Fanelli’s Fave Five Prop Bets for SNF: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Despite some concerns that this game would have to be rescheduled because of Covid-19, tonight we get a rematch of the high scoring shootout in Week 5 between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders. When these two teams met in Week 5, the Raiders gave the Chiefs their only loss of the season, winning 40-32.

Hopefully, you were able to read my favorite prop bet from every game this weekend before the games kicked off. If not, you have a chance to make some money on tonight’s game. However, which bets should you place? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.

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Darren Waller Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)

After a breakout season in 2019, Waller has backed it up with another great season this year. He has five or more receptions in all but two games this season, averaging just under six per game. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are giving up an average of only four receptions per game to tight ends. However, that number doesn’t tell the full story. In their five games where they didn’t face a pro bowl talented tight end, the Chiefs gave up seven total receptions to the position. However, in their other four games, they are giving up an average of 7.3 receptions per game to tight ends. Expect Waller to be the focal point of Raiders’ passing attack tonight, just like he was in Week 5.

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+115)

Are you going to bet against the reigning MVP? You would be foolish too. Mahomes has nine touchdowns over his last two games, throwing a touchdown once every 6.8 completions. Furthermore, Mahomes had three total touchdowns when these teams played in Week 5 and has three or more passing touchdowns in about half of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders had a huge chunk of their starting defense miss practice this week because of Covid-19 protocols. Mahomes and the Chiefs have been seeking revenge for their lone loss this season. Everyone should expect them to run the score up on the Raiders.

Josh Jacobs Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Over the last three weeks, Jacobs has quietly made a case to be in the same conversation as the elite running backs in the league. During that span, Jacobs has 306 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Jacobs has also rushed for 65 or more yards in all but two games this season. Furthermore, when these two teams played in Week 5, Jacobs had 23 rushing attempts for 77 yards. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up 72 or more rushing yards in all but one game this season. The Raiders have found success running their offense through Jacobs, so don’t expect that to change tonight.

Travis Kelce to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)

If Mahomes is going to run the score up on the Raiders, you have to expect Kelce to get at least one touchdown. He has six touchdowns this season, including one in their Week 5 meeting. Furthermore, Kelce leads the team in targets with 80. He has seen 12 or more targets in about half of his games this season. Meanwhile, much like the Chiefs, the Raiders struggle when facing a pro bowl talented tight end. In those games, the Raiders have given up a touchdown to tight ends in each contest. Kelce is Mahomes’ go-to guy, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Kelce score at least once in this game.

Derek Carr Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)

Carr got off to a hot start this season, throwing for two or more touchdowns five of his first six games. However, Carr has thrown a total of three passing touchdowns over his last three games despite facing some underwhelming defenses. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up only 11 passing touchdowns this season. Furthermore, they have held quarterbacks under two passing touchdowns in six of nine games this season, including two of their last three. With the Raiders focused on the running game and chewing up the clock, don’t expect Carr to throw two touchdowns against this tough Chiefs defense.

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