Merry Christmas, everyone! Hopefully, you got to spend yesterday with loved ones and enjoy the performance Alvin Kamara put on. He tied an NFL record with six rushing touchdowns against the Minnesota Vikings. Kamara was -225 to score once, and if you had the guts to bet him to score three times, you made out great.
To recap, last week, I had a horrible week, going 3-11 on my 14 prop bets. I did get the bonus point after T.Y. Hilton went over his receiving yards total, bringing my record for the week to 4-11. As a side note, with Ezekiel Elliott not playing last week, his prop bet didn’t count for my article. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 88-102 record for the season (46 percent) and dive into the best prop bets for Week 16.
All props are from DraftKings. Sign up today with my code and make a $25 deposit to receive a free $25 bet!
Unfortunately, at the time of writing, prop bets weren’t available for the Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots game. However, be on the lookout for my Fave Five article for that game Monday morning.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions
Leonard Fournette to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Last week, Fournette got the start with Ronald Jones on the Covid-19 list and had two rushing touchdowns. He has three rushing touchdowns over his past three games and is in line for a featured role today as Jones will miss the game. Meanwhile, the Lions have been awful defending the run this season. They have given up 17 rushing touchdowns to running backs, including three over their last three games. While Tom Brady should have a big performance, expect Fournette to fall into the end zone at least once.
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray Under 259.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Murray is averaging 259.8 passing yards per game this season. However, since suffering the shoulder injury a few weeks ago, his passing numbers have struggled. Over his last four games, Murray is averaging 248.3 passing yards per game. However, he threw for under 245 yards in three of those games and under 175 twice. Meanwhile, the 49ers have done a good job shutting down quarterbacks lately. Over their last five games, they have held quarterbacks under 210 passing yards in four of them. Furthermore, in their matchup earlier this season, Murray threw for only 230 yards against the 49ers.
Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
Myles Gaskin Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
After missing the last two weeks on the Covid-19 list, Gaskin will start tonight. Before going on the list, Gaskin had 90 rushing yards in his last game. Furthermore, Gaskin is averaging just under 60 rushing yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled to slow down running backs this season, giving up an average of 107.1 rushing yards per game to the position. They have given up 120 or more rushing yards to running backs in three of their last four games. Expect Gaskin to hit the over on this prop bet by halftime.
New York Giants vs Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins to Score an Anytime Touchdown (+140)
Over his last four games, Dobbins has taken over as the lead back in Baltimore, scoring a rushing touchdown in every game. More importantly, Dobbins is averaging over 13 rushing attempts per game during that span, compared to 6.3 rushing attempts per game over his first nine games this season. Meanwhile, the Giants have given up 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, including one in each of their last two games. The Ravens’ offense is centered around the running game and after the Giants gave up 207 rushing yards over their past two weeks, expect Dobbins to have a big performance.
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
Austin Hooper Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The 2020 season hasn’t gone the way Hooper had hoped after signing a massive deal with the Browns in free agency. Hooper is averaging just under 30 receiving yards per game this season, recording 24 or more in seven of 11 games, including two straight. Meanwhile, the Jets have been awful at defending tight ends this season. They have given up 26 or more receiving yards to the position in all but one game this season. Furthermore, over their last four games, tight ends have averaged just under 104 receiving yards against the Jets. Don’t be surprised if Hooper has his first game with over 60 receiving yards this season.
Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars
David Montgomery to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-175)
Since the Bears’ bye week, Montgomery has been one of the best running backs in the league. Over the last four weeks, Montgomery has six total touchdowns after scoring two touchdowns in his first nine games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the league stopping running backs this season, giving up 13 rushing touchdowns to the position. Furthermore, the Jaguars have given up five rushing touchdowns to running backs over their last five games, including three over their past two. The Bears have had success lately feeding Montgomery, so expect another big performance out of him this week.
Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (-108)
Mahomes is averaging just under three passing touchdowns this season and is coming off a three-touchdown performance last week against the Saints. Furthermore, Mahomes has 20 passing touchdowns over his past seven games. He has thrown three or more passing touchdowns in about half of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are giving up two passing touchdowns per game this season, giving up three or more in about a quarter of their games. Mahomes can get hot at the drop of a hat and against the defense that gave up three passing touchdowns last week, expect him to throw at least three against the Falcons’ struggling defense.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-105)
While the Texans’ season hasn’t gone the way they had hoped, Watson is putting together another Pro Bowl season. He is averaging 295.3 passing yards per game this season, throwing for 275 or more yards in 71 percent of his games. Furthermore, Watson has thrown for 315 or more yards in four of his last five games. While the Bengals’ pass defense has been better lately, Watson should have no trouble throwing for over 300 yards in this game.
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Philip Rivers Under 257.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Over his last five games, Rivers has at least two passing touchdowns in every contest. During that span, Rivers is averaging 268 passing yards per game. However, Rivers is averaging 236 passing yards per game over his last two games. Meanwhile, the Steelers have held quarterbacks to only 202 passing yards per game this season. They have held quarterbacks under 155 passing yards in three of their last five games. This game features two of the best defenses in the league, so don’t expect much passing from either team.
Carolina Panthers vs Washington Football Team
Teddy Bridgewater Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105)
In his first season as the starting quarterback, Bridgewater has played well for the Panthers. However, he has only thrown 14 touchdowns in 13 games. Furthermore, Bridgewater has thrown two or more touchdowns in only 39 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, Washington has given up only 1.4 passing touchdowns per game this season, holding quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in four of their last five games. They have held quarterbacks under two passing touchdowns in over half of their games this season. Bridgewater has two straight games without a passing touchdown, and it could become three straight tomorrow.
Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The rookie signal-caller has played great this season, averaging 291 passing yards per game. He has thrown 260 or more yards in 77 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos have given up 275 or more passing yards in half of their games this season, including 278 to Herbert in their Week 8 matchup. Herbert has thrown for 300 or more yards in over half of his games this season and could easily do it again tomorrow against the Broncos.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys
Jalen Hurts Over 9.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)
After making a change at quarterback, the Eagles changed their playbook as well. They have taken advantage of Hurts’ running ability, giving him 14.5 rushing attempts per game as the starter. Hurts has shown success throwing the ball, averaging 52.5 passing yards per game over the last two weeks. Facing a struggling Cowboys run defense, expect the Eagles to build a run-heavy game plan around Hurts and Miles Sanders. Hurts could easily hit the over on this prop bet before halftime.
Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+150)
At the start of the season, Wilson was playing at an MVP level. He was averaging 3.5 passing touchdowns per game over his first eight games of the season. However, over his last six games, Wilson is averaging 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. He has thrown one or fewer touchdowns in three of his past four games. Meanwhile, the Rams have held quarterbacks to only 1.1 passing touchdowns per game this season. They have held quarterbacks to one or fewer passing touchdowns in 71 percent of their games. In their Week 10 matchup, Wilson had a season-low zero passing touchdowns and will be lucky to throw one in this game.
Tennessee Titans vs Green Bay Packers
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Davante Adams to Score an Anytime Touchdown (-165)
Last week, Adams failed to score a touchdown against the Panthers, making it only the third game this season that he didn’t find the end zone. However, before that game, Adams had scored 12 touchdowns over his last eight games. Tomorrow night, Adams should get back on track against the Titans. They have given up 16 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, including at least one in four straight games. The Packers need to win this game to maintain their lead for the top seed in the NFC Playoffs, so expect Adams to find the end zone at least once, if not twice, tomorrow night. This prop is my lock of the week.
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