Thursday night’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears turned out to be more of a defensive struggle than a shootout between former Super Bowl MVPs. Hopefully, most of you were able to cash in on the lower than expected game as the under barely hit.
In addition to betting the spread, Moneyline, or the over/under total, you can also bet on what are called “props”. These are usually things like a certain player to throw for over/under a number of yards, or a certain player to score a touchdown. However, they aren’t limited to those two examples.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Last week I went 7-7, as Darrell Henderson and the Los Angeles Rams offense struggled, costing me my bonus point. After missing out on the bonus point, I finished the week with a 7-8 record. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 22-25 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 5.
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Unfortunately, due to Covid-19 and the uncertainty of the playability of the games, both the Denver Broncos/New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills/Tennessee Titans games did not have any gambling options available at the time of writing. However, be on the lookout for game-specific bets for these two contests on Monday and Tuesday.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson Under 25.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
While Watson should have a big game against the Jaguars, expect it to be from inside the pocket. Watson has rushed for more than 23 yards only once this season when he had 27 rushing yards in Week 1. Since then, Watson has rushed for a total of 31 yards on 11 attempts over the last three games. The Jaguars know that if they let Watson out of the pocket, they’ve already lost on the play. Given his recent history and the matchup, expect Watson to have under 20 rushing yards for the third straight game.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
A.J. Green Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
This season has been a disaster for Green. He has failed to finish a game with more than 55 receiving yards this season. Furthermore, despite averaging 8.3 targets per game, Green is catching just 42.4 percent of them and has failed to find the end zone this season. To make matters worse, Green’s role in the offense is shrinking. Green has failed to go over 36 receiving yards in three straight games. Furthermore, he caught just one of his five targets last week for three yards against an awful Jaguars secondary. Now he takes on a talent Ravens secondary. Don’t be surprised if Green is held without a catch tomorrow.
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
Todd Gurley to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)
While he didn’t turn back into the star he was with the Los Angeles Rams years ago, Gurley has had a solid start to the 2020 season. He has scored four rushing touchdowns this season after scoring twice last week against a good Green Bay Packers unit. This week, Gurley faces the Panthers, who are one of the worst teams against the run this season. The Panthers have given up seven rushing touchdowns this year. With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley banged up, look for the Falcons to focus on the running game even more this week.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs
Tyreek Hill to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-143)
The Raiders secondary is full of younger players, and they tend to make mistakes. Hill has scored a touchdown in every game this season while catching 65.5 percent of his targets. Furthermore, the Raiders gave up 239 receiving yards and two touchdowns to the Bills’ wide receivers last week. With Patrick Mahomes having his way with a young Raiders secondary, don’t be surprised if Tyreek scores twice tomorrow.
Arizona Cardinals vs New York Jets
Chase Edmonds to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+160)
While many had high hopes for Kenyan Drake entering the season, Edmonds is starting to cut into Drake’s workload. Last week, Edmonds had a season-high five catches for 24 yards and a touchdown. Edmonds has averaged at least four yards per carry in three of four games this season and now has a great matchup against the Jets. Over their last three games, the Jets have given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs, including two last week to Melvin Gordon. If Edmonds continues to see more snaps this week, expect him to get in the end zone before the start of the fourth quarter.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-165)
So far this season, Roethlisberger has shown no signs of rust coming off elbow surgery last season. He has thrown seven touchdowns this season and at least two in every game. Meanwhile, the Eagles are dealing with injuries on defense, and despite not facing a quarterback with the same level of talent as Big Ben this season, they have given up seven passing touchdowns. After being unhappy with their last-minute adjusted bye week, look for Big Ben to come out firing against the in-state rival.
Los Angeles Rams vs Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+150)
With the change at quarterback, expect Washington to give Gibson his highest number of touches this season against the Rams. Gibson has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last three games despite averaging less than 12 carries per game. With Jalen Ramsey likely slowing down Terry McLaurin, expect Gibson to see an uptick in targets. Between his work on the ground and his targets, Gibson could very easily get in the end zone before halftime.
Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Even at almost 38 years old, Fitzpatrick can still run. Fitzpatrick has rushed for at least 18 yards in three of four games this season. Furthermore, over the last two weeks, Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.5 attempts for 42.5 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown per game. When defenses turn their back on him, he’s not afraid to take off and run. Meanwhile, the 49ers have struggled to slow down mobile quarterbacks. They have given up an average of 46 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, allowing them to rush for over 35 yards in three of their four games. Do not be surprised if Fitzpatrick hits the over on this bet before halftime. This is my lock of the week bet.
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
Amari Cooper Over 5.5 Receptions (-162)
There may not be a hotter wide receiver in the game than Cooper right now. So far this season, Cooper has seen at least nine targets in every game while averaging 12.8 per game. Furthermore, Cooper has caught at least six balls in every game while averaging 9.3 per game. The Cowboys have turned into a passing machine this season, and Cooper has been the biggest benefactor of it. Meanwhile, the Giants have a young and inexperienced secondary. Expect Cooper to have his fifth straight game with six or more catches tomorrow.
Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-112)
The Browns are winning games, yet Mayfield isn’t throwing the ball a lot. He has thrown more than 30 times just once (their Week 1 loss) and has failed to throw for over 220 yards in any game this season. Furthermore, Mayfield has thrown for under 190 yards in three of four games this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have been one of the best defenses against the pass this season. So far this year, the Colts have given up an average of only 175.8 passing yards per game. Furthermore, they have held opposing quarterbacks under 175 passing yards in three of their four games this season. If the Browns are going to win, it won’t be because of Mayfield’s arm.
Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-155)
After his big Week 3 game against the Cowboys, where he had three touchdowns, Lockett caught only two passes for 39 yards last week. However, he should bounce back this week against an awful Vikings secondary. So far this season, the Vikings have given up seven touchdowns to wide receivers, including two last week to the Texans. Furthermore, the Vikings have struggled to stop the deep ball this season, which means Lockett should have a field day tomorrow night.
Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints
Joshua Kelley to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+150)
Kelley has struggled over the last few weeks, but with Austin Ekeler landing on injured reserve, Kelley will be in prime position as the Chargers’ new featured back. While he hasn’t scored since Week 1, Kelley will see plenty of work Monday night. Despite splitting time with Ekeler, Kelley still averaged 14.8 touches per game. Meanwhile, the Saints have given up a rushing touchdown to an opposing running back in each of their last three games. With Ekeler out of the picture, don’t be surprised if Kelley has 25 touches Monday night and ends up in the end zone twice.
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