Best Prop Bet from Every NFL Week 11 Gameby Mike Fanelli November 21, 2020 2 comments
When it comes to gambling, sometimes you end the day counting your winnings, and sometimes you wonder where you went wrong. Last week was the latter for me as I went 4-9 on my 13 prop bets. However, it’s a new week and a new chance to make some money.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points.
Not only did I go 4-9 last week, but Drew Brees got hurt, and Michael Thomas forgot he was getting played to catch the ball. Despite a great matchup, Thomas had only two receptions, falling well short of the over 5.5 receptions. That cost me the bonus point and lead to me finishing the week with a 4-10 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 60-56 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 11.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-200)
Despite not practicing all week because of Covid-19 rules, Big Ben had his best game of the season last week against the Bengals. He threw for a season-high 333 yards and four touchdowns. Big Ben has thrown two or more touchdowns in all but one game this season, including four straight. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have given up two or more touchdowns in six of their last eight games, including three straight. While the 1-2 payout isn’t ideal, there is little reason to think Big Ben won’t hit the over on this before the start of the fourth quarter.
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
Hayden Hurst Over 3.5 Receptions (-124)
After a slow start to the season, Hurst has picked up his play over the last six weeks. Over that span, Hurst has at least four receptions in five of six games. Furthermore, he is averaging six targets per game this season. Meanwhile, the Saints are giving up an average of 5.3 receptions per game to tight ends. With Calvin Ridley back this week, the Saints will need to turn their defensive attention towards him, opening up a more favorable matchup for Hurst. Hurst should have no trouble catching four or more receptions for the fifth straight week.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns
Austin Hooper Over 2.5 Receptions (-157)
Hooper had only one reception last week on two targets. However, he was coming off an injury and hadn’t played since Week 6. Before the injury, Hooper had four straight games with three or more receptions, averaging 4.5 per game during that span. Meanwhile, the Eagles have struggled to slow down tight ends this season. They are giving up an average of 5.8 receptions per game to the position and have given up four or more receptions in all but one game this season. Hooper should have no trouble hitting the over on this prop before the end of the third quarter.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Football Team
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions (-162)
Washington lacks playmakers on offense. Outside of star wide receiver Terry McLaurin, Washington has one play with more than 55 targets this season; McKissic. While he has been a productive player for the team all season long, he’s seen an uptick in targets since Alex Smith starting playing. In the last two games where Smith has taken a snap, McKissic has a total of 29 targets, catching 16 of them for 108 yards. More importantly, McKissic has six or more receptions in five of his last six games. With Smith checking down left and right, don’t be surprised if McKissic hits the over on this prop by halftime. This prop is my lock of the week.
Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens
Willie Snead Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Since Baltimore’s Week 7 bye, Snead has become Lamar Jackson‘s favorite target. Over the last three games, Snead is averaging 4.7 receptions on six targets for 69 yards per game. More importantly, Snead had over 37 receiving yards in each game and has 32 or more receiving yards in just over half his games this season. Meanwhile, the Titans have struggled to slow down wide receivers this season, giving up at least 200 receiving yards to the position in six of nine games. While the Ravens don’t have a high powered passing attack, Snead could easily hit the over on this prop by halftime.
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans
Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 Receptions (-143)
The Patriots’ passing attack is far from explosive this season. However, since Julian Edelman went on injured reserve, Meyers has stepped up as the team’s top wide receiver. Over the last three games, he is averaging 7.7 receptions on 10.3 targets per game as Cam Newton trusts Meyers more than any other Patriot on the roster. Meanwhile, the Texans have been awful defending wide receivers. They have given up double-digit receptions to the position in all but one game this season. Furthermore, over the last three weeks, Meyers has 31 targets while the next closest Patriot has 11. Meyers will have no trouble pulling in five or more receptions for the fourth straight week.
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers
Adrian Peterson to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+110)
Unfortunately for the Lions, they will be without rookie sensation D’Andre Swift for tomorrow’s game as he suffered a concussion last week. To make matters worse, the Lions won’t have two of their top three wide receivers. However, this is all good news for Peterson. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 6, he should see the bulk of the work tomorrow. Meanwhile, the Panthers gave up 211 rushing yards and a touchdown to the Buccaneers’ running backs last week. Furthermore, they have given up 10 rushing touchdowns to the position this season. With Swift and several other weapons out this week, expect the Lions to lean on Peterson, especially in the red zone.
Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos
Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
Since taking over as the starting quarterback, the Dolphins are 3-0, and the rookie has played well. After his first career start, where he only threw for 93 yards and a touchdown, Tua has back-to-back games with two passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Broncos have struggled to defend the pass this season. They have given up two or more passing touchdowns in all but three games. Furthermore, the Broncos have given up three passing touchdowns in back-to-back games. Expect Tua to have the best performance of his career tomorrow and easily throw two or more passing touchdowns.
New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers
Kalen Ballage Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Can we call it a revenge game if the player was with the team for only a few weeks? Assuming we can, Ballage has revenge on his mind tomorrow when he takes on the Jets. Since being brought up to the active roster, Ballage has back-to-back games with over 65 rushing yards. More importantly, he has 33 rushing attempts over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Jets have been awful defending the run this season. They have given up 75 or more rushing yards to running backs in all but two games. With Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson out for tomorrow’s game, expect Ballage to carry the workload and easily rush for 70 or more yards.
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Hilton has struggled to get going this season as he has five or fewer targets in all but two games. Furthermore, he has more than 55 receiving yards only once and held under 45 receiving yards five of eight games, including three straight. Meanwhile, the Packers have held wide receivers under 125 receiving yards in just under half their games this season. More importantly, Jaire Alexander is off the injury report and will play tomorrow, meaning Hilton is more likely to have zero receptions than over 40.5 receiving yards.
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-143)
Despite a tough matchup last week against the Bears, Jefferson had eight receptions for 135 yards. It marked the fourth time in nine games this season that Jefferson went over the century mark. Furthermore, Jefferson has 60 or more receiving yards in over half his games this season, including five of his last seven. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have had no success slowing down wide receivers. They have given up at least 170 receiving yards to the position in all but three games this season. Furthermore, the last time they were on the field, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 272 receiving yards to the Steelers’ wide receivers. Expect a big game from Jefferson and Adam Thielen tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Over the last three weeks, Jacobs has quietly made a case to be in the same conversation as the elite running backs in the league. During that span, Jacobs has 306 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, and is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Jacobs has also rushed for 65 or more yards in all but two games this season. Furthermore, when these two teams played in Week 5, Jacobs had 23 rushing attempts for 77 yards. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have given up 72 or more rushing yards in all but one game this season. The Raiders have found success running their offense through Jacobs, so don’t expect that to change tomorrow. The best way to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field is by running Jacobs into the ground.
Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antonio Brown Over 4.5 Receptions (-165)
In the two games Brown has played this season, he is second on the team with 13 targets. The only player with more targets during that span is Mike Evans with 17. However, Evans will likely draw Jalen Ramsey Monday night, forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere. Brown’s eight targets last week were the fourth-highest any Buccaneers player has seen this season. More importantly, Brown is sure-handed, catching seven of the eight targets last week. With Evans taken away by Ramsey and Chris Godwin still battling through an injury, Brown should be Brady’s favorite target once again this week.
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