Hopefully, everyone had a great Thanksgiving and made some money on the two NFL games. If not, you have a chance to make some this weekend as we have 14 games over the next few days. To recap last week: it was a rough week. J.D. McKissic failed to over 4.5 receptions for the first time since Alex Smith took over as the starter. This was because Washington pulled ahead after the unfortunate injury to Joe Burrow. After getting the lock of the week wrong, I finished Week 11 with a 5-9 record. However, it’s a new week and a new chance to make some money.
Each week, I will give my favorite prop bet from each game for the weekend. To have a little fun with it, I will be keeping track of how many prop bets I correctly predict. In addition, I will select one bet as my lock of the week. If it hits, I get a bonus point, but if I’m wrong, I lose two points. Despite my poor performance last week, I’ve still have won 50 percent of my props this year. Probably none of you care about this, so without further ado, I take my 65-65 record for the season and dive into the best prop bets for Week 12.
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Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
Jamison Crowder Over 4.5 Receptions (-140)
Since returning from injury, Crowder has a total of three receptions in two games with Joe Flacco under center. However, Sam Darnold will start tomorrow, and Crowder is his favorite target. Over his first four games of the season, Crowder had at least seven receptions and 10 targets in each game. Furthermore, when these two teams played in Week 6, Crowder caught seven of 13 targets with Flacco under center. While Denzel Mims has taken on a bigger role in the offense recently, Crowder is still the guy Darnold leans on.
Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Nick Chubb Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-117)
The Browns’ gameplan is very simple: run the ball down the other team’s throat until they prove they can stop us. Removing the Week 4 game where Chubb left early with a knee injury, he has 19 or more rushing attempts and over 100 rushing yards in four straight games. Meanwhile, the teams are averaging 23.8 rushing attempts per game against the Jaguars this season. Furthermore, the Jaguars have given up over 100 rushing yards in half of their games. Even with Kareem Hunt cutting into his workload, Chubb is a lock to finish tomorrow’s game with 20 or more rushing attempts.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills
🔒 Lock of the Week 🔒 Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-177)
After a couple of down games, Allen has bounced back over his last two outings, throwing five total touchdowns against zero interceptions. Allen has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 80 percent of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are giving up two passing touchdowns per game this season. Furthermore, they have given up two or more in eight of their last nine games, including five straight. This game should be a shootout, so expect both quarterbacks to throw at least two touchdown passes. This prop bet is my lock of the week.
New York Giants vs Cincinnati Bengals
Tyler Boyd Over 4.5 Receptions (-112)
While the Bengals will be without Burrow for the rest of the season, Brandon Allen takes over as the starting quarterback and has some starting experience from last season. Allen knows Zac Taylor’s offense from their time together with the Rams and should have a full playbook available to him tomorrow. That’s good news for Boyd as he is the focal point of the Bengals’ passing attack. He has at least five receptions in 70 percent of his games this season, including four straight. Meanwhile, Boyd will be matched up against the rookie Darnay Holmes, and according to PFF, he is allowing 80 percent of the passes thrown his way to be caught. Expect Boyd to go over on his prop before the end of the third quarter.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons
Nelson Agholor Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-134)
Since Week 4, Agholor’s role in the offense has grown. Over his last six games, Agholor has 55 or more receiving yards in four of them, scoring a touchdown in each game as well. Last week he saw a season-high nine targets against the Chiefs’ tough defense, catching six of them for 88 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons can’t stop a nose bleed, let alone a speedy wide receiver. They have given up over 200 receiving yards to wide receivers in 70 percent of their games this season. Don’t be surprised if Agholor hits the over on this prop before halftime.
Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots
Damien Harris Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-121)
After starting the season on injured reserve because of a finger injury, Harris has taken over as the Patriots’ lead running back. He has rushed for 55 or more yards in five of his seven games this season. Furthermore, he is averaging 73.4 rushing yards on 13.7 rushing attempts per game. Meanwhile, the Cardinals gave up 123 rushing yards to Seahawks’ running backs last week and have given up over 90 rushing yards to running backs in 80 percent of their games this season. Harris should have no trouble rushing for over 55 yards for the sixth time this season tomorrow.
Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When these teams met two weeks ago, it was Pittman’s breakout game. He pulled in seven of eight targets for 101 receiving yards. Furthermore, Pittman has three straight games with 55 or more receiving yards and has taken over as Philip Rivers‘ go-to wide receiver. Meanwhile, the Titans have given up an average of 196 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Pittman had over half of the Colts’ wide receivers yards two weeks ago against the Titans. Combine that with his hot play the last three weeks, and there is no way Pittman finishes tomorrow’s game with less than 75 receiving yards.
Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-167)
After missing last week’s game with a knee injury, Bridgewater will start tomorrow. While this isn’t a revenge game as the Vikings’ organization and Bridgewater have a good relationship but it’s still the first time he is facing the Vikings in his career, and we should expect him to have a big game. Bridgewater has thrown two passing touchdowns in five of his last seven games. Meanwhile, the Vikings are giving up an average of 2.2 passing touchdowns per game. Furthermore, they have given up three or more passing touchdowns in half of their games this season. With the explosive trio of wide receivers at his disposal, don’t be surprised if Bridgewater has his first three passing touchdown game of the year.
New Orleans Saints vs Denver Broncos
KJ Hamler Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Over the last three weeks, Hamler’s role in the offense has grown. After a total of 18 targets in the first five games of his career, Hamler is averaging just under nine per game over his last three games. During that span, Hamler is averaging 53.3 receiving yards per game, recording at least 35 in every contest. Meanwhile, the Saints are giving up an average of 171.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Furthermore, they have given up over 215 receiving yards to wide receivers in 60 percent of their games since the bye week. With his expanding role in the offense, Hamler should hit the over on this prop sometime early in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
The Rams’ backfield is a three-headed monster, but no head has taken the lead. Henderson looked like the lead guy a few weeks ago, but his play has fallen off a cliff lately. Over his last three games, Henderson is averaging only 3.5 yards per attempt and has eight or fewer rushing attempts in all three games. Furthermore, Henderson has eight or fewer rushing attempts in half of his games this season. Meanwhile, the Rams ran the ball only 16 times in their Week 6 matchup against the 49ers and found success throwing the ball last week. Expect Henderson to have his fourth straight game with under 10 rushing attempts.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (+100)
Like every year, Kelce has been on fire this season, averaging 6.6 receptions for 89.6 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he has been unstoppable over his last three games, averaging 8.7 receptions for 131.7 receiving yards per game. Kelce has seven or more receptions in half of his games this season, including three straight. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have struggled to slow down tight ends recently, giving up seven or more receptions to the position in four of their last five games. This game will be a shootout so expect Kelce to have one of his best performances of the season.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
David Montgomery Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Montgomery missed the Week 10 game against the Vikings with a concussion but passed the NFL’s concussion protocol during the bye week and is ready to go for tomorrow’s game. He’s back just in time to take on the Packers, who have one of the worst run defenses in the league. They are giving up an average of 101.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. Furthermore, they have given up 70 or more rushing yards to running backs in 80 percent of their games this season. Don’t be surprised if Montgomery goes over this prop before halftime.
Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Reagor Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The rookie hasn’t had the ideal first year in the league, missing five games because of an injury. However, Reagor has 41 or more receiving yards in four of the five games he’s played this season, including 47 or more receiving yards in two straight games. Since the Eagles’ bye week, Reagor is averaging four receptions on six targets for 49.5 receiving yards per game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been awful against the pass this season, giving up an average of 260 receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Reagor is becoming Carson Wentz‘s go-to target, and he should hit the over on this prop bet sometime in the third quarter.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160)
Until Big Ben lets us down, we will continue to hammer the over on this prop. Big Ben is averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game this season and has thrown two or more in all but one game, including five straight. Meanwhile, the Ravens have given up two or more passing touchdowns in three of their last five games, including two to Big Ben in Week 8. Despite throwing for his second-fewest pass attempts in a game during the Week 8 matchup, Big Ben was still able to toss two touchdowns. Tonight’s game should require more of him, and he is more likely to throw three touchdowns than one or fewer.
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