Tonight we have a matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers. While fans will have their eyes glued to the game, watching every play with the utmost attention, gamblers only care about making money. However, which bets will lead to cash in their pockets? Here are my five favorite prop bets for tonight’s game.
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Be sure to check out all of my Fave Five Prop Bets.
Diontae Johnson Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The third-year wide receiver has averaged 6.7 receptions for 79 receiving yards per game this season. Johnson has at least 71 receiving yards in five straight games, averaging 87.6 receiving yards per game during that span. More importantly, Johnson has a 23.4 percent target share this season. He has seen a target on 18.3 percent of the snaps he has played this year. Meanwhile, the Bears have struggled to defend wide receivers this season. They have given up the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers entering Week 9. Over their past three games, the Bears have given up an average of 123.7 receiving yards per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers. Johnson will finish tonight’s game with at least 100 receiving yards.
Justin Fields Under 180.5 Passing Yards (-115)
In the six games as the starter this season, Fields has averaged only 153.5 passing yards per game. He has thrown for under 185 yards in all but one game this season. Despite good matchups the past two weeks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers, Fields averaged only 179.5 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Steelers have held quarterbacks to only 228.4 passing yards per game over their past five contests. They have also held Joe Burrow to only 172 passing yards and Aaron Rodgers to 248 passing yards this season. Furthermore, the Steelers have held quarterbacks to only 217 passing yards per game over their past two contests. While the future is bright for Fields, he will struggle to throw the ball in tonight’s game.
Najee Harris Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
After a slow start to his rookie season, Harris has been near unstoppable over the past few weeks. Harris averaged only 13.8 rushing attempts and 46.3 rushing yards per game over the first four games this season. However, he has averaged 24.3 rushing attempts for 98 rushing yards per game over the past three games. Meanwhile, the Bears have given up the third-most rushing yards to running backs entering Week 9. They have given up an average of 112.9 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. More importantly, the Bears have given up an average of 149 rushing yards per game to running backs over the past three weeks. Given how well he has plenty recently, Harris might hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
Darnell Mooney Over 3.5 Receptions (-110)
Entering his second year in the NFL, many had high expectations for Mooney. He got off to a slow start, averaging four receptions for 33.7 receiving yards per game over the first three games of the season. However, Mooney has picked up his play recently, averaging 4.2 receptions for 61.6 receiving yards per game over the past five weeks. He has finished with five or more receptions in 60 percent of the games during that span. Meanwhile, the Steelers have given up an average of 13.7 receptions per game to wide receivers this season, including 16 or more receptions twice. Since Week 4, Mooney has led the team in targets, averaging 6.8 targets per game. Expect Fields to target Mooney plenty in tonight’s matchup.
Ben Roethlisberger Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
While the Steelers might not have a better option, Roethlisberger has struggled this season. Big Ben averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game last season, throwing at least two in 80 percent of the games. By comparison, Roethlisberger has averaged only 1.1 passing touchdowns per game this season, throwing over 1.5 touchdowns in a game only once. Meanwhile, the Bears have held quarterbacks to only 1.8 passing touchdowns per game this season. They have held quarterbacks to under 1.5 passing touchdowns in almost half the games this season, including last week. Furthermore, removing the matchup against Tom Brady, the Bears have held quarterbacks to 10 passing touchdowns this season, giving up only 1.4 per game. The Bears should have no trouble keeping Roethlisberger to under two passing touchdowns tonight.
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