Tonight we have a matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)
Tonight is just another game for Brady. If you believe that, you should believe in the tooth fairy as well. Brady has thrown 10 touchdowns this season, throwing four or more in two of the three games. He is averaging 47 pass attempts per game and a touchdown once every 9.7 completions. While the Patriots have given up three passing touchdowns this season, they have faced Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. However, they gave up two passing touchdowns to Winston on only 21 pass attempts last week. With Stephon Gilmore out for this game, Brady will pick apart the Patriots’ defense all night long. Brady is more likely to set a career-high in passing touchdowns tonight than finish with fewer than three.
Jakobi Meyers Over 5.5 Receptions (-125)
The passing game has been inconsistent for New England this season. That isn’t a surprise with the rookie Mac Jones under center. However, the lone bright spot for the Patriots’ passing attack has been Meyers. After averaging 3.7 receptions per game last season, Meyers has averaged 6.3 receptions per game this season. More importantly, Meyers has six or more receptions in two of three games this season, including nine last week against the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have given up the most receptions to wide receivers this season, giving up over 20 per game. More importantly, Meyers leads the team with 29 targets. The next closest on the team is Nelson Agholor, with 18. When the Patriots throw the ball tonight, expect Meyers to get targeted often.
Chris Godwin to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Despite facing three sub-par quarterbacks this season, the Patriots have surrendered two touchdowns to wide receivers. Furthermore, wide receivers have pulled in a touchdown in two games against the Patriots. In both games, wide receivers finished with only eight catches. Meanwhile, Godwin is 11th among wide receivers with two touchdowns this season. Furthermore, he has scored a touchdown in all three games this season after scoring a receiving touchdown in each of the first two games and a rushing touchdown last week. More importantly, Godwin leads the team in targets, averaging 8.7 per game. The Patriots will struggle to cover all of Brady’s weapons tonight. Godwin has been the most consistent receiver on the team this season, and he should have no trouble finding the end zone at least once tonight.
Mac Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (-165)
Last week, the Saints shut down the Patriots’ running game, forcing Jones to throw the ball a career-high 51 times. By comparison, Jones threw a total of 69 passes over the first two games of the season. More importantly, Jones had three interceptions last week against the Saints, including one returned for a touchdown by Malcolm Jenkins. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have four interceptions this season, returning two for a touchdown. Furthermore, the Buccaneers signed Richard Sherman earlier this week, and he will play tonight. Sherman has 36 career interceptions, including four over the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have four interceptions this season against three quarterbacks with 448 career starts. They should have no problem forcing one interception from the rookie.
Leonard Fournette Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
Unfortunately for Brady, his pass-catching running back Giovani Bernard will miss tonight’s game with a knee injury. Last week, Bernard had 10 targets, finishing first on the team in the game. Second among running backs on the team in targets is Fournette with 14. More importantly, Fournette has played 49.3 percent of the snaps this season compared to 21.9 percent for Ronald Jones. With Bernard out this week, Fournette will step in as the pass-catching back. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have given up an average of 4.7 receptions per game to running backs. Meanwhile, Brady has targeted his running backs on 22.7 percent of his passes this season. When the Patriots get pressure on him, expect Brady to look Fournette’s way.
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