Tonight we have a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Mac Jones Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-230)
The rookie quarterback has played a critical role this season for the Patriots. However, Jones has averaged only 1.3 passing touchdowns per game this season. He has thrown under two touchdowns in 58.3 percent of the games this season, including three of the past five games. Meanwhile, the Bills have held quarterbacks to only eight passing touchdowns this season, the fewest in the NFL. They have held quarterbacks to under two passing touchdowns in all but two games this season, including six straight. Furthermore, the Bills have held quarterbacks to zero passing touchdowns in more games (five) than games they have given up over 1.5 passing touchdowns (two). While the payout is far from ideal, this prop bet is all but a lock to hit tonight.
Cole Beasley Over 3.5 Receptions (+130)
Tonight’s game will have a massive impact on the play calling for both teams. Reports are the wind will have an impact on the game. Also, there is a chance of snow during the contest. Given the forecast, expect both teams to avoid throwing downfield, which will benefit Beasley. The veteran’s numbers are down from last year, thanks to the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. However, Sanders has struggled lately. Beasley has averaged six receptions per game over the past six weeks. He had four or more in all but one of those games. More importantly, Beasley has averaged 5.6 receptions per game this season, totaling four or more in all but three contests. Beasley will hit the over on this prop bet early in the third quarter.
Damien Harris to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+150)
With the weather for tonight’s game impacting the play calling, expect the Patriots to lean on the running game more than they usually do. Harris has been productive for the Patriots this season, leading the team with eight rushing touchdowns. More importantly, Harris has averaged 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game this season, scoring at least one in six of the past seven games. Meanwhile, the Bills have struggled to slow down running backs lately. Over the past three weeks, they have given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs. Furthermore, the Bills have given up eight rushing touchdowns to running backs over their past eight six games. Harris should find the end zone at least once in this game.
Dawson Knox Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
After being a non-factor early in his career, Knox has turned into one of Josh Allen’s go-to weapons this season. However, Knox faces his toughest matchup of the season tonight. The Patriots have held tight ends to only 29.1 receiving yards per game this season, the fewest in the NFL. They have held tight ends to under 35 receiving yards in 75 percent of their games this season, including five of the past six games. Meanwhile, Knox has averaged 46.1 receiving yards per game this season; however, he has under 50 receiving yards in all but two contests. Furthermore, he has totaled 32 or fewer receiving yards in three of the past four games. Expect the Patriots to focus on shutting down Knox tonight, leading to a quiet performance.
Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-150)
While he isn’t flashy like some wide receivers, Meyers has been a consistent option for Jones this season. Meyers leads the team in receptions with 59. He has 17 more receptions than Kendrick Bourne, who is second on the team. More importantly, Meyers has averaged 4.9 receptions per game this season, totaling four or more receptions in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Bills have given up an average of 11.6 receptions per game to wide receivers this season. However, they have given up 15 or more receptions to wide receivers in two of their past three games. With the weather making it difficult to throw downfield, expect Jones to target Meyers often in this contest. He could hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
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