.92 YPC, and 7 receptions, 37 yards, and 1 TD. In Andy Reid’s system, the lead back is very valuable for fantasy and Williams showed tremendous upside going into 2019.
The Verdict
The Chiefs expected to bring another back in with Ware leaving in free agency. The question was, would it be in the draft or free agency. Hyde joining the fold does not signal the end of Damien Williams’ fantasy production. Hyde doesn’t offer much in the passing game as he’s only had one season above 27 catches (59 in 2017 for the 49ers) and only brought in 10 passes in 2018. Williams thrives in the passing game and Hyde will take the pressure off Williams running between the tackles.
The determining factor for their draft positions will be decided by who will get the goal-line carries. Hyde seems like the early favorite for that role. Williams is still a great pick at the end of the third and early fourth round. He just has a bit more risk involved. Preseason will be a good indicator of the playing time split, but the staff and front office are behind Damien Williams. The Chiefs general manager voiced his approval of Williams and is on the record saying he hasn’t done anything to lose the job. Dynasty owners should hold tight with Williams at this point and shouldn’t make any rash decisions.
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