Tonight we have a matchup of playoff hopefuls as the 6-6 New England Patriots head out west to take on the 8-4 Los Angeles Rams. Currently, the Patriots are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in while the Rams are at the top of the NFC West division. With both teams fighting for the playoffs, we can expect a competitive game.
The team’s fan base and fantasy football players will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention. For gamblers, their only rooting interest is whatever will lead to money in their pocket. However, which bets should they place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Cam Newton Under 185.5 Passing Yards (-124)
Every week I’ve been on the under, and I’m backing it again. Over the last two weeks, Newton has a total of 153 passing yards. He has thrown for under 175 passing yards in all but three games this season. The Patriots are turning to a power run offense, further limiting Newton’s passing upside as he has 19 or fewer pass attempts in three of his past four games. Meanwhile, the Rams have held quarterbacks to 190 or fewer passing yards in a third of their games this season, including only 173 to Kyler Murray last week. Even if the number was 130.5 passing yards, I still might take the under given Newton’s performance over the past two weeks.
Jared Goff Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)
Last week Goff had only one passing touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals. It was the fourth time over his last five games with one or fewer passing touchdowns. Furthermore, Goff is averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this season and has thrown one or fewer touchdowns in half of his games. Meanwhile, the Patriots have held quarterbacks to zero passing touchdowns in half of their games this season, including against Murray two weeks ago and Justin Herbert last week. The Rams want to run the ball and limit the number of times Goff throws, further suggesting Goff will finish the game with under two passing touchdowns.
Damien Harris Over 11.5 Rushing Attempts (-121)
Since returning from a finger injury that cost him the first three games of the season, Harris has taken over as the Patriots’ lead running back. He is average 14 rushing attempts per game, registering at least 10 in all but one game this season. Furthermore, Harris has 14 or more rushing attempts in five of his past six games. Meanwhile, teams have focused on running the ball against the Rams this season, averaging over 20 rushing attempts by running backs per game. With limited weapons in the passing game, combined with Newton’s struggles throwing the ball, the Patriots have turned to a power run offense. Harris has a real chance of hitting the over on this prop before halftime.
Cam Akers Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
After struggling at the start of the season, Akers has picked up his play over the last two weeks, averaging 78 rushing yards per game. He has also scored a rushing touchdown in each contest while averaging 15 rushing attempts per game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have struggled against the run this season, giving up an average of 97.3 rushing yards per game to running backs. Furthermore, they have given up 60 or more rushing yards to running backs in all but one game. The Rams want to run the ball, and Akers should hit the over on this prop sometime in the third quarter.
Cam Newton Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-240)
You can count the number of times Newton has thrown two touchdowns this season on one hand, even if you have no fingers. Newton has only five passing touchdowns this season, failing to throw more than one in any game. Furthermore, the last time Newton threw two touchdowns in a game was over two years ago. In the 15 games since then, he has five passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Rams have held quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in eight of 12 games this season, including six of their last nine. Newton is more likely to have three rushing touchdowns tonight than two passing touchdowns.
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