It’s Week 9, and we are halfway through the 2020 NFL season. While it seems like the season just started, we still plenty of football to come. On Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers destroyed the San Francisco 49ers, 34-17. In my Fave Five from Thursday, I went 3-2 as Davante Adams easily hit on both of his prop bets.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week, I struggled, going 3-10. However, Cam Newton threw for under 189.5 passing yards, giving me the bonus point for my lock of the week. With the bonus point, I finished the week with a 4-10 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 48-54 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 9.
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Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts
Willie Snead Over 2.5 Receptions (+120)
Last week, Snead had a season-high five catches for 106 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Snead had been a non-factor for most of the season, but Lamar Jackson targeted him seven times last week, highest on the team. Meanwhile, the Colts have struggled to slow down wide receivers over their last four games, giving up an average of 15 receptions for 212 yards. Don’t be surprised if Snead hits the over on this bet sometime in the second quarter.
Seattle Seahawks vs Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receptions (-182)
Diggs has been an excellent addition for the Bills and turned Josh Allen into a pro bowl quarterback while making the Bills’ passing attack dangerous. He has six or more catches in all but one game this season. Furthermore, he has six or more in five straight games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have had no answer to slow down wide receivers this season. They are giving up an average of 21.6 receptions per game to wide receivers. This game should be a shootout, and Allen will look Diggs’ way early and often. He should hit the over on this prop before halftime.
Carolina Panthers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-115)
There isn’t a better tight end in football than Kelce, as he has scored a touchdown in five of eight games this season. Furthermore, Kelce has four touchdowns over his last four games. During that span, he is averaging 8.5 targets per game. Meanwhile, the Panthers have given up a touchdown to the tight end position in three of their last four games. Patrick Mahomes likes to look Kelce’s way early in the game, so don’t be surprised if Kelce scores the first touchdown of the game for the Chiefs.
New York Giants vs Washington Football Team
Evan Engram Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
After a slow start to the season, Engram’s role in the offense has picked up over the last two weeks. During that span, he has 11 catches on 19 targets for 107 yards. In both games, Engram had at least five catches. Meanwhile, Washington has given up four or more receptions to tight ends in five of seven games this season. Reportedly, Golden Tate won’t play tomorrow after his behavior on social media, opening up even more targets for Engram.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
James Robinson Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
The Texans have given up 88 or more rushing yards to running backs in six of seven games this season. Ironically, the one exception was Week 5 against the Jaguars. However, the Jaguars will be without Gardner Minshew for this game as he is out with a thumb injury. Meanwhile, Robinson is coming off a career game, rushing 22 times for 119 yards last week. Robinson has rushed for 75 or more yards in about half his games this season. With a rookie quarterback making his first career start, the Jaguars will lean on Robinson even more.
Chicago Bears vs Tennessee Titans
Allen Robinson Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Whether it’s Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles under center, Robinson is the Bears’ go-to receiver. Robinson has 70 or more receiving yards in 75 percent of his games this season, including five of his last six. Meanwhile, the Titans have had no answer for wide receivers this season. They have given up at least 175 receiving yards to wide receivers in six straight games. Furthermore, the Titans have given up 205 or more receiving yards to wide receivers in all but two games this season. Robinson should have no problem hitting the over on this prop before the start of the fourth quarter.
Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons
Drew Lock Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-157)
Last week, Lock had his first game this season with more than one passing touchdown. However, he missed a few games with a shoulder injury and finally got healthy last week. Against the Chargers, Lock had a season-high 41 pass attempts and three passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Falcons have given up an average of 2.5 passing touchdowns per game. Furthermore, they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw three or more passing touchdowns in half of their games this season. This game should be a shootout, and Lock should have no trouble tossing two or more touchdowns.
Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-261)
Yes, this is a very heavy price to pay, but if you know the prop is going to hit, the price doesn’t matter. Cook is coming off his best game of the season, rushing 30 times for 163 yards and three touchdowns. He has scored at least one touchdown in every contest this season and has scored two or more touchdowns in half of his games. Meanwhile, the Lions have struggled to stop the run this season. They have given up 100 or more rushing yards in more than half of their games. Furthermore, they have given up six rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last four outings. The Vikings have leaned on Cook all season long, so expect them to do the same tomorrow.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)
Both Joe Burrow and Herbert look like future stars in the league. Over his last four games, Herbert has 13 passing touchdowns, throwing for at least three in every game despite facing some good defenses during that span. This week, Herbert gets the Raiders, who have given up two or more passing touchdowns in three of their last four games. The Chargers will be without Austin Ekeler again this week, putting even more of the offense on Herbert’s right arm. This prop is my lock of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)
Big Ben has shown no signs of rust this season, coming off elbow surgery last year. He has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but one game this season. Furthermore, Big Ben has at least 32 pass attempts all but one game this year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have struggled against defending the pass. They have given up at least two passing touchdowns in six of their last seven games. The exception during that span was when they faced Daniel Jones. Furthermore, the Cowboys are giving up an average of two passing touchdowns per game this season. Don’t be surprised if Big Ben throws his second touchdown of the game before the end of the first quarter.
Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Not only has Murray been fantastic throwing the ball this season, but he is among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns. Murray is averaging a rushing touchdown per game this season and has at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have struggled against elite quarterbacks this season. Furthermore, they haven’t faced a quarterback with a similar mobility level as Murray. With Kenyan Drake out for tomorrow’s game, expect the Cardinals to give Murray more opportunities to run the ball than they usually do.
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165)
In Week 1, these two teams faced off, and Brady threw for two touchdowns in that game. However, since then, the Buccaneers’ offense has started to click, as Brady is averaging just under three passing touchdowns per game over his last six games. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up at least two passing touchdowns in every game this season. Furthermore, they have given up three or more passing touchdowns in four of their last six games. Brady will have Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski on prime time television tomorrow. Don’t be surprised if he makes a statement game and throws five touchdowns.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-105)
The Patriots offense is far from impressive on paper. Newton has struggled to throw the ball. Julian Edelman is on injured reserve while N’Keal Harry is dealing with a concussion and didn’t practice Friday. Unless he can clear protocol, Harry won’t play Monday night. With Edelman and Harry likely out, that opens up more targets for Meyers. In each of his last two games, Meyers has four or more receptions. Furthermore, he has 16 of his 17 targets this season over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have given up 18 or more receptions to wide receivers in half of their games this season. Expect Meyers to have his third straight game with four or more receptions on Monday night.
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