Fanelli’s Fantasy Files: NFC West ADP Values, Busts, and Sleepers

Football is back! With the preseason underway, fantasy players are doing mock drafts hourly (or maybe it’s just me) to prepare for their fantasy drafts. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential. In the fourth part of an eight-part series, I will look over the NFC West and provide ADP values, likely to bust candidates and potential sleepers.

Players ADP is from Fantasy Pro’s PPR ADP.

Be sure to check out all eight parts of Fanelli’s ADP values, busts, and sleepers series.

Values

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (RB26, 68.8 ADP)

Despite splitting time with Kenyan Drake last season, Edmonds finished as the RB25, averaging 10.5 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Edmonds’ 53 catches were two away from finishing second on the team despite playing only 46.7 percent of the snaps last season. Even with splitting time, Edmonds finished as a top-24 running back in half of his games. In the offseason, Drake signed with the Las Vegas Raiders. To replace him, the Cardinals added James Conner. However, Conner has struggled to stay healthy, missing 22 percent of the games in his career. While Kyler Murray will steal some red zone touchdowns from Edmonds, he is currently being drafted at his floor.

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers (RB33, 97.0 ADP)

Last season, the 49ers had three running backs run for over 300 yards, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson, and Raheem Mostert. However, McKinnon is now in Kansas City, while Wilson will miss part of the season with an injury. That leaves Mostert as the starter. However, after missing eight games last season, reports are the 49ers don’t trust him as the lead back. While they added Wayne Gallman in the offseason, his roster spot isn’t secured as his contract is non-guaranteed. Furthermore, beat reporters believe Sermon has a good chance to earn a featured role early in the season. If Sermon can secure the featured role in this offense, he will have no trouble finishing as a top-20 running back.

Busts

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (WR24, 62.2 ADP)

In his rookie season, Aiyuk was two different players. During the six games he played with George Kittle, Aiyuk averaged 5.5 targets and 12.9 fantasy points per game. In those six games, Aiyuk had only two with over six targets and 17.5 fantasy points. By comparison, in the six games he played with Kittle, Aiyuk averaged 10.5 targets and 18.3 fantasy points per game. In those six games, Aiyuk had only one with under eight targets and 19.7 fantasy points. Furthermore, that one game was Aiyuk’s first career game in Week 2. Moreover, Deebo Samuel will also return from injury this season, further cutting into Aiyuk’s 23.2 percent target share from last season. The return on a healthy Kittle and Samuel will impact Aiyuk’s target share and fantasy value.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (RB25, 66.8 ADP)

Before tearing his Achilles, Cam Akers was in line for a featured workload and a likely top-10 finish. However, with Akers out of the year, Henderson will take over as the lead back. From Week 2 through Week 7 last season, Henderson averaged 14 rushing attempts and 14.1 fantasy points per game. While the Rams haven’t signed a veteran running back, reports are that door isn’t closed for good. As we get closer to the start of the season, the Rams could add a veteran. If they do, Henderson will find himself in a messy running back committee situation. Between the uncertainly and Henderson’s injury history, drafting him ahead of running backs with more upside like Javonte Williams and Michael Carter is a mistake.

Sleepers

Xavier Jones, Los Angeles Rams (RB58, 160.3 ADP)

Unless or until the Rams sign a veteran running back, 2021 seven-round pick Jake Funk and 2020 undrafted free agent Jones will battle it out in camp to be Henderson’s backup. Rumor is the Rams are high on Jones, and he should be the favorite to earn the No. 2 running back role. Furthermore, some even believe he could take over as the starter this season if Henderson misses time with an injury. With Akers out for the year, the Rams backfield is no longer clear. While Henderson is the only Rams running back you should draft before the last few rounds of your draft, keep an eye on Jones. If the Rams don’t add a veteran, using a late-round pick on Jones is a wise move to make.

Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks (TE22, 191.8 ADP)

During his time with the Rams, Everett never turned into a consistent fantasy player, averaging 5.3 fantasy points per game for his career. However, Everett has produced for fantasy owners in the past when given a chance. For his career, Everett has 19 games with 10 or more fantasy points. In Seattle, Everett will take over as the clear starting tight end in an offense expected to let Russell Wilson cook this season. Last year, the Seahawks targeted their tight ends 108 times. Other than D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks lack proven weapons. Expect Everett to be used as a mismatch move tight end, and have several massive performances as defenses focus on stopping Metcalf and Lockett. Therefore, Everett should have no trouble finishing as a top-12 tight end this year.